OGC (OGC)

$7.6B
Market Cap
12.4
P/E Ratio
1.58
Beta
0.54%
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 7/9Altman Z 7.2 SafeBeneish M -2.91 Clean

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 7.2 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold).

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Algorithmic Teardown

AI-Generated

The capital allocation efficiency is exceptionally robust, evidenced by a 26.2% ROIC that significantly outpaces typical cost of equity benchmarks, suggesting the firm generates substantial value before financing costs are considered. This profitability is driven primarily by operational leverage rather than financial engineering or margin compression; the DuPont decomposition reveals an unusually high net margin of 33.2% paired with a gross margin of 46.4%, indicating powerful pricing power and low cost structures, while revenue growth accelerates at 46.3% year-over-year. Fundamental quality metrics further corroborate this strength: a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 signals strong balance sheet health and earnings momentum, an Altman Z-Score of 7.2 places the company well into safe territory regarding insolvency risk, and a Beneish M-Score of -2.91 strongly suggests that reported financials are free from manipulation.

Valuation metrics present a potential divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic value models. The stock trades at a 12.4x P/E multiple, which appears compressed relative to its high-growth trajectory and superior margin profile, yet it remains elevated when contextualized against the implied growth assumptions baked into the $87 DCF fair value target. If the market's current pricing does not fully reflect the sustainability of the 33% net margins or the 46% revenue expansion rate, the spread between the prevailing multiple and the calculated fair value may narrow as consensus expectations align with actual performance data.

No specific risk factor deltas, insider trading activity, or Fama-French alpha statistics were provided to further refine the risk-reward assessment in this instance. Consequently, while the fundamental economics display high quality and growth acceleration, the absence of sector-relative volatility data or management signal limits a complete picture of downside protection versus upside potential at current levels.

Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.

DCF Sandbox

Interactive

Sensitivity Matrix

TG ↓ / WACC →8%10%12%
2%$106$78$61
3%$124$87$67
4%$151$99$73

Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs .

Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $87 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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SMA 50 SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

7/9
Piotroski F-Score
Strong — high operational efficiency and profitability signals
7.2
Altman Z-Score
Safe Zone — above 3.0 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.
-2.91
Beneish M-Score
Below threshold — no statistical earnings quality concern per Beneish model. Threshold: <-2.22 = below threshold.

Profitability & Value Creation

46.4%
Gross Margin
33.2%
Net Margin
26.3%
ROIC
+46.3%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+235.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
541.4M
Free Cash Flow
5%
FCF Payout Ratio

✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.

Balance Sheet Health

0.37x
Debt / Equity
1.45x
Current Ratio
71.4x
Interest Coverage
7.65%
FCF Yield
1.2B
EBITDA

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
Price/Book
55354
Avg Volume
$34.41
52W High
$1.53
52W Low
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$32M
Tracked Passive Exposure
2
ETFs Holding OGC
0.06%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$49B
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like VSS or SPDW, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell OGC shares regardless of OGC's individual fundamentals. We estimate $32M of passive capital is structurally linked to OGC through 2 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on OGC's daily trading dynamics.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 2 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in OGC to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

OGC Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
OGCEpicenterSPDWETFVSSETFSMSNUnknownA000660UnknownASMLLow RiskHSBAUnknownROPMed Risk
OGC Price Drop (%)0

If OGC (OGC) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies SAMSUNG ELECTR GDR REG S (SMSN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with OGC. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 2 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

OGC Ownership Dynamics

Ticker
OGC

ETFs with Highest OGC Exposure

Float lock-up computed from 2 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

OGC Capital Efficiency

How efficiently does OGC convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.

Free Cash Flow
$541M
EBITDA
$1.2B
FCF Conversion
46%
Reinvestment Rate
54%
46% of EBITDA → Free Cash
0% (cash burn)25% (low)50% (efficient)100% (pure cash)

OGC converts 46% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 54% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion.

Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-05-0812,534$30.34$380,281.56
2026-05-05116$29.89$3,467.24
2026-04-307,667$30.00$230,010
2026-04-24733$32.52$23,837.16
2026-04-22432$33.27$14,372.64
2026-04-2111,797$34.11$402,395.67
2026-04-207,224$34.42$248,650.08
2026-04-1525,352$34.32$870,080.64
2026-04-141,226$34.13$41,843.38
2026-04-1013,849$33.97$470,450.53
2026-04-0913,293$33.30$442,656.9

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

Compare OGC to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.