6857.T (6857.T)

$15.19T
Market Cap
58.9
P/E Ratio
0.86
Beta
0.22%
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 8/9Altman Z 29.2 SafeROIC−WACC +23.2%

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 8/9, Altman Z 29.2 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold).

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Algorithmic Teardown

AI-Generated

The capital allocation profile exhibits exceptional efficiency, characterized by a robust Return on Invested Capital of 33.4% against a Weighted Average Cost of Capital of 10.2%, generating a substantial spread of +23.2%. This high ROIC is underpinned primarily by superior profitability rather than leverage or turnover acceleration, as evidenced by the expansive net margin of 20.7% and gross margin of 57.1%, which collectively drive an elevated Return on Equity without relying on financial engineering. The company's fundamental stability is further corroborated by a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and an Altman Z-Score of 29.2, indicating strong balance sheet health and consistent earnings quality that typically signals low distress risk within the broader market context.

Valuation metrics suggest significant divergence between current pricing and intrinsic value models; while the stock trades at a premium multiple of 58.9x relative to historical norms and sector peers, Discounted Cash Flow analysis implies a fair value of $12,329. This discrepancy indicates that the market is currently pricing in aggressive future growth assumptions that may not be fully supported by recent revenue expansion alone, despite the impressive year-over-year sales increase of 60.3%. The elevated multiple compresses margin safety unless actual earnings compound at rates that justify such a steep premium over intrinsic estimates derived from cash flow projections.

Given the lack of specific sector data or Fama-French alpha figures in the provided dataset, a precise assessment of style factors like size or value exposure cannot be synthesized. However, the combination of high growth velocity and deep valuation discounts relative to DCF models creates an asymmetric risk-reward profile where downside protection is anchored by strong fundamentals while upside potential hinges on whether future revenue execution can sustain current multiples without requiring further margin expansion.

Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.

DCF Sandbox

Interactive

Sensitivity Matrix

TG ↓ / WACC →8.2%10.2%12.2%
2%$14945$11097$8779
3%$17380$12329$9498
4%$20984$13960$10394

Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs .

Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $12329 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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SMA 50 SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

8/9
Piotroski F-Score
Strong — high operational efficiency and profitability signals
29.2
Altman Z-Score
Safe Zone — above 3.0 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.

Profitability & Value Creation

57.1%
Gross Margin
20.7%
Net Margin
33.4%
ROIC
10.2%
WACC
ROIC − WACC Spread: +23.2%— Positive value creation spread.
+60.3%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+158.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
266.5B
Free Cash Flow
10%
FCF Payout Ratio

✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.

Balance Sheet Health

0.69x
Debt / Equity
1.94x
Current Ratio
43.6x
Interest Coverage
-1.0x
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.79%
FCF Yield
257.1B
EBITDA

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✗ Miss
Est: $77.96
Act: $54.46
-30.1%
Q3
✓ Beat
Est: $94.31
Act: $123.14
+30.6%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $107.21
Act: $109.03
+1.7%
Q1
✓ Beat
Est: $76.73
Act: $108.41
+41.3%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

88.0
Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
22.54
Price/Book
10M
Avg Volume
$29345.00
52W High
$4703.00
52W Low
52W Range Position

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in 6857.T to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

6857.T Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
6857.TEpicenterEWJETF8306.THigh Risk7203.TMed Risk6501.TLow Risk8316.THigh Risk8035.TLow Risk
6857.T Price Drop (%)0

If 6857.T (6857.T) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc (8306.T) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with 6857.T. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 1 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

6857.T Ownership Dynamics

Ticker
6857.T

ETFs with Highest 6857.T Exposure

Float lock-up computed from 0 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

6857.T Capital Efficiency

How efficiently does 6857.T convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.

Free Cash Flow
$266.5B
EBITDA
$257.1B
FCF Conversion
104%
Reinvestment Rate
-4%
104% of EBITDA → Free Cash
0% (cash burn)25% (low)50% (efficient)100% (pure cash)
ROIC
33.4%
ROIC − WACC Spread
23.2%

6857.T converts 104% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 23.2% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.

Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.

Compare 6857.T to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.