HESM (HESM)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicStrong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 2.4.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency of HESM demonstrates robust fundamental quality, evidenced by a ROIC-WACC spread of +12.2%, indicating that the firm generates returns significantly above its cost of capital. This high-quality earnings profile is further corroborated by a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and a Beneish M-Score of -3.01, which collectively suggest strong financial health with minimal likelihood of earnings manipulation. The DuPont components reveal that the exceptional Net Margin of 21.8% and Gross Margin of 86.8% are primary drivers of value creation rather than leverage or asset turnover, while an Altman Z-Score of 2.4 places the entity in a zone requiring monitoring for potential distress despite its current profitability.
Valuation metrics present a divergence between historical multiples and intrinsic worth estimates derived from discounted cash flow analysis. The stock currently trades at a P/E ratio of 13.9x, which appears compressed relative to the company's superior margin expansion and revenue growth trajectory of 8.4% YoY. However, without specific sector averages or historical percentile data provided in the input, it is impossible to definitively characterize this multiple as cheap or expensive; instead, the DCF model implies a fair value of $132, suggesting that market pricing may differ from intrinsic valuations based on projected cash flows and growth assumptions inherent in the model.
The risk-reward profile remains nuanced given the absence of sector-specific volatility data, insider trading activity, or Fama-French alpha metrics required to fully contextualize the investment thesis. While the high gross margins and positive Piotroski score offer a defensive moat against earnings degradation, the Altman Z-Score below 3.0 warrants vigilance regarding liquidity constraints or balance sheet fragility under stress scenarios. Investors must weigh the strong operational fundamentals and implied upside from the DCF model against the lack of comparative sector valuation context to determine if current pricing adequately compensates for these specific risk factors.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
InteractiveSensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7% | 9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $139 | $105 | $66 |
| 3% | $188 | $132 | $79 |
| 4% | $286 | $179 | $96 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs —.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $132 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in HESM to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If HESM (HESM) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with HESM. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 1 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
HESM Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest HESM Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 1 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
HESM Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does HESM convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
HESM converts 59% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 12.2% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 112 | $39.02 | $4,370.24 |
| 2026-05-07 | 1,500 | $38.22 | $57,330 |
| 2026-05-05 | 167,671 | $39.52 | $6.6M |
| 2026-05-01 | 1 | $39.10 | $39.1 |
| 2026-04-20 | 12,619 | $37.87 | $477,881.53 |
| 2026-04-17 | 131,919 | $37.78 | $5.0M |
| 2026-03-26 | 817 | $39.75 | $32,475.75 |
| 2026-03-17 | 27,530 | $39.34 | $1.1M |
| 2026-02-23 | 1,699 | $37.89 | $64,375.11 |
| 2026-02-20 | 23,813 | $37.52 | $893,463.76 |
| 2026-02-05 | 1,459 | $36.07 | $52,626.13 |
| 2026-01-29 | 450 | $35.99 | $16,195.5 |
| 2026-01-14 | 3 | $34.73 | $104.19 |
| 2026-01-12 | 32 | $33.96 | $1,086.72 |
| 2026-01-05 | 82,038 | $34.65 | $2.8M |
| 2025-12-30 | 46 | $34.27 | $1,576.42 |
| 2025-11-25 | 4,495 | $32.11 | $144,334.45 |
| 2025-11-24 | 4,220 | $32.74 | $138,162.8 |
| 2025-11-21 | 3,976 | $32.60 | $129,617.6 |
| 2025-11-20 | 2,432 | $32.04 | $77,921.28 |
| 2025-11-06 | 28 | $33.81 | $946.68 |
| 2025-11-05 | 2,379 | $33.91 | $80,671.89 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare HESM to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.