Ciena Corporation (CIEN)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicCIEN trades at 369.6x earnings — a 468% premium to its sector average of 65.0x — without a dominant ROIC-WACC spread. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 14.1 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $142 implies 70% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics present a stark divergence between high-quality balance sheet characteristics and deteriorating capital efficiency. While the Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and Altman Z-Score of 11.5 suggest strong financial stability and low distress risk, the Beneish M-Score of -2.90 indicates minimal earnings manipulation concerns. However, these strengths are undermined by a negative ROIC-WACC spread of -7.0%, signaling that capital generation is currently destroying value relative to the cost of equity. This inefficiency drives an ROE of only 4.5%, achieved through low net margins (2.6%) despite robust asset turnover and leverage; notably, profitability factors show weakness while valuation metrics reflect a pronounced growth tilt.
Valuation multiples are significantly detached from intrinsic value models, with the current P/E ratio at 285.2x vastly exceeding historical norms and sector averages implied by such extreme compression in fair value estimates. The DCF analysis suggests a fair value of $135, implying a substantial downside gap relative to market pricing if future cash flows fail to meet aggressive assumptions inherent in the model's inputs. Although the 10-year implied FCF growth rate stands at 29.8%, this forward-looking metric appears inconsistent with the current multiple and weak net margins, suggesting the market is pricing in hyper-growth that may not materialize given the negative spread on capital investments.
Risk adjustments further complicate the investment thesis through factor tilts and insider behavior. The stock exhibits a strong growth tilt (HML: -0.530) but suffers from negative exposure to profitability factors (RMW: -0.362), indicating vulnerability if margins compress further. Compounding these fundamental headwinds, significant net insider selling totaling over $40 million within the last 90 days contrasts sharply with the reported Fama-French alpha of 52.76%, creating a disconnect between short-term ownership sentiment and recent performance attribution. These data points collectively highlight an asset where aggressive growth expectations are not yet supported by capital efficiency or insider confidence.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 19% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8.9% | 10.9% | 12.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $171 | $129 | $102 |
| 3% | $196 | $142 | $110 |
| 4% | $230 | $159 | $120 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $627.00.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $142 (-70.4%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 389% above its 5-year average P/E of 63.8x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current technical configuration for Ciena Corporation presents a complex landscape regarding institutional positioning, characterized by the stock trading at $524.53 within the technology sector. The presence of significant price levels suggests that larger market participants may be accumulating or defending positions near these zones, as such movements often correlate with shifts in supply and demand dynamics among sophisticated traders. Volume trends accompanying this price action could indicate whether institutional flow is supportive of the current valuation or if there are divergences hinting at potential distribution or accumulation phases that are not yet fully reflected in the headline numbers. SMA crossovers, when they occur amidst such elevated pricing, frequently serve as lagging confirmations of trend changes rather than leading indicators of immediate direction. If institutional players were aggressively repositioning their portfolios recently, one might expect to see sustained volume spikes coinciding with these moving average interactions, signaling a consensus on new price levels. Conversely, the absence of corresponding volume surges alongside technical shifts could imply that large entities are waiting for clearer catalysts before committing significant capital, resulting in a period of consolidation where retail sentiment may diverge from underlying institutional intent. Ultimately, the interplay between these technical metrics and the current market price offers only probabilistic insights into how major investors might be structured around this asset. The data reflects historical participation patterns rather than future guarantees, meaning that while certain configurations often precede directional moves in similar equities, they do not dictate specific outcomes for any given security. Market participants must weigh
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IYZ or XTL, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CIEN shares regardless of Ciena Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $9.2B of passive capital is structurally linked to CIEN through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Ciena Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Ciena Corporation (CIEN) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with CIEN. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 25 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CIEN Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 CIEN shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Ciena Corporation (CIEN) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 5.4% of the IYZ (IYZ) and 4.8% of the XTL (XTL). Across 20 tracked ETFs, approximately 18M shares (12.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest CIEN Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 20 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CIEN Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Ciena Corporation over the past year sits near $84.74 (21% of 252-day volume). The current price of $627.00 trades 639.9% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (21% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CIEN Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Ciena Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Ciena Corporation converts 171% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-6.7%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 200 | $548.11 | $109,622 |
| 2026-05-05 | 167 | $538.51 | $89,931.17 |
| 2026-05-04 | 779 | $535.29 | $416,990.91 |
| 2026-04-27 | 200 | $520.80 | $104,160 |
| 2026-04-23 | 14,048 | $498.97 | $7.0M |
| 2026-04-20 | 19,237 | $507.43 | $9.8M |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $467.19 | $1,401.57 |
| 2026-04-14 | 16,907 | $479.90 | $8.1M |
| 2026-04-13 | 778 | $496.02 | $385,903.56 |
| 2026-04-06 | 1,895 | $447.76 | $848,505.2 |
| 2026-03-26 | 323 | $437.70 | $141,377.1 |
| 2026-03-25 | 14 | $429.38 | $6,011.32 |
| 2026-03-24 | 2,306 | $407.90 | $940,617.4 |
| 2026-03-23 | 2,906 | $383.89 | $1.1M |
| 2026-03-17 | 19,560 | $363.88 | $7.1M |
| 2026-03-16 | 395 | $337.38 | $133,265.1 |
| 2026-02-23 | 3,063 | $334.95 | $1.0M |
| 2026-02-17 | 1,627 | $303.92 | $494,477.84 |
| 2026-02-13 | 40 | $292.96 | $11,718.4 |
| 2026-02-09 | 367 | $271.32 | $99,574.44 |
| 2026-01-23 | 1,750 | $230.03 | $402,552.5 |
| 2026-01-22 | 1,750 | $231.89 | $405,807.5 |
| 2026-01-21 | 1,750 | $241.21 | $422,117.5 |
| 2026-01-20 | 152 | $243.42 | $36,999.84 |
| 2026-01-15 | 35,349 | $238.38 | $8.4M |
| 2026-01-13 | 44,269 | $234.26 | $10.4M |
| 2025-12-30 | 658 | $239.00 | $157,262 |
| 2025-12-22 | 2,211 | $230.34 | $509,281.74 |
| 2025-12-11 | 4,393 | $221.85 | $974,587.05 |
| 2025-12-10 | 189 | $214.35 | $40,512.15 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| COHR | 0.689 | 0.739 | Moderate |
| FN | 0.656 | 0.696 | Moderate |
| LITE | 0.656 | 0.709 | Moderate |
| GLW | 0.618 | 0.717 | Moderate |
| PWR | 0.577 | 0.668 | Moderate |
| SNDK | 0.563 | 0.590 | Moderate |
| FIX | 0.559 | 0.636 | Moderate |
| LRCX | 0.549 | 0.636 | Moderate |
| AAOI | 0.528 | 0.571 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CIEN to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.