ETF · Consumer Cyclical

State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF(XLY)

$118.01
+0.76%
Expense Ratio
$21.4B
Total AUM
Holdings
Inception
Active Share vs VOO
Truly Active
0%20%60%100%
90.1%

AI Look-Through Summary

AI Generated

The portfolio is heavily concentrated in consumer cyclical stocks, with over 96% of its allocation dedicated to this sector. This is not surprising given the fund's category classification as a Consumer Cyclical ETF. The top holdings reveal a strong tilt towards large-cap growth companies, particularly Amazon (22.4%) and Tesla (19.7%), which are among the largest constituents in the portfolio. These stocks contribute significantly to the fund's valuation posture, with a weighted P/E ratio of 33.4x and a weighted P/B ratio of 9.36x.

The sector allocation is largely consistent with the broader market, but the concentration risk is high due to the significant weights assigned to individual stocks. The portfolio's reliance on Amazon and Tesla means that it will be sensitive to any developments affecting these companies, which could have a disproportionate impact on the fund's performance. A favorable macro environment for this portfolio would likely involve a strong consumer spending cycle, driven by economic growth and low unemployment. Conversely, a decline in consumer confidence or an increase in interest rates could negatively affect the fund's returns.

Generated by Qwen-32B from constituent-level data. Not investment advice. Updated: 2026-07-06 08:05:40.073801+00

🔍 Theme Alignment Audit

AI GeneratedPurity: 98/100

The investment theme implied by the name "Consumer Discretionary Select Sector" is executed with exceptional precision, as virtually every significant holding falls squarely within the Consumer Cyclical classification. The portfolio demonstrates a tight thematic focus without straying into unrelated sectors; even prominent constituents like Amazon and Tesla are categorized here based on their primary revenue drivers related to consumer goods and services rather than pure technology or industrials. There is no evidence of broad-market dilution, as the fund avoids large-cap names from non-targeted industries that often appear in sector-agnostic strategies. The composition reflects a deliberate selection process aimed at isolating specific discretionary spending patterns while maintaining strict adherence to the stated investment objective.

Concentration risk remains a defining characteristic of this structure, with the top ten holdings accounting for over seventy-two percent of total assets and two companies alone comprising nearly forty-eight percent of the portfolio. This heavy weighting in mega-cap leaders like Amazon and Tesla creates a performance profile that is heavily dependent on these specific equities rather than the broader dispersion typical of an index fund within this sector. While the sector breakdown confirms ninety-six point five percent allocation to Consumer Cyclical industries, ensuring high coherence with the theme, the lack of diversification across mid-tier or smaller-cap discretionary names means the fund behaves more like a concentrated equity vehicle than a true broad-sector benchmark. Investors seeking exposure specifically to large-cap discretionary leaders will find strong alignment here, whereas those desiring wider sector representation may observe limited differentiation from index counterparts due to this inherent concentration.

AI analysis of holdings alignment vs fund theme. Not investment advice. Updated: 2026-05-24 13:45:01.008581+00

🏢 Sector Analysis

AI Generated

The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF exhibits an allocation profile that is almost entirely concentrated within the consumer cyclical sector, accounting for 96.6% of its assets across forty holdings. This extreme focus aligns directly with a pure-play investment thesis targeting companies whose revenues fluctuate significantly alongside discretionary income levels and economic cycles. The minimal exposure to technology at 0.9% and industrials at 0.1% confirms that the fund avoids broad market diversification, instead isolating specific consumer-facing dynamics from other macroeconomic drivers. Such a narrow definition of sector boundaries means the portfolio's performance will be highly correlated with broader discretionary spending trends rather than general technological innovation or industrial output growth.

Concentration risk is further amplified by the distribution among top holdings, where Amazon and Tesla collectively represent nearly half of the fund's total assets at 47.7%. The fact that the top ten positions account for over 72% of the portfolio indicates a significant reliance on the largest market participants within this specific niche. This structure implies that idiosyncratic events affecting these two giants or shifts in their competitive landscapes could disproportionately influence overall fund volatility compared to more broadly diversified sector peers. Additionally, the inclusion of diverse business models under the consumer cyclical umbrella—from retail and automotive to home improvement and dining—suggests an attempt to capture various facets of discretionary consumption while maintaining strict adherence to the designated sector classification standards.

The factor tilts inherent in this allocation suggest a heavy weighting toward large-cap growth characteristics driven by the dominance of high-valuation technology-enabled retailers and automakers within the consumer basket. While the fund aims for sector purity, the specific composition introduces substantial beta exposure relative to changes in interest rates and consumer confidence metrics. Investors examining these data points must weigh the potential for amplified returns during robust economic expansions against the heightened susceptibility to downturns that specifically impact discretionary spending power. The absence of hedging mechanisms or diversification into defensive sectors leaves the fund's trajectory tightly bound to the cyclical nature of its primary asset class.

AI-generated sector analysis from constituent-level data. Not investment advice. Updated: 2026-05-21 03:25:47.343764+00

Flow Driver Analysis

2-Step Circle

Which larger ETFs share XLY's holdings — and mechanically drive its price through index rebalancing flows?

Approximately 100% of XLY's weight flows through these larger ETFs

Driver ETFAUMExpenseShared StocksWeight Overlap
SPTMSPTM$12B4898.7%
SPYState Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust$640B0.09%4898.7%
ONEOONEO$25M4898.7%
VOOVanguard S&P 500 ETF$1.5T0.03%4798.7%
VCRVCR$6B4798.7%

99% of XLY's portfolio by weight is also held by SPTM. When SPTM receives inflows, it mechanically buys these shared stocks — dragging XLY's NAV along regardless of any thematic or sector catalyst. Combined, the top 5 overlapping ETFs control exposure to 100% ofXLY's weight.

Overlap computed from constituent-level holdings data across 5 ETFs. Price co-movement with driver ETFs is structural, not coincidental. Not investment advice.

ETF Look-Through Dashboard

Peer through the ETF wrapper to see exactly what you own. Every metric is computed from constituent-level data.

32.9x
Weighted P/E
9.23x
Weighted P/B
$932B
Wtd Avg Market Cap

Weighted metrics calculated based on 98% of fund assets with available data.

Herfindahl-Hirschman Concentration Index

010002000300040001030
Well Diversified
Top 5: 55.9%Top 10: 69.3%

Morningstar-Style Box

Value
Blend
Growth
Large
Mid
Small
Large Growth

Sector & Cap Explorer

Consumer Cyclical96.3%
Visualization Mode

ETF Fundamental Radar

Total Analysis
97% Weight
Market Cap
Large
Risk Profile
Moderate

Operational health is mixed, with the bulk of weight in the mid-range (4–6) Piotroski scores.

Piotroski F-Score (Operational Health)

Score 0-9: Measures Profitability, Leverage, and Efficiency

↑ Weight (%)100%80%60%40%20%
3%
0–3 Weak
81%
4–6 Average
14%
7–9 Strong

Computed by rolling up individual stock Piotroski F-Scores, Altman Z-Scores, and Beneish M-Scores weighted by each constituent's allocation.

Dividend Safety True-Up

Deterministic
66%
Wtd FCF Payout Ratio
1.07%
TTM Yield
Safe
Dividend Durability
66% of FCF
0% (retains all cash)50%100% (pays out everything)

The dividend-paying companies inside XLY collectively pay out 66% of their Free Cash Flow to maintain the current yield. This is a sustainable payout level with moderate room for dividend growth. Based on 45% of fund weight in dividend-paying stocks.

FCF Payout Ratio = Dividends Paid / Free Cash Flow, weighted by constituent allocation. Not investment advice.

Earnings vs. Price Decomposition

Proprietary
+8.5%
ETF 1Y Return
-8.5%
Wtd Earnings Growth
+17.0%
Multiple Expansion
P/E Inflation

XLY is up 8.5% over the last 12 months. The underlying weighted earnings growth of its constituents is -8.5%. The remaining +17.0% of performance is driven by multiple expansion (P/E inflation) — prices rose faster than earnings grew.

Earnings growth = weighted average YoY EPS growth of all constituents (capped at ±500% to limit outlier distortion). Based on 94% of fund weight with earnings data. Not investment advice.

Value Creation Map

ROIC vs WACC

What percentage of XLY's weight is allocated to companies that create economic value (ROIC > WACC) vs. destroy it?

47% Creators
53% Destroyers
Value Creators (ROIC > WACC)44.8%
Value Destroyers50.8%

Of XLY's analyzed weight, 47% is invested in companies earning more than their cost of capital — genuine value creators. The remaining 53% consists of companies whose ROIC falls below their WACC, effectively destroying shareholder value with every dollar invested.

ROIC-WACC spread for 96% of fund weight with available data. Not investment advice.

Concentration Risk Monitor

CRITICAL
22.4%
Largest Holding
AMZN
46.4%
Top 3 Weight
10
Effective # of Stocks
51%
Top Stock Var. Share
Portfolio weight concentration
AMZN
TSLA
Other 43 stocks

AMZN at 22.4% has captured XLY's portfolio. The top 3 holdings (46%) dominate the fund's variance — the remaining 45 stocks provide minimal diversification.XLY effectively behaves like a 10-stock portfolio, not a 48-stock one.

Effective # of Stocks = 1 / HHI (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index). Variance share approximated as w² / Σw². Not investment advice.

Passive Crowding Score

MODERATE

How much of each constituent's market cap is structurally locked in passive ETFs — a proxy for liquidity fragility during sell-offs.

38/ 100
Wtd Avg Passive Ownership11.4%
Most Crowded HoldingTSCO (22.1%)
Least CrowdedNCLH (6.6%)
Coverage98% of fund weight
0 — Low255075100 — Extreme

XLY has a Passive Crowding Score of 38/100. On average, 11.4% of the market capitalization of XLY's underlying holdings is structurally locked in passive ETF vehicles. This indicates moderate passive ownership density. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption activity can amplify short-term volatility in the underlying holdings.

Passive $ = Σ(ETF AUM × holding weight) across all 49 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds). Not investment advice.

Under the Hood — Top 15 Constituents

Top 10 Concentration68.1%
#TickerCompanyWeightP/EF-Score
1AMZN
AMAZON.COM INC
Consumer Cyclical
22.37%
31.6x6/9
2TSLA
TESLA INC
Consumer Cyclical
18.17%
357.7x5/9
3HD
HOME DEPOT INC
Consumer Cyclical
5.85%
25.4x4/9
4MCD
MCDONALD S CORP
Consumer Cyclical
4.26%
23.2x6/9
5TJX
TJX COMPANIES INC
Consumer Cyclical
3.95%
30.0x7/9
6BKNG
BOOKING HOLDINGS INC
Consumer Cyclical
3.52%
24.3x5/9
7LOW
LOWE S COS INC
Consumer Cyclical
3.14%
19.2x5/9
8SBUX
STARBUCKS CORP
Consumer Cyclical
2.92%
79.6x5/9
9MAR
MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL CL A
Consumer Cyclical
2.01%
39.1x7/9
10HLT
HILTON WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS IN
Consumer Cyclical
1.89%
51.5x5/9
11ORLY
O REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC
Consumer Cyclical
1.84%
29.4x7/9
12RCL
ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD
Consumer Cyclical
1.82%
18.1x7/9
13DASH
DOORDASH INC A
Consumer Cyclical
1.79%
91.0x5/9
14ROST
ROSS STORES INC
Consumer Cyclical
1.69%
29.9x6/9
15GM
GENERAL MOTORS CO
Consumer Cyclical
1.69%
27.7x5/9
The bottom 33 stocks in XLY account for only 23.1% of the total fund weight.

Historical Holdings Snapshots

Browse how XLY’s holdings have changed across SEC filing dates. Showing top holdings per snapshot.

2026-07-07

15 holdings · 76.9% tracked weight
#TickerWeightSharesMarket Value
1AMZN22.37%20,955,390
2TSLA18.17%10,495,324
3HD5.85%3,713,168
4MCD4.26%3,453,917
5TJX3.95%5,820,118
6BKNG3.52%4,333,388
7LOW3.14%3,132,070
8SBUX2.92%6,373,617
9MAR2.01%1,223,968
10HLT1.89%1,273,109
11ORLY1.84%4,634,527
12RCL1.82%1,394,860
13DASH1.79%2,116,346
14ROST1.69%1,801,596
15GM1.69%5,042,492

2026-07-06

15 holdings · 78.2% tracked weight
#TickerWeightSharesMarket Value
1AMZN22.39%21,207,194
2TSLA19.73%10,621,456
3HD5.76%3,757,788
4MCD4.11%3,495,409
5TJX3.89%5,890,038
6BKNG3.50%4,385,460
7LOW3.07%3,169,698
8SBUX2.91%6,450,207
9MAR1.99%1,238,688
10ORLY1.90%4,690,233
11RCL1.89%1,411,604
12HLT1.87%1,288,427
13DASH1.77%2,141,784
14ROST1.69%1,823,262
15GM1.68%5,103,074

2026-07-05

15 holdings · 78.2% tracked weight
#TickerWeightSharesMarket Value
1AMZN22.39%21,207,194
2TSLA19.73%10,621,456
3HD5.76%3,757,788
4MCD4.11%3,495,409
5TJX3.89%5,890,038
6BKNG3.50%4,385,460
7LOW3.07%3,169,698
8SBUX2.91%6,450,207
9MAR1.99%1,238,688
10ORLY1.90%4,690,233
11RCL1.89%1,411,604
12HLT1.87%1,288,427
13DASH1.77%2,141,784
14ROST1.69%1,823,262
15GM1.68%5,103,074

2026-07-04

15 holdings · 78.2% tracked weight
#TickerWeightSharesMarket Value
1AMZN22.39%21,207,194
2TSLA19.73%10,621,456
3HD5.76%3,757,788
4MCD4.11%3,495,409
5TJX3.89%5,890,038
6BKNG3.50%4,385,460
7LOW3.07%3,169,698
8SBUX2.91%6,450,207
9MAR1.99%1,238,688
10ORLY1.90%4,690,233
11RCL1.89%1,411,604
12HLT1.87%1,288,427
13DASH1.77%2,141,784
14ROST1.69%1,823,262
15GM1.68%5,103,074

2026-07-03

15 holdings · 78.2% tracked weight
#TickerWeightSharesMarket Value
1AMZN22.39%21,207,194
2TSLA19.73%10,621,456
3HD5.76%3,757,788
4MCD4.11%3,495,409
5TJX3.89%5,890,038
6BKNG3.50%4,385,460
7LOW3.07%3,169,698
8SBUX2.91%6,450,207
9MAR1.99%1,238,688
10ORLY1.90%4,690,233
11RCL1.89%1,411,604
12HLT1.87%1,288,427
13DASH1.77%2,141,784
14ROST1.69%1,823,262
15GM1.68%5,103,074

2026-07-02

15 holdings · 78.3% tracked weight
#TickerWeightSharesMarket Value
1AMZN22.28%21,119,610
2TSLA19.69%10,577,584
3HD5.84%3,742,268
4MCD4.16%3,480,977
5TJX3.93%5,865,718
6BKNG3.45%4,367,348
7LOW3.08%3,156,610
8SBUX2.91%6,423,567
9MAR2.02%1,233,568
10RCL1.98%1,405,780
11ORLY1.90%4,670,857
12HLT1.88%1,283,099
13DASH1.74%2,132,936
14GM1.73%5,082,002
15ROST1.71%1,815,726

Source: SEC filings and fund provider disclosures. Shows last 6 snapshot dates, top 15 holdings per date by weight.

Risk Profile

23.2%
Annual Volatility
0.23
Sharpe (1Y)
-15.1%
Max Drawdown (5Y)

Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Computed from 1,200+ trading days with 5% risk-free rate.

Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure

Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this ETF's returns.

1.14
Market β
+0.353
Size (SMB)
Small-cap tilt
-0.105
Value (HML)
Growth tilt
+0.313
Profit (RMW)
Robust
+0.058
Invest (CMA)
Neutral
Alpha (annual): -5.38%
R²: 82.9%of variance explained by 5 factors

Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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What Drove XLY Today?

Daily return attribution — which holdings contributed most (and least) to the fund's move.

Fund move:+0.76%(2026-07-06)

Top Contributors

+0.171%
+0.116%
+0.090%

Top Detractors

-0.050%
-0.062%
-1.478%

Attribution = holding weight × stock daily return. Only the top contributors and detractors are shown.

Technical Setup

AI Generated

The XLY ETF is trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a short-term downtrend relative to recent price action. The RSI at 34.7 suggests the near-term momentum may be weakening but still within neutral territory, not yet signaling oversold conditions.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the ETF's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

Loading beta chart...
Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Yield & Income

1.07%
TTM Yield
30-Day SEC Yield
5Y Div CAGR

Sector Drift Over Time

How XLY’s sector allocation has shifted across snapshots. Use the slider to travel through time.

2026-07-0783 snapshots
Consumer Cyclical96.3%
Other2.7%
Technology1.0%
Change since 2026-03-26
Consumer Cyclical
+0.2%
Industrials
-0.2%
2026-03-262026-07-07

Active Conviction Tracker

Shares bought and sold between the latest two data snapshots — reveals what the fund manager is actually doing.

Comparing 2026-07-062026-07-070 buys, 48 sells

Positions Increased (0)

Positions Decreased (48)

SELL-
5.1M1.9M-3.2M (-62.4%)
0.01%(-0.01)
SELLF
22.2M21.9M-263K (-1.2%)
1.29%(-0.03)
SELLAMZN
21.2M21.0M-252K (-1.2%)
22.37%(-0.02)
SELLTSLA
10.6M10.5M-126K (-1.2%)
18.17%(-1.57)
SELLCCL
7.3M7.2M-86K (-1.2%)
0.88%(-0.02)
SELLCMG
7.3M7.2M-86K (-1.2%)
1.12%(+0.01)
SELLNKE
6.8M6.7M-81K (-1.2%)
1.30%(+0.02)
SELLSBUX
6.5M6.4M-77K (-1.2%)
2.92%(+0.01)

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Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-07-06.

SecuritiesDB is for informational purposes only. Not investment advice.