SAP.DE (SAP.DE)

$169.7B
Market Cap
23.8
P/E Ratio
0.69
Beta
1.75%
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 8/9Altman Z 6.0 SafeBeneish M -2.60 CleanROIC−WACC +7.0%

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 8/9, Altman Z 6.0 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold).

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Algorithmic Teardown

AI-Generated

The capital allocation efficiency of the enterprise demonstrates robust fundamental quality, evidenced by a Return on Invested Capital significantly exceeding its weighted average cost of capital by 7.0 percentage points. This spread indicates value creation that outpaces the hurdle rate required for shareholders, supported by a DuPont-style profile where high gross margins at 72.9% and net margins near 19.5% drive profitability without relying on excessive leverage or turnover acceleration. Creditworthiness and earnings integrity are further reinforced by an Altman Z-Score of 6.0, signaling low bankruptcy risk, while a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 suggests strong financial health with minimal manipulation concerns given the negative Beneish M-Score of -2.60.

Valuation metrics present a divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic value estimates derived from discounted cash flow modeling. The stock trades at a forward P/E multiple of 23.8x, which requires contextualization against historical averages and sector peers to determine if the premium is justified by growth expectations embedded in the DCF fair value target of $288. If current market prices fall substantially below this implied valuation floor, it may suggest the market is underpricing future cash flows relative to the company's demonstrated margin expansion capabilities; conversely, a price near or above this level implies that consensus expectations have already priced in significant growth durability.

Risk assessment remains moderate given the absence of specific risk factor deltas, insider trading anomalies, or Fama-French alpha data within the provided dataset. The combination of high profitability margins and strong credit metrics creates a defensive cushion against economic downturns, yet the 7.7% revenue growth rate indicates that top-line expansion is proceeding at a steady but not explosive pace. Investors must weigh whether the current multiple adequately compensates for this measured growth trajectory or if there remains upside potential as execution validates the high-margin business model over time.

Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.

DCF Sandbox

Interactive

Sensitivity Matrix

TG ↓ / WACC →7%9%11%
2%$361$253$193
3%$440$288$212
4%$571$337$236

Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs .

Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $288 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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SMA 50 SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

8/9
Piotroski F-Score
Strong — high operational efficiency and profitability signals
6.0
Altman Z-Score
Safe Zone — above 3.0 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.
-2.60
Beneish M-Score
Below threshold — no statistical earnings quality concern per Beneish model. Threshold: <-2.22 = below threshold.

Profitability & Value Creation

72.9%
Gross Margin
19.5%
Net Margin
16.1%
ROIC
9.0%
WACC
ROIC − WACC Spread: +7.0%— Positive value creation spread.
+7.7%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+129.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.4B
Free Cash Flow
33%
FCF Payout Ratio

✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.

Balance Sheet Health

0.56x
Debt / Equity
1.16x
Current Ratio
21.9x
Interest Coverage
-0.3x
Net Debt / EBITDA
5.08%
FCF Yield
12.1B
EBITDA

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✓ Beat
Est: $1.29
Act: $1.44
+11.9%
Q3
✓ Beat
Est: $1.45
Act: $1.50
+3.8%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $1.50
Act: $1.59
+5.7%
Q1
✓ Beat
Est: $1.51
Act: $1.62
+7.6%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

17.1
Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
3.81
Price/Book
3M
Avg Volume
$273.55
52W High
$142.10
52W Low
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$341M
Tracked Passive Exposure
2
ETFs Holding SAP.DE
3.26%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$10B
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like EWG or EZU, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell SAP.DE shares regardless of SAP.DE's individual fundamentals. We estimate $341M of passive capital is structurally linked to SAP.DE through 2 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on SAP.DE's daily trading dynamics.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 2 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in SAP.DE to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

SAP.DE Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
SAP.DEEpicenterEZUETFEWGETFSIE.DEMed RiskALV.DEHigh RiskENR.DEMed RiskASML.ASLow RiskDTE.DEHigh Risk
SAP.DE Price Drop (%)0

If SAP.DE (SAP.DE) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Siemens AG (SIE.DE) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with SAP.DE. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 2 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

SAP.DE Ownership Dynamics

Ticker
SAP.DE

ETFs with Highest SAP.DE Exposure

Float lock-up computed from 0 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

SAP.DE Capital Efficiency

How efficiently does SAP.DE convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.

Free Cash Flow
$8.4B
EBITDA
$12.1B
FCF Conversion
70%
Reinvestment Rate
30%
70% of EBITDA → Free Cash
0% (cash burn)25% (low)50% (efficient)100% (pure cash)
ROIC
16.1%
ROIC − WACC Spread
7.0%

SAP.DE converts 70% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 7.0% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.

Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.

Compare SAP.DE to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.