JP3494600004 (JP3494600004)

$1.85T
Market Cap
31.3
P/E Ratio
1.49
Beta
1.42%
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 8/9Altman Z 7.2 SafeROIC−WACC +11.6%

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 8/9, Altman Z 7.2 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold).

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Algorithmic Teardown

AI-Generated

The capital allocation efficiency demonstrated by an ROIC of 25.5% against a WACC of 13.9% yields a substantial spread of +11.6%, indicating robust value creation potential that significantly outpaces the cost of capital. This high return is primarily driven by operational leverage rather than financial engineering, as evidenced by strong gross margins at 37.6% and net margins expanding to 15.9%. The DuPont decomposition suggests profitability and margin expansion are key contributors over excessive leverage, a view reinforced by an Altman Z-Score of 7.2 which signals low bankruptcy risk. Furthermore, the Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 underscores exceptional fundamental quality with nine out of ten positive indicators likely present, suggesting a company in a strong financial position supported by revenue growth accelerating at 23.8% year-over-year.

Valuation metrics currently reflect aggressive market pricing relative to historical norms and sector peers, as indicated by the current P/E multiple of 31.3x. This premium implies that investors are anticipating sustained high-growth trajectories consistent with the observed 23.8% revenue expansion. However, a DCF analysis establishes a fair value of $2417, which serves as a critical benchmark against current market prices to determine if the stock is trading at a discount or premium based on intrinsic worth calculations incorporating implied growth assumptions. The divergence between the high multiple and specific valuation models requires careful assessment of whether future cash flow projections are sufficiently durable to justify the existing price level without relying on perpetual acceleration that may not be sustainable indefinitely.

Risk-adjusted return profiles appear favorable given the combination of superior profitability metrics and low distress risk, yet the elevated P/E leaves little margin for error if growth rates decelerate from their current 23.8% pace. The absence of specific Fama-French alpha data or insider transaction records limits a comprehensive assessment of momentum shifts or management confidence signals beyond the strong fundamental scores provided. Ultimately, the investment thesis rests on maintaining this high ROIC-WACC spread and revenue velocity; any material deterioration in margins or growth rate could compress valuations rapidly given the current premium multiple structure.

Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.

DCF Sandbox

Interactive

Sensitivity Matrix

TG ↓ / WACC →11.9%13.9%15.9%
2%$2414$2138$1941
3%$2540$2218$1994
4%$2697$2313$2057

Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs .

Pre-computed DCF: WACC=13.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $2218 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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SMA 50 SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

8/9
Piotroski F-Score
Strong — high operational efficiency and profitability signals
7.2
Altman Z-Score
Safe Zone — above 3.0 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.

Profitability & Value Creation

37.6%
Gross Margin
15.9%
Net Margin
25.5%
ROIC
13.9%
WACC
ROIC − WACC Spread: +11.6%— Positive value creation spread.
+23.8%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+40.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
45.7B
Free Cash Flow
55%
FCF Payout Ratio

✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.

Balance Sheet Health

0.60x
Debt / Equity
2.00x
Current Ratio
1030.7x
Interest Coverage
-0.9x
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.67%
FCF Yield
152.0B
EBITDA

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✓ Beat
Est: $122.93
Act: $154.42
+25.6%
Q3
✗ Miss
Est: $122.01
Act: $88.26
-27.7%
Q2
✗ Miss
Est: $139.61
Act: $80.25
-42.5%
Q1
✗ Miss
Est: $127.65
Act: $122.12
-4.3%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

22.4
Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
4.17
Price/Book
2M
Avg Volume
$23870.00
52W High
$7825.00
52W Low
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$145M
Tracked Passive Exposure
6
ETFs Holding JP3494600004
0.04%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$385B
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like EFA or SCHF, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell JP3494600004 shares regardless of JP3494600004's individual fundamentals. We estimate $145M of passive capital is structurally linked to JP3494600004 through 6 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on JP3494600004's daily trading dynamics.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 6 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in JP3494600004 to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

JP3494600004 Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
JP3494600004EpicenterIEFAETFEFAETFSCHFETFNL0010273215Low RiskCH0012032048Low RiskNVDALow RiskCH0012005267Low RiskAAPLLow Risk
JP3494600004 Price Drop (%)0

If JP3494600004 (JP3494600004) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ASML Holding N.V. (NL0010273215) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with JP3494600004. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 6 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

JP3494600004 Ownership Dynamics

Ticker
JP3494600004

Float lock-up computed from 6 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

JP3494600004 Capital Efficiency

How efficiently does JP3494600004 convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.

Free Cash Flow
$45.7B
EBITDA
$152.0B
FCF Conversion
30%
Reinvestment Rate
70%
30% of EBITDA → Free Cash
0% (cash burn)25% (low)50% (efficient)100% (pure cash)
ROIC
25.5%
ROIC − WACC Spread
11.6%

JP3494600004 converts 30% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 70% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 11.6% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.

Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.

Compare JP3494600004 to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.