eToro Group Ltd. (ETOR)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 12.7x earnings — a 34% discount to the sector average of 19.2x — ETOR is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 12.9.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of eToro Group Ltd. demonstrate a robust spread between return on invested capital and the cost of equity, with an ROIC-WACC differential of 5.2% indicating efficient value creation relative to financing costs. This operational efficiency is underpinned by strong solvency metrics; a Beneish M-Score of -3.06 suggests low earnings manipulation risk, while an Altman Z-Score of 12.9 points to negligible bankruptcy probability and high financial stability. However, the DuPont decomposition reveals that profitability remains constrained by thin margins, with net income at just 1.6% despite a gross margin of 5.5%, suggesting revenue growth is currently driven more by volume expansion than pricing power or operational leverage. The Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 reflects solid fundamental health but indicates room for improvement in financial strength or profitability trends compared to the ideal score of 9.
Valuation analysis highlights a significant discount relative to peers and intrinsic value models, as the current P/E ratio of 12.7x trades substantially below both the sector average of 18.9x and the implied fair value derived from discounted cash flow assumptions at $130 per share. This divergence suggests the market may be pricing in conservative growth expectations or lingering macroeconomic headwinds that are not fully reflected in the company's historical revenue trajectory of 9.4% year-over-year. The gap between current multiples and DCF fair value implies potential upside if future cash flows materialize according to model inputs, though this assumes the market can reconcile its lower valuation stance with the underlying capital efficiency demonstrated by the positive ROIC spread.
No specific risk factor deltas, insider transaction data, or Fama-French alpha metrics were provided in the input parameters; consequently, a synthesis of those specific dimensions cannot be performed within the constraints of the available information. The current assessment relies strictly on the interplay between the company's high-quality balance sheet indicators and its compressed multiple relative to sector norms and intrinsic valuation estimates.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
InteractiveSensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8.9% | 10.9% | 12.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $154 | $119 | $97 |
| 3% | $174 | $130 | $104 |
| 4% | $203 | $144 | $112 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs —.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $130 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in eToro Group Ltd. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If eToro Group Ltd. (ETOR) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies SHOPIFY INC - CLASS A (SHOP) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with ETOR. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 1 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ETOR Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest ETOR Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 1 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ETOR Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does eToro Group Ltd. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
eToro Group Ltd. converts 102% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 5.2% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 36,018 | $41.29 | $1.5M |
| 2026-04-22 | 1,541 | $37.36 | $57,571.76 |
| 2026-04-20 | 600 | $37.66 | $22,596 |
| 2026-04-16 | 1,963 | $36.93 | $72,493.59 |
| 2026-04-14 | 25,163 | $33.31 | $838,179.53 |
| 2026-04-09 | 3,000 | $31.04 | $93,120 |
| 2026-04-06 | 32,613 | $29.88 | $974,476.44 |
| 2026-04-02 | 1 | $30.01 | $30.01 |
| 2026-03-23 | 402 | $29.43 | $11,830.86 |
| 2026-03-18 | 18 | $31.14 | $560.52 |
| 2026-03-17 | 17 | $30.55 | $519.35 |
| 2026-03-06 | 1,389 | $32.70 | $45,420.3 |
| 2026-03-04 | 3,148 | $31.49 | $99,130.52 |
| 2026-02-26 | 24,681 | $32.44 | $800,651.64 |
| 2026-02-24 | 8,635 | $30.54 | $263,712.9 |
| 2026-02-23 | 18,113 | $31.18 | $564,763.34 |
| 2026-02-20 | 168,061 | $31.00 | $5.2M |
| 2026-02-12 | 6,275 | $26.94 | $169,048.5 |
| 2026-02-06 | 36,490 | $24.76 | $903,492.4 |
| 2026-02-05 | 12,948 | $26.54 | $343,639.92 |
| 2026-02-04 | 23,165 | $27.05 | $626,613.25 |
| 2026-02-02 | 17,766 | $29.40 | $522,320.4 |
| 2026-01-30 | 50,416 | $30.22 | $1.5M |
| 2026-01-29 | 325 | $31.40 | $10,205 |
| 2026-01-21 | 18,254 | $30.81 | $562,405.74 |
| 2026-01-13 | 100 | $31.96 | $3,196 |
| 2026-01-12 | 10,657 | $31.62 | $336,974.34 |
| 2026-01-08 | 715 | $33.28 | $23,795.2 |
| 2025-12-31 | 386 | $35.54 | $13,718.44 |
| 2025-12-30 | 25 | $35.67 | $891.75 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare ETOR to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.