SD (SD)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicStrong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 8/9) with Altman Z of 2.5.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe company exhibits robust fundamental quality characterized by a high Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a strongly negative Beneish M-Score of -2.68, signaling low earnings manipulation risk alongside aggressive revenue expansion at 24.8% year-over-year. Despite these growth metrics, the capital efficiency profile is constrained with an ROIC of only 8.9%, which fails to generate excess returns relative to a typical cost of equity; this suggests that high net and gross margins (44.9% and 43.1%) are being eroded by either low asset turnover or elevated financial leverage, as the DuPont components do not currently support superior capital allocation. The Altman Z-Score of 2.5 places the firm in a gray zone regarding bankruptcy risk, indicating that while profitability is strong, liquidity or asset structure may require monitoring to sustain long-term solvency given the rapid scaling pace.
Valuation metrics present a significant divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models. Trading at an 8.9x P/E multiple, the stock appears materially discounted relative to its historical trajectory and sector peers who typically command higher multiples for firms with double-digit revenue growth rates. However, this discount persists despite a DCF model assigning a fair value of $15, implying that current market prices are well below estimated intrinsic worth based on projected cash flows. The data suggests the market is pricing in heightened uncertainty regarding future margin sustainability or capital intensity requirements rather than reflecting the immediate earnings power currently displayed by the balance sheet and income statement metrics.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
InteractiveSensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $17 | $13 | $11 |
| 3% | $19 | $15 | $12 |
| 4% | $22 | $16 | $13 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs —.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $15 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XOP or VFVA, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell SD shares regardless of SD's individual fundamentals. We estimate $17M of passive capital is structurally linked to SD through 3 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on SD's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 3 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in SD to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If SD (SD) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with SD. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 3 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
SD Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest SD Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 3 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
SD Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does SD convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
SD converts 38% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 62% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | 121 | $14.79 | $1,789.59 |
| 2026-04-10 | 71 | $15.38 | $1,091.98 |
| 2026-04-06 | 121 | $15.45 | $1,869.45 |
| 2026-04-02 | 18 | $15.16 | $272.88 |
| 2026-03-24 | 290 | $16.27 | $4,718.3 |
| 2026-03-20 | 106,519 | $16.98 | $1.8M |
| 2026-03-17 | 39 | $16.48 | $642.72 |
| 2026-03-05 | 40 | $18.08 | $723.2 |
| 2026-03-03 | 1,129 | $17.59 | $19,859.11 |
| 2026-02-26 | 186 | $16.79 | $3,122.94 |
| 2026-02-20 | 842 | $17.56 | $14,785.52 |
| 2026-02-04 | 675 | $16.04 | $10,827 |
| 2026-02-03 | 81 | $15.75 | $1,275.75 |
| 2026-02-02 | 417 | $15.85 | $6,609.45 |
| 2026-01-21 | 334 | $14.81 | $4,946.54 |
| 2025-12-22 | 64,222 | $14.20 | $911,952.4 |
| 2025-11-14 | 597 | $14.05 | $8,387.85 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare SD to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.