Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicANET trades at 55.0x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 65.0x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 18.2. DCF fair value of $121 implies 20% downside based on model assumptions. Beneish M-Score of -2.19 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe company exhibits exceptional fundamental quality, characterized by a robust ROIC of 21.6% and an Altman Z-Score of 16.9 that signals negligible bankruptcy risk, while the Beneish M-Score of -2.19 strongly suggests clean earnings with no signs of manipulation. The DuPont decomposition reveals that this 28.4% return on equity is primarily driven by superior operating efficiency rather than leverage or asset intensity; specifically, a net margin of 39.0% and gross margin of 64.1% are amplified only modestly by an equity multiplier of 1.57x and an asset turnover of 0.46x. Despite this high-quality balance sheet and revenue growth accelerating at 28.6% year-over-year, the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates a lack of recent fundamental improvement or stability in financial health metrics compared to historical standards.
Valuation analysis presents a significant disconnect between current market pricing and intrinsic value models. Trading at a forward P/E of 46.1x, which is substantially elevated relative to typical sector benchmarks for hardware infrastructure firms, the stock appears fully priced into aggressive growth expectations. The DCF model calculates a fair value of $121 with an implied upside of merely -1.3%, suggesting that current market prices already incorporate the assumption of 15% annual free cash flow growth over the next decade; any deviation from this trajectory would likely trigger immediate re-rating. This pricing dynamic reflects a premium valuation for high-margin software and services characteristics, yet it leaves little margin of safety if macroeconomic headwinds impact capital expenditure cycles or customer spending patterns.
Risk factor synthesis highlights potential divergence between momentum drivers and value factors. While the stock demonstrates an impressive Fama-French Alpha of 24.39% annually, indicating strong outperformance independent of market beta, this is counterbalanced by a negative Value Factor (HML) of -0.746, confirming its classification as a pure growth tilt with minimal exposure to value characteristics. Furthermore, the Profitability Factor (RMW) registers at -0.104, which is anomalous given the reported margins and suggests that recent profitability trends may be underperforming relative to peers or that the factor model captures specific operational nuances not immediately visible in headline ratios. Most notably, insider activity over the last 90 days shows a net selling flow of $26.9 million, creating a friction between internal ownership sentiment and external price momentum that warrants close monitoring for potential trend exhaustion.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 29% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $148 | $109 | $85 |
| 3% | $173 | $121 | $92 |
| 4% | $211 | $138 | $102 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $175.33.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $121 (-20.3%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 97% above its 5-year average P/E of 27.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedArista Networks, Inc. is currently trading at $141.97 within the technology sector. To assess relative value, one must compare this current price level against the surrounding Simple Moving Average envelope to determine if the asset is positioned in a mean-reversion zone or trending away from its historical average. If the stock price hovers near the upper boundary of the moving average band while exhibiting signs of deceleration, it suggests potential downward pressure toward the mean, whereas proximity to the lower limit might indicate upward corrective momentum. The specific distance between $141.97 and these dynamic averages serves as a gauge for volatility compression or expansion relative to recent price action patterns. The positioning of the current price within this statistical framework provides context for future path probabilities without predicting exact outcomes. When prices deviate significantly from their long-term moving average trends, markets often experience a natural pullback toward equilibrium, creating an environment where mean-reversion strategies could theoretically be effective if momentum indicators confirm exhaustion. Conversely, sustained separation from the central trendline may imply that the current valuation reflects strong underlying demand or structural shifts in investor sentiment rather than temporary noise. Observing how $141.97 interacts with these calculated benchmarks offers insight into whether the security is overextended relative to its recent history or consolidating near a fair value estimate derived from past performance data.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IYZ or FDN, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ANET shares regardless of Arista Networks, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $19.9B of passive capital is structurally linked to ANET through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Arista Networks, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with ANET. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ANET Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 9 ANET shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 5.2% of the IYZ (IYZ) and 5.2% of the FDN (FDN). Across 29 tracked ETFs, approximately 133M shares (10.5% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest ANET Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 29 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ANET Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Arista Networks, Inc. over the past year sits near $139.75 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $175.33 trades 25.5% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
ANET Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Arista Networks, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Arista Networks, Inc. converts 108% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 162,476 | $140.69 | $22.9M |
| 2026-05-04 | 2 | $172.70 | $345.4 |
| 2026-04-27 | 1,300 | $176.91 | $229,983 |
| 2026-04-23 | 2,178 | $177.73 | $387,095.94 |
| 2026-04-21 | 2,722 | $166.85 | $454,165.7 |
| 2026-04-20 | 1,800 | $164.23 | $295,614 |
| 2026-04-17 | 312 | $161.01 | $50,235.12 |
| 2026-04-15 | 9 | $154.37 | $1,389.33 |
| 2026-04-13 | 8,248 | $147.35 | $1.2M |
| 2026-04-10 | 1,287 | $146.05 | $187,966.35 |
| 2026-04-06 | 1,809 | $126.68 | $229,164.12 |
| 2026-03-26 | 11,794 | $135.01 | $1.6M |
| 2026-03-25 | 103 | $130.80 | $13,472.4 |
| 2026-02-19 | 25,077 | $139.54 | $3.5M |
| 2026-02-17 | 100 | $141.59 | $14,159 |
| 2026-02-12 | 4 | $140.66 | $562.64 |
| 2026-02-11 | 1,943 | $143.45 | $278,723.35 |
| 2026-02-09 | 632 | $137.49 | $86,893.68 |
| 2026-02-02 | 11,653 | $141.74 | $1.7M |
| 2026-01-30 | 131 | $148.15 | $19,407.65 |
| 2026-01-28 | 543 | $146.69 | $79,652.67 |
| 2026-01-26 | 100 | $136.34 | $13,634 |
| 2026-01-08 | 40 | $130.08 | $5,203.2 |
| 2025-12-31 | 466 | $132.44 | $61,717.04 |
| 2025-12-30 | 4,513 | $134.15 | $605,418.95 |
| 2025-12-22 | 19,699 | $131.12 | $2.6M |
| 2025-12-19 | 849 | $124.62 | $105,802.38 |
| 2025-12-15 | 9,235 | $124.76 | $1.2M |
| 2025-12-12 | 8,351 | $134.39 | $1.1M |
| 2025-12-01 | 44 | $130.68 | $5,749.92 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| APH | 0.514 | 0.569 | Moderate |
| AVGO | 0.506 | 0.513 | Moderate |
| CRDO | 0.503 | 0.473 | Moderate |
| KYG254571055 | 0.503 | 0.473 | Moderate |
| SHOP | 0.498 | 0.397 | Moderate |
| NVDA | 0.477 | 0.522 | Moderate |
| EXTR | 0.477 | 0.304 | Moderate |
| VRT | 0.474 | 0.432 | Moderate |
| ETN | 0.465 | 0.435 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare ANET to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.