Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 27.1x earnings — a 58% discount to the sector average of 65.2x — TMO is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 3.5. DCF fair value of $110 implies 79% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThermo Fisher Scientific Inc. presents a fundamental profile characterized by high-quality earnings generation but constrained capital efficiency, as evidenced by an ROIC of 7.2% falling below the 9.7% WACC, resulting in a negative value creation spread of -2.4%. Despite this capital allocation drag, equity returns are supported by strong operating leverage and moderate financial leverage; specifically, a net margin of 15.0% combined with an asset turnover ratio of 0.40x drives the ROE to 12.5%, albeit amplified by an equity multiplier of 2.06x. The company's balance sheet strength is reinforced by an Altman Z-Score of 3.5 and a negative Beneish M-Score of -2.45, signaling low distress risk and minimal earnings manipulation concerns, though the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 suggests limited momentum in fundamental improvements relative to peers.
Valuation metrics indicate that while the current P/E ratio of 27.7x trades at a discount to the sector average of 30.8x, the market pricing appears disconnected from intrinsic value models which suggest significant downside potential. A DCF analysis places fair value at $111, implying an upside deficit of -77.4% relative to current levels, a divergence that may reflect skepticism regarding the sustainability of the implied 15.4% ten-year free cash flow growth rate. This valuation gap exists despite robust gross margins near 40.9%, suggesting the market is pricing in execution risks or macro headwinds rather than fundamental deterioration alone.
Risk factors further complicate the investment thesis, as the stock has underperformed broad factor benchmarks with a Fama-French Alpha of -19.67% annually and weak profitability signals from an RMW factor score of -0.098. Compounding these quantitative headwinds is notable insider activity, with $8,155,766 in net selling over the past 90 days, which often precedes periods of elevated volatility or strategic reassessment by management. Collectively, these data points paint a picture of a fundamentally sound but valuation-challenged entity facing headwinds from capital efficiency metrics and negative factor exposures that warrant close monitoring for potential mean reversion or further deterioration before any entry consideration arises.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 4% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.7% | 9.7% | 11.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $146 | $94 | $63 |
| 3% | $180 | $110 | $73 |
| 4% | $232 | $132 | $84 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $482.08.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.7%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $110 (-78.6%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 13% below its 5-year average P/E of 32.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) is currently trading below both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, indicating a recent decline in price that may suggest weakening momentum within the trend cycle. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 29.5 places the stock in oversold territory, which could signal potential near-term buying pressure or stabilization based on historical patterns.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | $0.4700 | +9.3% |
| 2025-12-15 | $0.4300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-09-15 | $0.4300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-06-13 | $0.4300 | 0.0% |
| 2025-03-14 | $0.4300 | +10.3% |
| 2024-12-13 | $0.3900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-09-13 | $0.3900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-06-14 | $0.3900 | 0.0% |
| 2024-03-14 | $0.3900 | +11.4% |
| 2023-12-14 | $0.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-09-14 | $0.3500 | 0.0% |
| 2023-06-14 | $0.3500 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Smart Money Flow
Institutional 13F filings from top hedge funds. Positions updated quarterly from SEC EDGAR.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares Change | % Change | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | +3,442,447 | +259.5% | Increased |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | +13,500 | +519.2% | Increased |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | +1,324,350 | +1536.4% | Increased |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | +30,400 | +42.2% | Increased |
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | -178,700 | -38.0% | Decreased |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2026-Q1 | +94,600 | +100.0% | New Position |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | +10,372 | +100.0% | New Position |
| Millennium Management | 2025-Q4 | +9,900 | +13.0% | Increased |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2025-Q4 | +2,600 | +100.0% | New Position |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | -149,600 | -24.1% | Decreased |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2025-Q4 | +54,800 | +316.8% | Increased |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | +1,058,505 | +395.0% | Increased |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end. Not investment advice.
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IYH or XLV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell TMO shares regardless of Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $20.5B of passive capital is structurally linked to TMO through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with TMO. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 27 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
TMO Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 9 TMO shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.3% of the IYH (IYH) and 3.2% of the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV). Across 26 tracked ETFs, approximately 44M shares (11.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest TMO Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 26 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
TMO Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. over the past year sits near $482.01 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $482.08 trades 0.0% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
TMO Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. converts 55% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.5%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 372 | $478.96 | $178,173.12 |
| 2026-04-30 | 460 | $466.26 | $214,479.6 |
| 2026-04-27 | 4 | $469.71 | $1,878.84 |
| 2026-04-20 | 936 | $526.60 | $492,897.6 |
| 2026-04-15 | 615 | $527.22 | $324,240.3 |
| 2026-04-14 | 85 | $514.23 | $43,709.55 |
| 2026-03-26 | 1,100 | $490.77 | $539,847 |
| 2026-03-25 | 38 | $490.29 | $18,631.02 |
| 2026-03-24 | 79 | $478.12 | $37,771.48 |
| 2026-03-11 | 4,394 | $500.08 | $2.2M |
| 2026-02-27 | 157 | $520.12 | $81,658.84 |
| 2026-02-25 | 2,683 | $515.60 | $1.4M |
| 2026-02-23 | 100 | $510.93 | $51,093 |
| 2026-01-21 | 801 | $619.01 | $495,827.01 |
| 2026-01-20 | 208 | $618.72 | $128,693.76 |
| 2026-01-12 | 6 | $618.86 | $3,713.16 |
| 2025-12-23 | 1,986 | $575.70 | $1.1M |
| 2025-12-22 | 193 | $567.83 | $109,591.19 |
| 2025-12-19 | 2 | $562.39 | $1,124.78 |
| 2025-12-09 | 244 | $568.21 | $138,643.24 |
| 2025-11-24 | 201 | $587.48 | $118,083.48 |
| 2025-11-14 | 10 | $580.13 | $5,801.3 |
| 2025-11-04 | 7,160 | $564.88 | $4.0M |
| 2025-10-30 | 223 | $558.31 | $124,503.13 |
| 2025-10-27 | 26 | $572.50 | $14,885 |
| 2025-10-24 | 4 | $571.91 | $2,287.64 |
| 2025-10-21 | 2,196 | $543.84 | $1.2M |
| 2025-10-20 | 1,925 | $538.92 | $1.0M |
| 2025-10-17 | 497 | $536.78 | $266,779.66 |
| 2025-10-10 | 80 | $534.68 | $42,774.4 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Institutional Holdings (13F Filings)
Raw SEC 13F-HR filings from institutional investment managers. Shows exact share counts and portfolio values as reported to the SEC.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares | Value ($K) |
|---|---|---|---|
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | 4,768,924 | $692,590,833K |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | 1,410,550 | $204,854,176K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | 291,200 | $42,290,976K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | 102,500 | $14,886,075K |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2026-Q1 | 94,600 | $13,738,758K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | 16,100 | $2,338,203K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | 10,372 | $1,506,326K |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | 1,326,477 | $212,368,968K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | 469,900 | $75,230,990K |
| Millennium Management | 2025-Q4 | 86,200 | $13,800,620K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2025-Q4 | 72,100 | $11,543,210K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2025-Q4 | 2,600 | $416,260K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q3 | 619,500 | $96,134,010K |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q3 | 267,972 | $41,583,895K |
| Millennium Management | 2025-Q3 | 76,300 | $11,840,234K |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. Values reported in thousands. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| DHR | 0.819 | 0.735 | High co-movement |
| A | 0.783 | 0.694 | High co-movement |
| MTD | 0.768 | 0.718 | High co-movement |
| IQV | 0.723 | 0.638 | High co-movement |
| WAT | 0.641 | 0.507 | Moderate |
| PFE | 0.569 | 0.385 | Moderate |
| TXG | 0.564 | 0.450 | Moderate |
| ILMN | 0.563 | 0.408 | Moderate |
| MRK | 0.524 | 0.235 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare TMO to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.