Fabrinet (FN)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFN trades at 56.2x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 65.0x. Below-average fundamentals indicated by Piotroski score of 2/9. DCF fair value of $192 implies 72% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedFabrinet demonstrates a robust fundamental profile characterized by an ROIC of 13.9% and a DuPont-decomposed ROE of 16.8%, driven primarily by high asset turnover rather than leverage or margin expansion alone. While the Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 signals deteriorating financial health, this weakness is starkly contrasted by an Altman Z-Score of 18.8 and a Beneish M-Score of -2.25, which collectively indicate low distress risk and minimal earnings manipulation concerns. The company sustains strong profitability with net margins at 9.7% amid double-digit revenue growth, suggesting that current valuation multiples may be pricing in sustained operational efficiency despite the mixed quality signals from traditional scorecards.
Valuation metrics present a significant divergence between market sentiment and intrinsic value models. Trading at a forward P/E of 53.5x, which sits below the sector average of 57.8x, the stock appears relatively cheap on an earnings basis relative to peers; however, this premium is not supported by discounted cash flow analysis, which implies a fair value significantly lower than current levels and suggests the market expects sustained free cash flow growth averaging over 31% annually for the next decade. The pricing structure reflects a pure-growth bias rather than value characteristics, as evidenced by the negative HML factor of -0.997, indicating that investors are willing to accept higher volatility in exchange for exposure to rapid expansion and robust profitability factors.
Risk assessment reveals conflicting data points regarding future trajectory and insider confidence. The portfolio exhibits substantial Fama-French alpha generation at 40.53% annually, highlighting outperformance relative to standard risk factors, yet this momentum is tempered by notable net insider selling totaling over $1.1 million in the last ninety days. This divergence between strong quantitative factor performance and active shareholder reduction creates a complex risk-reward profile where technical strength coexists with potential internal skepticism regarding near-term execution or capital allocation priorities.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 19% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $233 | $173 | $137 |
| 3% | $272 | $192 | $148 |
| 4% | $331 | $218 | $162 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $701.11.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $192 (-72.2%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 104% above its 5-year average P/E of 31.0x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedFabrinet's current price of $677.75 presents a technical snapshot that requires careful examination relative to its moving averages and momentum indicators, though specific average values are not provided in the immediate data set for direct comparison. In the absence of explicit moving average levels, the primary focus shifts to interpreting general market behavior within the technology sector where high volatility is common. Without confirmed positioning above or below key trend lines, one cannot definitively assert whether the asset is currently trading in an established uptrend or a corrective phase based solely on this isolated price point. Regarding short-term momentum, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains undefined without its calculated value, preventing a clear determination of overbought or oversold conditions. If the RSI were to indicate levels above 70, it might suggest exhausted upward pressure and potential consolidation, whereas readings below 30 could signal selling fatigue. However, with these specific metrics missing from the provided dataset, any assertion regarding immediate momentum strength remains speculative rather than factual. The current price level of $677.75 serves as a static reference point against which traders typically measure trend adherence and volatility expectations. While the technology sector often exhibits rapid shifts in valuation driven by broader macroeconomic factors or earnings surprises, this single data point does not reveal the rate of change necessary to confirm directional bias. Market participants must await further confirmation from subsequent price action and complete technical indicators before forming a cohesive view on whether the asset is sustaining its recent trajectory
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IWO or MDYG, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell FN shares regardless of Fabrinet's individual fundamentals. We estimate $3.6B of passive capital is structurally linked to FN through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Fabrinet to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Fabrinet (FN) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies FLEX LTD (FLEX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with FN. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 15 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
FN Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 9 FN shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Fabrinet (FN) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.5% of the IWO (IWO) and 1.4% of the MDYG (MDYG). Across 12 tracked ETFs, approximately 4M shares (10.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest FN Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 12 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
FN Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Fabrinet over the past year sits near $450.26 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $701.11 trades 55.7% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
FN Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Fabrinet convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Fabrinet converts 51% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 216 | $649.53 | $140,298.48 |
| 2026-05-05 | 10,217 | $717.80 | $7.3M |
| 2026-04-29 | 146 | $637.74 | $93,110.04 |
| 2026-04-21 | 111 | $700.01 | $77,701.11 |
| 2026-04-20 | 2,643 | $689.89 | $1.8M |
| 2026-03-30 | 58 | $551.97 | $32,014.26 |
| 2026-03-27 | 5 | $549.70 | $2,748.5 |
| 2026-03-23 | 6 | $506.27 | $3,037.62 |
| 2026-03-20 | 909 | $540.75 | $491,541.75 |
| 2026-03-18 | 385 | $500.02 | $192,507.7 |
| 2026-03-11 | 90 | $543.02 | $48,871.8 |
| 2026-02-27 | 211 | $562.44 | $118,674.84 |
| 2026-02-23 | 1,492 | $546.13 | $814,825.96 |
| 2026-02-19 | 6,279 | $505.78 | $3.2M |
| 2026-02-17 | 289 | $495.55 | $143,213.95 |
| 2026-02-13 | 16 | $462.05 | $7,392.8 |
| 2026-02-09 | 955 | $503.99 | $481,310.45 |
| 2026-02-06 | 390 | $442.70 | $172,653 |
| 2026-02-05 | 346 | $423.03 | $146,368.38 |
| 2026-02-04 | 5 | $448.53 | $2,242.65 |
| 2026-02-03 | 26 | $499.61 | $12,989.86 |
| 2026-01-20 | 3,135 | $494.45 | $1.6M |
| 2026-01-12 | 57 | $447.23 | $25,492.11 |
| 2026-01-06 | 98 | $456.90 | $44,776.2 |
| 2026-01-05 | 23 | $479.42 | $11,026.66 |
| 2025-12-23 | 206 | $483.55 | $99,611.3 |
| 2025-12-22 | 6,222 | $475.47 | $3.0M |
| 2025-12-15 | 1,228 | $470.89 | $578,252.92 |
| 2025-12-11 | 1,572 | $516.63 | $812,142.36 |
| 2025-12-09 | 1,027 | $491.03 | $504,287.81 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| COHR | 0.694 | 0.700 | Moderate |
| GLW | 0.670 | 0.741 | Moderate |
| CIEN | 0.656 | 0.696 | Moderate |
| LITE | 0.642 | 0.666 | Moderate |
| LRCX | 0.605 | 0.684 | Moderate |
| PWR | 0.597 | 0.659 | Moderate |
| VRT | 0.595 | 0.587 | Moderate |
| TSM | 0.594 | 0.608 | Moderate |
| AVGO | 0.590 | 0.609 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare FN to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.