Aegon N.V. PERP CAP SECS (AED)

$52.2B
Market Cap
19.3
P/E Ratio
Beta
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 4/9Beneish M -1.62 Flag (> −2.22)

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9. Beneish M-Score of -1.62 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Algorithmic Teardown

AI-Generated

The capital allocation efficiency for Aegon N.V. is exceptionally robust, evidenced by a 30.9% ROIC that significantly outpaces typical cost of equity benchmarks in the financial services sector. This high return on invested capital suggests strong operational leverage and asset utilization, yet this metric must be contextualized against declining top-line momentum, as revenue contracted 2.7% year-over-year while net margins compressed to just 4.7%. The DuPont decomposition implies that earnings power is being sustained not through margin expansion or accelerated turnover, but likely via high financial leverage inherent in insurance intermediaries; however, this structural reliance is tempered by a weak Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 and a Beneish M-Score of -1.62, which collectively signal deteriorating fundamental quality and potential earnings manipulation risks that contradict the pristine ROIC figure.

Valuation metrics present a complex picture where the current multiple of 19.3x P/E appears detached from the company's negative revenue trajectory and modest profitability profile. While this premium valuation might reflect market pricing for future recovery or specific franchise value, it stands in stark contrast to the underlying fundamentals showing contraction rather than growth. Without explicit historical averages or sector benchmarks provided, the 19.3x multiple cannot be definitively characterized as cheap or expensive relative peers, but its persistence despite shrinking revenues suggests the market is either discounting near-term headwinds heavily or anticipating a significant turnaround not yet reflected in current earnings per share.

The divergence between superior ROIC and declining revenue growth creates an asymmetric risk profile where downside protection relies on balance sheet strength while upside potential hinges entirely on margin re-expansion. The low Piotroski score introduces execution risk, suggesting that the high returns may be fragile or one-off rather than indicative of a sustainable competitive moat. Investors must weigh whether the 30.9% ROIC represents a temporary anomaly driven by leverage cycles or a structural advantage capable of sustaining profitability through the current revenue downturn.

Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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SMA 50 SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

4/9
Piotroski F-Score
Average — mixed operational signals
-1.62
Beneish M-Score
Above threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review per Beneish model. Threshold: <-2.22 = below threshold.

Profitability & Value Creation

15.7%
Gross Margin
4.7%
Net Margin
30.9%
ROIC
-2.7%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-18.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.8M
Free Cash Flow

Balance Sheet Health

15.91x
Debt / Equity
0.77x
Current Ratio
2.6x
Interest Coverage
1.8x
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.7M
EBITDA

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
1.86
Price/Book
10400
Avg Volume
$25.57
52W High
$24.99
52W Low
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$74M
Tracked Passive Exposure
4
ETFs Holding AED
0.08%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$90B
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like VNQI or VSS, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell AED shares regardless of Aegon N.V. PERP CAP SECS's individual fundamentals. We estimate $74M of passive capital is structurally linked to AED through 4 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on AED's daily trading dynamics.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 4 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in Aegon N.V. PERP CAP SECS to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

AED Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
AEDEpicenterVGKETFSPDWETFVSSETFGMGUnknownASMLLow Risk8802UnknownSMSNUnknown8801Unknown
AED Price Drop (%)0

If Aegon N.V. PERP CAP SECS (AED) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Goodman Group (GMG) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with AED. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 4 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

AED Ownership Dynamics

Ticker
AED

Float lock-up computed from 4 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

AED Capital Efficiency

How efficiently does Aegon N.V. PERP CAP SECS convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.

Free Cash Flow
$-1,804,684
EBITDA
$3M
FCF Conversion
-68%
Reinvestment Rate
168%
-68% of EBITDA → Free Cash
0% (cash burn)25% (low)50% (efficient)100% (pure cash)

Aegon N.V. PERP CAP SECS converts -68% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, negative FCF conversion — the company is consuming cash faster than it generates EBITDA, which is unsustainable long-term. The 168% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion.

Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.

Compare AED to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.