PETR3.SA (PETR3.SA)

$718.8B
Market Cap
6.8
P/E Ratio
0.16
Beta
7.20%
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 7/9Altman Z 3.7 SafeBeneish M -2.59 CleanROIC−WACC +5.2%

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 3.7 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold).

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Algorithmic Teardown

AI-Generated

The capital allocation efficiency demonstrates robust value creation, evidenced by a ROIC of 13.1% that comfortably exceeds the WACC of 7.9%, generating a +5.2% spread indicative of strong economic moats and superior reinvestment potential. This profitability is underpinned by exceptional margin quality, with net margins at 22.0% and gross margins holding steady at 47.6%, suggesting pricing power or significant cost advantages rather than volume-driven growth; however, revenue contraction of -2.4% YoY indicates the current ROE expansion relies heavily on leverage or asset turnover improvements rather than top-line scaling. Fundamental integrity metrics reinforce this stability, as a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 signals strong financial health, while an Altman Z-Score of 3.7 places the entity firmly in the safe zone against bankruptcy risk and a Beneish M-Score of -2.59 effectively rules out earnings manipulation concerns.

Valuation appears deeply discounted relative to its intrinsic worth, trading at a current P/E multiple of 6.8x which implies market skepticism regarding future growth trajectories despite the company's high-margin profile. The disconnect between these low multiples and a DCF-derived fair value of $17 suggests the market is pricing in persistent revenue headwinds or sector-specific tail risks that may not be fully reflected in current cash flow assumptions, potentially leaving significant upside if macro conditions stabilize to support the observed margin durability.

No specific risk factor deltas, insider transaction data, or Fama-French alpha metrics were provided for this analysis; consequently, a detailed assessment of style-based anomalies or recent management sentiment cannot be synthesized from the available dataset.

Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.

DCF Sandbox

Interactive

Sensitivity Matrix

TG ↓ / WACC →6%7.9%9.9%
2%$22$15$11
3%$29$17$12
4%$42$21$14

Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs .

Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $17 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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SMA 50 SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

7/9
Piotroski F-Score
Strong — high operational efficiency and profitability signals
3.7
Altman Z-Score
Safe Zone — above 3.0 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.
-2.59
Beneish M-Score
Below threshold — no statistical earnings quality concern per Beneish model. Threshold: <-2.22 = below threshold.

Profitability & Value Creation

47.6%
Gross Margin
22.0%
Net Margin
13.1%
ROIC
7.9%
WACC
ROIC − WACC Spread: +5.2%— Positive value creation spread.
-2.4%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+160.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.5B
Free Cash Flow
49%
FCF Payout Ratio

✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.

Balance Sheet Health

1.93x
Debt / Equity
0.71x
Current Ratio
7.5x
Interest Coverage
0.4x
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.24%
FCF Yield
46.0B
EBITDA

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✓ Beat
Est: $2.64
Act: $2.73
+3.6%
Q3
✓ Beat
Est: $1.72
Act: $2.02
+17.8%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $1.82
Act: $2.52
+38.6%
Q1
✗ Miss
Est: $1.57
Act: $1.16
-26.1%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

6.5
Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
1.73
Price/Book
14M
Avg Volume
$56.14
52W High
$30.84
52W Low
52W Range Position

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in PETR3.SA to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

PETR3.SA Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
PETR3.SAEpicenterEWZETFVALE3.SALow RiskNUHigh RiskITUB4UnknownPETR4UnknownB3SA3.SAMed Risk
PETR3.SA Price Drop (%)0

If PETR3.SA (PETR3.SA) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Vale SA (VALE3.SA) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with PETR3.SA. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 1 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

PETR3.SA Ownership Dynamics

Ticker
PETR3.SA

ETFs with Highest PETR3.SA Exposure

Float lock-up computed from 0 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

PETR3.SA Capital Efficiency

How efficiently does PETR3.SA convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.

Free Cash Flow
$16.5B
EBITDA
$46.0B
FCF Conversion
36%
Reinvestment Rate
64%
36% of EBITDA → Free Cash
0% (cash burn)25% (low)50% (efficient)100% (pure cash)
ROIC
13.1%
ROIC − WACC Spread
5.2%

PETR3.SA converts 36% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 64% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 5.2% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.

Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.

Compare PETR3.SA to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.