Technology

Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET)

$175.33
+2.72%
$200.8B
Market Cap
55.0
P/E Ratio
1.67
Beta
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 4/9Altman Z 18.2 SafeBeneish M -2.19 Flag (> −2.22)

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

ANET trades at 55.0x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 65.0x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 18.2. DCF fair value of $121 implies 20% downside based on model assumptions. Beneish M-Score of -2.19 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Algorithmic Teardown

AI-Generated

The company exhibits exceptional fundamental quality, characterized by a robust ROIC of 21.6% and an Altman Z-Score of 16.9 that signals negligible bankruptcy risk, while the Beneish M-Score of -2.19 strongly suggests clean earnings with no signs of manipulation. The DuPont decomposition reveals that this 28.4% return on equity is primarily driven by superior operating efficiency rather than leverage or asset intensity; specifically, a net margin of 39.0% and gross margin of 64.1% are amplified only modestly by an equity multiplier of 1.57x and an asset turnover of 0.46x. Despite this high-quality balance sheet and revenue growth accelerating at 28.6% year-over-year, the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 indicates a lack of recent fundamental improvement or stability in financial health metrics compared to historical standards.

Valuation analysis presents a significant disconnect between current market pricing and intrinsic value models. Trading at a forward P/E of 46.1x, which is substantially elevated relative to typical sector benchmarks for hardware infrastructure firms, the stock appears fully priced into aggressive growth expectations. The DCF model calculates a fair value of $121 with an implied upside of merely -1.3%, suggesting that current market prices already incorporate the assumption of 15% annual free cash flow growth over the next decade; any deviation from this trajectory would likely trigger immediate re-rating. This pricing dynamic reflects a premium valuation for high-margin software and services characteristics, yet it leaves little margin of safety if macroeconomic headwinds impact capital expenditure cycles or customer spending patterns.

Risk factor synthesis highlights potential divergence between momentum drivers and value factors. While the stock demonstrates an impressive Fama-French Alpha of 24.39% annually, indicating strong outperformance independent of market beta, this is counterbalanced by a negative Value Factor (HML) of -0.746, confirming its classification as a pure growth tilt with minimal exposure to value characteristics. Furthermore, the Profitability Factor (RMW) registers at -0.104, which is anomalous given the reported margins and suggests that recent profitability trends may be underperforming relative to peers or that the factor model captures specific operational nuances not immediately visible in headline ratios. Most notably, insider activity over the last 90 days shows a net selling flow of $26.9 million, creating a friction between internal ownership sentiment and external price momentum that warrants close monitoring for potential trend exhaustion.

Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.

DCF Sandbox

Interactive
Market Price
$175.33
Fair Value
$122
Implied Upside
-30.5%
$122IMPLIED FAIR VALUEOVERVALUEDOVERUNDER
Growth Rate (Y1–5)23%
-10%20%50%
Discount Rate (WACC)10.0%
5%12.5%20%

5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.

Reverse DCFMarket-Implied
17.9%annual FCF growth priced in at $175.33

The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 29% YoY revenue.

Sensitivity Matrix

TG ↓ / WACC →8%10%12%
2%$148$109$85
3%$173$121$92
4%$211$138$102

Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $175.33.

Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $121 (-20.3%). Not investment advice.

Valuation Context

55.0x
ANET P/E
65.0x
Sector Avg
27.1x
5Y Avg P/E
-15%
vs Sector

Currently trading 97% above its 5-year average P/E of 27.1x.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

Loading chart...
SMA 50 SMA 200

Technical Setup

AI Generated

Arista Networks, Inc. is currently trading at $141.97 within the technology sector. To assess relative value, one must compare this current price level against the surrounding Simple Moving Average envelope to determine if the asset is positioned in a mean-reversion zone or trending away from its historical average. If the stock price hovers near the upper boundary of the moving average band while exhibiting signs of deceleration, it suggests potential downward pressure toward the mean, whereas proximity to the lower limit might indicate upward corrective momentum. The specific distance between $141.97 and these dynamic averages serves as a gauge for volatility compression or expansion relative to recent price action patterns. The positioning of the current price within this statistical framework provides context for future path probabilities without predicting exact outcomes. When prices deviate significantly from their long-term moving average trends, markets often experience a natural pullback toward equilibrium, creating an environment where mean-reversion strategies could theoretically be effective if momentum indicators confirm exhaustion. Conversely, sustained separation from the central trendline may imply that the current valuation reflects strong underlying demand or structural shifts in investor sentiment rather than temporary noise. Observing how $141.97 interacts with these calculated benchmarks offers insight into whether the security is overextended relative to its recent history or consolidating near a fair value estimate derived from past performance data.

RSI (14)
SMA 50
SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

4/9
Piotroski F-Score
Average — mixed operational signals
18.2
Altman Z-Score
Safe Zone — above 3.0 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.
-2.19
Beneish M-Score
Above threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review per Beneish model. Threshold: <-2.22 = below threshold.

Profitability & Value Creation

64.1%
Gross Margin
39.0%
Net Margin
21.6%
ROIC
+28.6%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+23.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.3B
Free Cash Flow

DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition

Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.

39.0%
Net Profit Margin
NI ÷ Revenue
×
0.46x
Asset Turnover
Revenue ÷ Assets
×
1.57x
Equity Multiplier
Assets ÷ Equity
=
28.4%
Return on Equity
✅ ROE driven primarily by strong profit margins — a sign of pricing power.

Balance Sheet Health

0.57x
Debt / Equity
3.05x
Current Ratio
2.32%
FCF Yield
3.9B
EBITDA

Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)

Net Insider Flow
-$27M
Net Selling
0
Buy Transactions
9
Sale Transactions
2026-03-17DUDA KENNETHSold 6/6 qtrsSale$8M
2026-03-17DUDA KENNETHSold 6/6 qtrsGrant$488,400
2026-03-16WASSENAAR YVONNESold 3/6 qtrsSale$187,404
2026-03-02GIANCARLO CHARLES HSold 6/6 qtrsSale$1M
2026-02-25WASSENAAR YVONNESold 3/6 qtrsSale$240,380

Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✓ Beat
Est: $0.59
Act: $0.65
+10.0%
Q3
✓ Beat
Est: $0.65
Act: $0.73
+12.4%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $0.71
Act: $0.75
+5.0%
Q1
✓ Beat
Est: $0.76
Act: $0.82
+8.2%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Risk Profile

45.9%
Annual Volatility
1.52
Sharpe (1Y)
1.03
Sharpe (3Y)
-50.4%
Max Drawdown (3Y)
-50.4%
Max Drawdown (5Y)

Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure

Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.

1.62
Market β
Mkt-RF
-0.178
Size (SMB)
Large-cap tilt
-0.746
Value (HML)
Growth tilt
-0.104
Profit (RMW)
Weak
-0.321
Invest (CMA)
Aggressive
Alpha (annual): +24.39%
R²: 34.8%of variance explained by 5 factors

Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.

Fundamentals

35.8
Forward P/E
1.98
PEG Ratio
14.89
Price/Book
9M
Avg Volume
$179.80
52W High
$85.58
52W Low
95%
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$19.9B
Tracked Passive Exposure
8
ETFs Holding ANET
0.31%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$6.3T
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like IYZ or FDN, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ANET shares regardless of Arista Networks, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $19.9B of passive capital is structurally linked to ANET through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in Arista Networks, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

ANET Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
ANETEpicenterVTIETFVOOETFIVVETFCSCOLow RiskNVDALow RiskAAPLLow RiskMULow RiskVZHigh Risk
ANET Price Drop (%)0

If Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with ANET. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 31 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

ANET Ownership Dynamics

Passive funds hold 1 in every 9 ANET shares, reducing daily market volatility.

Ticker
ANET
Total Shares
1.3B
ETF Lock-Up
10.5%
Display Mode
Total Float Impact
10.5%Locked Float

Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 5.2% of the IYZ (IYZ) and 5.2% of the FDN (FDN). Across 29 tracked ETFs, approximately 133M shares (10.5% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.

Float lock-up computed from 29 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

ANET Institutional Volume Profile

252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.

TICKER
ANET
PRICE
$175.33
FLOOR (POC)
$139.75
STRENGTH
High
$88$93$97$102$107$111$116$121$1268%$13011%$13513%$140POC 14%$14413%$1497%$154$159$163$168$173$177$175.33
Focus Zone
Point of Control (POC) Support (below price) Resistance (above price) Current Price

The highest-volume price zone for Arista Networks, Inc. over the past year sits near $139.75 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $175.33 trades 25.5% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.

Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.

ANET Capital Efficiency

How efficiently does Arista Networks, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.

Free Cash Flow
$4.3B
EBITDA
$3.9B
FCF Conversion
108%
Reinvestment Rate
-8%
108% of EBITDA → Free Cash
0% (cash burn)25% (low)50% (efficient)100% (pure cash)

Arista Networks, Inc. converts 108% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag.

Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-05-14162,476$140.69$22.9M
2026-05-042$172.70$345.4
2026-04-271,300$176.91$229,983
2026-04-232,178$177.73$387,095.94
2026-04-212,722$166.85$454,165.7
2026-04-201,800$164.23$295,614
2026-04-17312$161.01$50,235.12
2026-04-159$154.37$1,389.33
2026-04-138,248$147.35$1.2M
2026-04-101,287$146.05$187,966.35
2026-04-061,809$126.68$229,164.12
2026-03-2611,794$135.01$1.6M
2026-03-25103$130.80$13,472.4
2026-02-1925,077$139.54$3.5M
2026-02-17100$141.59$14,159
2026-02-124$140.66$562.64
2026-02-111,943$143.45$278,723.35
2026-02-09632$137.49$86,893.68
2026-02-0211,653$141.74$1.7M
2026-01-30131$148.15$19,407.65
2026-01-28543$146.69$79,652.67
2026-01-26100$136.34$13,634
2026-01-0840$130.08$5,203.2
2025-12-31466$132.44$61,717.04
2025-12-304,513$134.15$605,418.95
2025-12-2219,699$131.12$2.6M
2025-12-19849$124.62$105,802.38
2025-12-159,235$124.76$1.2M
2025-12-128,351$134.39$1.1M
2025-12-0144$130.68$5,749.92

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

SEC Comment Letters

SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.

Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.

Price Correlations

Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.

Peer252-Day (1Y)126-Day (6M)Direction
WTGXXNaNNaN
APH0.5140.569Moderate
AVGO0.5060.513Moderate
CRDO0.5030.473Moderate
KYG2545710550.5030.473Moderate
SHOP0.4980.397Moderate
NVDA0.4770.522Moderate
EXTR0.4770.304Moderate
VRT0.4740.432Moderate
ETN0.4650.435Moderate

Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.

Compare ANET to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.