ES0144580Y14 (ES0144580Y14)

$129.8B
Market Cap
22.9
P/E Ratio
0.65
Beta
3.41%
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 7/9Altman Z 1.5 DistressROIC−WACC -1.6%

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 1.5.

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Algorithmic Teardown

AI-Generated

The capital allocation efficiency presents a notable constraint, with the return on invested capital of 6.1% falling below the weighted average cost of capital at 7.7%, resulting in a negative spread of -1.6%. Despite this drag on value creation, profitability metrics remain robust, evidenced by net margins of 14.3% and gross margins expanding to 54.6%. The DuPont decomposition suggests that while leverage is not the primary driver given the sub-par ROIC relative to cost of capital, high margin expansion supports earnings quality. Fundamental stability indicators are mixed; a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 signals strong financial health and momentum, yet an Altman Z-Score of 1.5 places the entity in the "grey zone," indicating elevated distress risk that warrants scrutiny despite the otherwise solid scorecard.

Valuation metrics imply significant compression relative to historical norms or sector peers if such comparisons were available within the provided dataset, as the current price-to-earnings ratio stands at 22.9x. More critically, a discounted cash flow analysis suggests a fair value of $3, which implies that market pricing currently exceeds intrinsic worth by a substantial margin unless future growth assumptions diverge sharply from base case projections. The revenue trajectory shows modest year-over-year expansion of only 2.5%, suggesting the market may be pricing in aggressive acceleration to justify the multiple, or alternatively, that the high valuation reflects intangible assets not fully captured in current earnings flows.

The divergence between strong profitability ratios and negative capital returns creates a complex risk-reward profile where operational leverage exists but efficiency is eroded by financing costs. While the Piotroski score indicates resilience against bankruptcy risks typically associated with low Z-scores, the Altman metric serves as a cautionary flag regarding liquidity or asset structure vulnerabilities. Investors must weigh whether the premium valuation accounts for potential margin durability or if it fails to adequately discount the capital destruction inherent in generating returns below the cost of funds.

Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.

DCF Sandbox

Interactive

Sensitivity Matrix

TG ↓ / WACC →6%7.7%9.7%
2%$5$2$0
3%$8$3$0
4%$13$5$1

Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs .

Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.7%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $3 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

Loading chart...
SMA 50 SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

7/9
Piotroski F-Score
Strong — high operational efficiency and profitability signals
1.5
Altman Z-Score
Distress Zone — below 1.8 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.

Profitability & Value Creation

54.6%
Gross Margin
14.3%
Net Margin
6.1%
ROIC
7.7%
WACC
ROIC − WACC Spread: -1.6%— Negative spread.
+2.5%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+12.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.3B
Free Cash Flow
38%
FCF Payout Ratio

✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.

Balance Sheet Health

1.53x
Debt / Equity
0.87x
Current Ratio
4.7x
Interest Coverage
2.3x
Net Debt / EBITDA
1.97%
FCF Yield
16.8B
EBITDA

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✓ Beat
Est: $0.27
Act: $0.30
+11.9%
Q3
✓ Beat
Est: $0.23
Act: $0.23
+1.3%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $0.22
Act: $0.24
+8.6%
Q1
✓ Beat
Est: $0.14
Act: $0.15
+8.1%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

Loading drawdown chart...

Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

Loading beta chart...
Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

18.1
Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
2.53
Price/Book
11M
Avg Volume
$20.38
52W High
$14.04
52W Low
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$2.0B
Tracked Passive Exposure
6
ETFs Holding ES0144580Y14
0.52%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$385B
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like EFA or IEFA, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ES0144580Y14 shares regardless of ES0144580Y14's individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.0B of passive capital is structurally linked to ES0144580Y14 through 6 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 6 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in ES0144580Y14 to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

ES0144580Y14 Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
ES0144580Y14EpicenterIEFAETFEFAETFSCHFETFNL0010273215Low RiskCH0012032048Low RiskNVDALow RiskCH0012005267Low RiskAAPLLow Risk
ES0144580Y14 Price Drop (%)0

If ES0144580Y14 (ES0144580Y14) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ASML Holding N.V. (NL0010273215) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with ES0144580Y14. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 6 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

ES0144580Y14 Ownership Dynamics

Ticker
ES0144580Y14

Float lock-up computed from 6 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

ES0144580Y14 Capital Efficiency

How efficiently does ES0144580Y14 convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.

Free Cash Flow
$3.3B
EBITDA
$16.8B
FCF Conversion
20%
Reinvestment Rate
80%
20% of EBITDA → Free Cash
0% (cash burn)25% (low)50% (efficient)100% (pure cash)
ROIC
6.1%
ROIC − WACC Spread
-1.6%

ES0144580Y14 converts 20% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a low conversion rate suggesting heavy reinvestment. This may indicate a growth phase (building capacity) or structural capital intensity. The 80% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-1.6%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.

Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.

Compare ES0144580Y14 to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.