Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicALAB trades at 233.2x earnings — a 259% premium to its sector average of 65.0x — without a dominant ROIC-WACC spread. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 65.5. Beneish M-Score of 1.55 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Astera Labs reveal a high-margin, asset-light business model where profitability is driven primarily by exceptional net margins rather than operational leverage or balance sheet expansion. The DuPont decomposition highlights that the 16.1% ROE stems from a robust 25.7% net margin combined with moderate asset turnover and minimal equity multiplier usage of 1.12x, indicating efficient capital deployment without significant debt financing. While the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 suggests intermediate financial strength lacking recent aggressive improvement signals, the Beneish M-Score of 1.55 points to low probabilities of earnings manipulation, reinforcing credibility in reported performance despite the rapid revenue expansion.
Valuation metrics indicate a substantial premium relative to historical norms and sector peers, with the current P/E ratio at 86.6x significantly exceeding the technology sector average of 56.8x. This disparity suggests the market is pricing in aggressive future growth expectations that far outpace recent annualized trends; such high multiples often compress when realized growth fails to meet elevated forecasts. However, a DCF analysis anchors fair value at $59 per share, implying that current trading levels may already incorporate optimistic assumptions regarding long-term compounding and risk-adjusted returns. The disconnect between the expansive revenue trajectory of 115% year-over-year and the steep valuation multiple creates inherent sensitivity to any deceleration in growth velocity or margin erosion.
Risk assessment is complicated by divergent signals, as a net insider selling flow exceeding $50 million over ninety days contrasts with strong top-line momentum. This divergence warrants scrutiny regarding management's view of near-term liquidity needs versus long-term strategic positioning within the semiconductor interface ecosystem. While the gross margin of 75.7% underscores pricing power and product stickiness, the combination of elevated valuation, insider outflows, and a middling Piotroski score suggests that downside volatility could be pronounced if growth rates normalize or competitive dynamics shift. Investors must weigh whether the current price adequately compensates for these execution risks relative to the potential upside from sustained hyper-growth.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $73 | $53 | $42 |
| 3% | $85 | $59 | $45 |
| 4% | $104 | $68 | $50 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $355.76.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $59 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedAstera Labs, Inc. is currently trading at $287.48 within the technology sector, a level that reflects significant market valuation relative to its peers. The absence of specific drawdown metrics or volatility indices in the provided dataset limits a precise quantification of recent price stability; however, the high absolute price point often correlates with elevated beta and sensitivity to broader tech sector sentiment shifts without explicit confirmation of current risk premiums from the supplied text. This fundamental backdrop suggests that any observed momentum is heavily dependent on external macroeconomic factors rather than isolated technical strength alone. The structural integrity of this upward trajectory remains ambiguous given the lack of supporting data regarding recent pullbacks or standard deviation measures. Without evidence of sustained volume support during minor retracements, the current price action could be interpreted as fragile if it relies solely on speculative inflows rather than deepening fundamental adoption rates specific to the company's revenue model. The market positioning at this premium level implies that future movements will likely test whether the valuation can hold under potential liquidity tightening or sector-wide corrections. Ultimately, the technical landscape presents a scenario where momentum appears exposed to external shocks due to the missing context on volatility regimes and historical drawdown resilience. Observers must weigh the high entry point against the uncertainty of sustaining such levels without corroborating data on risk-adjusted returns. The interplay between current pricing and unseen fundamental drivers suggests that while growth narratives may support the price, the absence of verified stability metrics introduces a layer of fragility to any perceived trend
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XSD or VBK, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ALAB shares regardless of Astera Labs, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $2.4B of passive capital is structurally linked to ALAB through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Astera Labs, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with ALAB. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 10 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ALAB Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 13 ALAB shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.8% of the XSD (XSD) and 0.8% of the VBK (VBK). Across 11 tracked ETFs, approximately 13M shares (7.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest ALAB Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 11 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ALAB Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Astera Labs, Inc. over the past year sits near $173.05 (16% of 252-day volume). The current price of $355.76 trades 105.6% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (16% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
ALAB Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Astera Labs, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Astera Labs, Inc. converts 156% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 129 | $224.09 | $28,907.61 |
| 2026-05-13 | 90,271 | $204.42 | $18.5M |
| 2026-05-11 | 1,100 | $199.79 | $219,769 |
| 2026-05-07 | 2,372 | $213.91 | $507,394.52 |
| 2026-05-05 | 311 | $201.25 | $62,588.75 |
| 2026-05-04 | 1,153 | $202.68 | $233,690.04 |
| 2026-04-30 | 108 | $196.85 | $21,259.8 |
| 2026-04-29 | 15,153 | $183.31 | $2.8M |
| 2026-04-27 | 1,853 | $212.84 | $394,392.52 |
| 2026-04-24 | 1,349 | $197.54 | $266,481.46 |
| 2026-04-21 | 26,920 | $175.80 | $4.7M |
| 2026-04-20 | 1 | $174.05 | $174.05 |
| 2026-04-15 | 90,164 | $170.60 | $15.4M |
| 2026-04-13 | 3,000 | $149.05 | $447,150 |
| 2026-04-09 | 3,132 | $125.46 | $392,940.72 |
| 2026-04-08 | 8,999 | $118.99 | $1.1M |
| 2026-04-07 | 5,554 | $117.99 | $655,316.46 |
| 2026-04-06 | 48,088 | $117.14 | $5.6M |
| 2026-03-24 | 1 | $123.87 | $123.87 |
| 2026-03-23 | 100 | $116.04 | $11,604 |
| 2026-03-20 | 1,306 | $126.16 | $164,764.96 |
| 2026-03-17 | 1 | $127.48 | $127.48 |
| 2026-03-05 | 3,886 | $113.77 | $442,110.22 |
| 2026-03-03 | 20,982 | $120.55 | $2.5M |
| 2026-02-26 | 105 | $128.15 | $13,455.75 |
| 2026-02-24 | 71 | $128.24 | $9,105.04 |
| 2026-02-23 | 366 | $129.68 | $47,462.88 |
| 2026-02-09 | 1,012 | $169.85 | $171,888.2 |
| 2026-02-03 | 2,335 | $152.44 | $355,947.4 |
| 2026-01-21 | 44,264 | $183.75 | $8.1M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare ALAB to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.