ADT Inc. (ADT)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicStrong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 8/9).
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
DCF Sandbox
InteractiveSensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $34 | $22 | $16 |
| 3% | $41 | $26 | $18 |
| 4% | $51 | $31 | $20 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs —.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $26 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like SLYV or SPSM, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ADT shares regardless of ADT Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $130M of passive capital is structurally linked to ADT through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on ADT's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in ADT Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If ADT Inc. (ADT) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with ADT. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 10 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ADT Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest ADT Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 10 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ADT Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does ADT Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
ADT Inc. converts 49% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 51% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 10,410 | $6.79 | $70,683.9 |
| 2026-05-11 | 299,970 | $6.87 | $2.1M |
| 2026-05-06 | 98 | $7.01 | $686.98 |
| 2026-04-28 | 109,606 | $7.22 | $791,355.32 |
| 2026-04-24 | 22,750 | $7.24 | $164,710 |
| 2026-04-20 | 1,699 | $7.27 | $12,351.73 |
| 2026-04-17 | 4,289 | $7.09 | $30,409.01 |
| 2026-04-15 | 23 | $6.98 | $160.54 |
| 2026-04-07 | 1,843 | $6.66 | $12,274.38 |
| 2026-04-02 | 6,584 | $6.55 | $43,125.2 |
| 2026-03-31 | 828 | $6.47 | $5,357.16 |
| 2026-03-23 | 138,787 | $6.51 | $903,503.37 |
| 2026-03-04 | 1,978 | $6.85 | $13,549.3 |
| 2026-03-03 | 11,750 | $7.12 | $83,660 |
| 2026-02-17 | 3 | $7.74 | $23.22 |
| 2026-02-10 | 357 | $8.11 | $2,895.27 |
| 2025-12-22 | 28 | $8.13 | $227.64 |
| 2025-12-15 | 1,090 | $8.16 | $8,894.4 |
| 2025-11-05 | 53,050 | $8.08 | $428,644 |
| 2025-10-24 | 7,926 | $8.71 | $69,035.46 |
| 2025-10-15 | 193,240 | $8.55 | $1.7M |
| 2025-10-14 | 93 | $8.51 | $791.43 |
| 2025-10-06 | 17 | $8.80 | $149.6 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare ADT to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.