AZN.L (AZN.L)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 3.0 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold).
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency and operational leverage of this entity demonstrate robust fundamental quality, anchored by a significant 7.1% spread between return on invested capital (ROIC) and the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). This value-creating trajectory is underpinned by high-margin economics, where an 81.9% gross margin compresses into a net profit margin of 17.4%, driven primarily by strong pricing power rather than asset intensity or financial leverage. The DuPont decomposition reveals that the 21.0% return on equity stems from this superior profitability (margin) and moderate use of debt, supported further by an Altman Z-Score of 3.0 indicating a low probability of distress and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 signaling strong financial health with minimal deterioration in recent periods.
Valuation metrics currently reflect a premium relative to historical norms and sector peers, as the market prices earnings at 28.4x despite revenue expanding by only 8.6% year-over-year. While discounted cash flow models suggest an intrinsic fair value of $206, the current multiple implies that investors are anticipating sustained growth rates exceeding those currently realized or potentially priced in with limited downside protection given the lack of insider trading activity over the last ninety days. The disconnect between the high quality of returns and the elevated entry point suggests the stock is positioned for scenarios where future growth justifies the premium, yet any miss on execution could leave little margin for error against current expectations.
No specific risk factor deltas or Fama-French alpha data were provided to further contextualize the equity's behavior relative to market factors beyond the internal quality scores and valuation gaps noted above.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
InteractiveSensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.6% | 9.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $165 | $114 | $80 |
| 3% | $217 | $137 | $91 |
| 4% | $320 | $172 | $106 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs —.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.6%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $137 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like EWU or DFAI, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell AZN.L shares regardless of AZN.L's individual fundamentals. We estimate $440M of passive capital is structurally linked to AZN.L through 2 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on AZN.L's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 2 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in AZN.L to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If AZN.L (AZN.L) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies HSBC Holdings PLC (HSBA.L) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with AZN.L. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 2 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
AZN.L Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest AZN.L Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 0 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
AZN.L Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does AZN.L convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
AZN.L converts 44% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 56% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 5.7% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Compare AZN.L to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.