AZN.L (AZN.L)

$214.3B
Market Cap
28.4
P/E Ratio
0.23
Beta
1.69%
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 7/9Altman Z 3.0 SafeROIC−WACC +5.7%

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 3.0 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold).

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Algorithmic Teardown

AI-Generated

The capital allocation efficiency and operational leverage of this entity demonstrate robust fundamental quality, anchored by a significant 7.1% spread between return on invested capital (ROIC) and the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). This value-creating trajectory is underpinned by high-margin economics, where an 81.9% gross margin compresses into a net profit margin of 17.4%, driven primarily by strong pricing power rather than asset intensity or financial leverage. The DuPont decomposition reveals that the 21.0% return on equity stems from this superior profitability (margin) and moderate use of debt, supported further by an Altman Z-Score of 3.0 indicating a low probability of distress and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 signaling strong financial health with minimal deterioration in recent periods.

Valuation metrics currently reflect a premium relative to historical norms and sector peers, as the market prices earnings at 28.4x despite revenue expanding by only 8.6% year-over-year. While discounted cash flow models suggest an intrinsic fair value of $206, the current multiple implies that investors are anticipating sustained growth rates exceeding those currently realized or potentially priced in with limited downside protection given the lack of insider trading activity over the last ninety days. The disconnect between the high quality of returns and the elevated entry point suggests the stock is positioned for scenarios where future growth justifies the premium, yet any miss on execution could leave little margin for error against current expectations.

No specific risk factor deltas or Fama-French alpha data were provided to further contextualize the equity's behavior relative to market factors beyond the internal quality scores and valuation gaps noted above.

Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.

DCF Sandbox

Interactive

Sensitivity Matrix

TG ↓ / WACC →6%7.6%9.6%
2%$165$114$80
3%$217$137$91
4%$320$172$106

Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs .

Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.6%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $137 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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SMA 50 SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

7/9
Piotroski F-Score
Strong — high operational efficiency and profitability signals
3.0
Altman Z-Score
Safe Zone — above 3.0 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.

Profitability & Value Creation

81.9%
Gross Margin
17.4%
Net Margin
13.3%
ROIC
7.6%
WACC
ROIC − WACC Spread: +5.7%— Positive value creation spread.
+8.6%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+45.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.7B
Free Cash Flow
57%
FCF Payout Ratio

✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.

DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition

Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.

17.4%
Net Profit Margin
NI ÷ Revenue
×
0.51x
Asset Turnover
Revenue ÷ Assets
×
2.34x
Equity Multiplier
Assets ÷ Equity
=
21.0%
Return on Equity
✅ ROE driven primarily by strong profit margins — a sign of pricing power.

Balance Sheet Health

1.34x
Debt / Equity
0.94x
Current Ratio
8.7x
Interest Coverage
1.0x
Net Debt / EBITDA
3.72%
FCF Yield
19.5B
EBITDA

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✓ Beat
Est: $2.24
Act: $2.49
+11.4%
Q3
✓ Beat
Est: $2.15
Act: $2.17
+0.9%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $2.27
Act: $2.38
+4.9%
Q1
✓ Beat
Est: $2.08
Act: $2.12
+2.0%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

15.9
Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
590.68
Price/Book
3M
Avg Volume
$15732.00
52W High
$9573.50
52W Low
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$440M
Tracked Passive Exposure
2
ETFs Holding AZN.L
2.46%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$18B
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like EWU or DFAI, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell AZN.L shares regardless of AZN.L's individual fundamentals. We estimate $440M of passive capital is structurally linked to AZN.L through 2 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on AZN.L's daily trading dynamics.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 2 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in AZN.L to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

AZN.L Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
AZN.LEpicenterDFAIETFEWUETFHSBA.LHigh RiskSHEL.LMed RiskRR.LUnknownBATS.LMed RiskULVR.LUnknown
AZN.L Price Drop (%)0

If AZN.L (AZN.L) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies HSBC Holdings PLC (HSBA.L) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with AZN.L. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 2 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

AZN.L Ownership Dynamics

Ticker
AZN.L

ETFs with Highest AZN.L Exposure

Float lock-up computed from 0 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

AZN.L Capital Efficiency

How efficiently does AZN.L convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.

Free Cash Flow
$8.7B
EBITDA
$19.5B
FCF Conversion
44%
Reinvestment Rate
56%
44% of EBITDA → Free Cash
0% (cash burn)25% (low)50% (efficient)100% (pure cash)
ROIC
13.3%
ROIC − WACC Spread
5.7%

AZN.L converts 44% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 56% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 5.7% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.

Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.

Compare AZN.L to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.