OGC (OGC)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 7.2 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold).
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency is exceptionally robust, evidenced by a 26.2% ROIC that significantly outpaces typical cost of equity benchmarks, suggesting the firm generates substantial value before financing costs are considered. This profitability is driven primarily by operational leverage rather than financial engineering or margin compression; the DuPont decomposition reveals an unusually high net margin of 33.2% paired with a gross margin of 46.4%, indicating powerful pricing power and low cost structures, while revenue growth accelerates at 46.3% year-over-year. Fundamental quality metrics further corroborate this strength: a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 signals strong balance sheet health and earnings momentum, an Altman Z-Score of 7.2 places the company well into safe territory regarding insolvency risk, and a Beneish M-Score of -2.91 strongly suggests that reported financials are free from manipulation.
Valuation metrics present a potential divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic value models. The stock trades at a 12.4x P/E multiple, which appears compressed relative to its high-growth trajectory and superior margin profile, yet it remains elevated when contextualized against the implied growth assumptions baked into the $87 DCF fair value target. If the market's current pricing does not fully reflect the sustainability of the 33% net margins or the 46% revenue expansion rate, the spread between the prevailing multiple and the calculated fair value may narrow as consensus expectations align with actual performance data.
No specific risk factor deltas, insider trading activity, or Fama-French alpha statistics were provided to further refine the risk-reward assessment in this instance. Consequently, while the fundamental economics display high quality and growth acceleration, the absence of sector-relative volatility data or management signal limits a complete picture of downside protection versus upside potential at current levels.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
InteractiveSensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $106 | $78 | $61 |
| 3% | $124 | $87 | $67 |
| 4% | $151 | $99 | $73 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs —.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $87 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
Balance Sheet Health
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VSS or SPDW, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell OGC shares regardless of OGC's individual fundamentals. We estimate $32M of passive capital is structurally linked to OGC through 2 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on OGC's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 2 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in OGC to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If OGC (OGC) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies SAMSUNG ELECTR GDR REG S (SMSN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with OGC. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 2 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
OGC Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest OGC Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 2 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
OGC Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does OGC convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
OGC converts 46% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 54% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 12,534 | $30.34 | $380,281.56 |
| 2026-05-05 | 116 | $29.89 | $3,467.24 |
| 2026-04-30 | 7,667 | $30.00 | $230,010 |
| 2026-04-24 | 733 | $32.52 | $23,837.16 |
| 2026-04-22 | 432 | $33.27 | $14,372.64 |
| 2026-04-21 | 11,797 | $34.11 | $402,395.67 |
| 2026-04-20 | 7,224 | $34.42 | $248,650.08 |
| 2026-04-15 | 25,352 | $34.32 | $870,080.64 |
| 2026-04-14 | 1,226 | $34.13 | $41,843.38 |
| 2026-04-10 | 13,849 | $33.97 | $470,450.53 |
| 2026-04-09 | 13,293 | $33.30 | $442,656.9 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare OGC to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.