Adeia Inc. (ADEA)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 25.9x earnings — a 60% discount to the sector average of 65.0x — ADEA is in the lower valuation range. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 4.4 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold).
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedAdeia Inc. demonstrates robust fundamental economics, characterized by a healthy ROIC-WACC spread of +5.7%, indicating that the company generates returns on invested capital significantly above its cost of capital. This efficiency is underpinned by strong profitability metrics, with net margins expanding to 25.1% and revenue growth accelerating at 17.9% year-over-year; however, leverage remains a critical variable in this DuPont decomposition, as the provided data does not isolate equity multipliers or asset turnover ratios to fully explain the ROE drivers beyond margin performance. Qualitative financial health is further reinforced by a high Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and an Altman Z-Score of 4.4, suggesting strong balance sheet stability and positive operating momentum relative to peers in the technology sector.
Despite these operational strengths, valuation metrics present a distinct divergence from historical norms and industry benchmarks. The current P/E ratio of 25.9x trades at a substantial discount compared to the sector average of 63.0x, implying that market participants are pricing in significantly lower growth expectations or assigning higher risk premiums relative to comparable technology firms. A discounted cash flow analysis suggests a fair value of $13, which serves as an anchor for assessing whether current market prices reflect intrinsic worth or incorporate conservative assumptions regarding future free cash flow generation and terminal growth rates. This valuation gap between the company's operational efficiency and its multiple compression warrants scrutiny into whether the discount reflects temporary headwinds or structural differences in capital allocation that are not captured by standard margin analysis.
The risk-reward profile appears bifurcated, with strong fundamental scores contrasting against a significant valuation discount relative to sector peers. While the high F-Score indicates resilience and low distress probability per the Altman model, the wide disparity between Adeia's 25.9x multiple and the sector average of 63.0x suggests the market may be compensating for specific idiosyncratic risks not fully detailed in the provided metrics. Investors must weigh whether the current pricing adequately accounts for potential downside volatility or if it offers a margin of safety relative to the DCF-derived fair value, particularly given that the data does not explicitly quantify beta exposure or recent insider trading activity which often precedes material price movements.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
InteractiveSensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.3% | 9.3% | 11.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $16 | $11 | $8 |
| 3% | $20 | $13 | $9 |
| 4% | $26 | $15 | $10 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs —.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $13 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XSW or SLYG, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ADEA shares regardless of Adeia Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $173M of passive capital is structurally linked to ADEA through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on ADEA's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Adeia Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Adeia Inc. (ADEA) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies SANMINA CORP (SANM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with ADEA. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 8 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ADEA Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest ADEA Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 8 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ADEA Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Adeia Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Adeia Inc. converts 62% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 5.7% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 330 | $29.53 | $9,744.9 |
| 2026-04-22 | 15 | $29.72 | $445.8 |
| 2026-04-21 | 56 | $29.52 | $1,653.12 |
| 2026-04-10 | 8,400 | $27.06 | $227,304 |
| 2026-04-09 | 6,355 | $26.20 | $166,501 |
| 2026-04-08 | 9,700 | $25.51 | $247,447 |
| 2026-03-31 | 19,763 | $23.13 | $457,118.19 |
| 2026-03-19 | 700 | $23.23 | $16,261 |
| 2026-03-17 | 174 | $22.96 | $3,995.04 |
| 2026-03-09 | 204 | $19.87 | $4,053.48 |
| 2026-03-06 | 762 | $21.00 | $16,002 |
| 2026-03-05 | 68 | $20.75 | $1,411 |
| 2026-02-26 | 24,527 | $20.67 | $506,973.09 |
| 2026-02-25 | 80 | $19.75 | $1,580 |
| 2026-01-30 | 2 | $18.11 | $36.22 |
| 2026-01-21 | 1,228 | $19.15 | $23,516.2 |
| 2026-01-09 | 138 | $17.95 | $2,477.1 |
| 2026-01-08 | 4,791 | $18.08 | $86,621.28 |
| 2025-12-30 | 621 | $17.31 | $10,749.51 |
| 2025-12-24 | 17,930 | $17.07 | $306,065.1 |
| 2025-12-19 | 683 | $13.00 | $8,879 |
| 2025-12-17 | 7 | $13.03 | $91.21 |
| 2025-12-12 | 167 | $13.56 | $2,264.52 |
| 2025-12-01 | 51 | $12.37 | $630.87 |
| 2025-11-28 | 2,507 | $12.31 | $30,861.17 |
| 2025-11-12 | 10,313 | $13.96 | $143,969.48 |
| 2025-11-06 | 194 | $13.78 | $2,673.32 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare ADEA to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.