Corning Incorporated (GLW)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicGLW trades at 87.1x earnings — a 34% premium to its sector average of 65.0x — without a dominant ROIC-WACC spread. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 6.4 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $17 implies 90% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics reveal a tension between robust revenue expansion and capital inefficiency, characterized by an ROIC of 7.4% that trails the cost of equity at 10.7%, resulting in a negative spread of -3.3%. This value-destructive dynamic persists despite a DuPont-decomposed ROE of 13.0%, which is driven primarily by high financial leverage (Equity Multiplier of 2.52x) rather than operational efficiency or margin expansion, as evidenced by the weak profitability factor score of -0.402. While qualitative risk indicators remain reassuring with a strong Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, a healthy Altman Z-Score of 5.7 indicating low bankruptcy risk, and a Beneish M-Score of -2.35 suggesting minimal earnings manipulation, the capital allocation strategy appears misaligned with shareholder value creation given the current growth trajectory.
Valuation metrics present a significant disconnect between historical performance expectations and intrinsic worth calculations. The stock trades at an elevated 80.8x forward P/E, implying sustained high-growth assumptions that starkly contrast with the DCF-derived fair value of $18, which indicates -86.8% downside from current levels based on a modeled ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 39.8%. Although the Fama-French Alpha stands anomalously high at an annualized 37.12%, potentially reflecting momentum-driven pricing rather than fundamental alpha generation, this premium appears unjustified when weighed against the negative ROIC-WACC spread and the implied requirement for nearly 40% growth to justify current multiples.
Insider activity further complicates the risk-reward profile, with $15.7 million in net selling over the last ninety days signaling a lack of confidence from those closest to the business operations. This insider outflow coincides with structural weaknesses highlighted by the negative profitability factor and massive valuation gap, suggesting that while creditworthiness remains intact due to strong liquidity metrics, the equity risk premium may be priced excessively high relative to the company's ability to generate returns above its cost of capital in a leveraged environment.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 19% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9% | 11% | 13% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $21 | $15 | $12 |
| 3% | $25 | $17 | $13 |
| 4% | $30 | $20 | $14 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $200.40.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $17 (-90.1%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 29% above its 5-year average P/E of 72.6x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCorning Incorporated is currently trading at $180.69, a position that requires contextual analysis against its moving averages to determine the prevailing trend direction. Without specific data points for short-term or long-term moving averages, it remains unclear whether the current price level represents a bullish continuation above these benchmarks or a potential correction below them. The technical setup hinges on this relationship; if the stock holds firmly above key average lines, it would suggest sustained upward momentum, whereas trading beneath them could indicate weakening trend strength and possible downward pressure. Regarding short-term momentum indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is not provided in the current dataset, preventing a definitive assessment of whether the asset is approaching overbought or oversold territory. In the absence of this metric, observers cannot determine if recent price movements are driven by aggressive buying that might lead to a pullback, or by selling exhaustion that could fuel further declines. The sector classification as Technology adds macroeconomic context, yet specific technical signals regarding immediate directional bias remain incomplete without additional data points on average alignments and oscillator readings. Ultimately, the current snapshot offers a single price point against which historical averages must be compared to gauge trend health. Investors examining this setup should look for confirmation of whether $180.69 acts as support relative to moving averages while monitoring future RSI developments to assess momentum shifts. The technical picture is currently ambiguous regarding immediate direction, relying on the integration of missing average data and oscillator values to form a complete view of
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | $0.2800 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-27 | $0.2800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-14 | $0.2800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-29 | $0.2800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-30 | $0.2800 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-28 | $0.2800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-15 | $0.2800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-30 | $0.2800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-31 | $0.2800 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-28 | $0.2800 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-16 | $0.2800 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-30 | $0.2800 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IWS or XLK, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell GLW shares regardless of Corning Incorporated's individual fundamentals. We estimate $16.0B of passive capital is structurally linked to GLW through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Corning Incorporated to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Corning Incorporated (GLW) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NVIDIA CORP (NVDA) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with GLW. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 33 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
GLW Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 8 GLW shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Corning Incorporated (GLW) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.2% of the IWS (IWS) and 1.0% of the State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK). Across 32 tracked ETFs, approximately 110M shares (12.7% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest GLW Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 32 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
GLW Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Corning Incorporated over the past year sits near $85.35 (17% of 252-day volume). The current price of $200.40 trades 134.8% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (17% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
GLW Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Corning Incorporated convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Corning Incorporated converts 38% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 62% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-3.5%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 101 | $181.57 | $18,338.57 |
| 2026-05-04 | 481 | $158.26 | $76,123.06 |
| 2026-04-27 | 95 | $175.89 | $16,709.55 |
| 2026-04-21 | 1,000 | $165.38 | $165,380 |
| 2026-04-20 | 3,787 | $164.38 | $622,507.06 |
| 2026-04-17 | 1,000 | $166.08 | $166,080 |
| 2026-04-15 | 6 | $172.82 | $1,036.92 |
| 2026-04-13 | 23 | $171.24 | $3,938.52 |
| 2026-04-10 | 980 | $169.80 | $166,404 |
| 2026-04-09 | 980 | $165.10 | $161,798 |
| 2026-04-08 | 1 | $148.52 | $148.52 |
| 2026-04-07 | 6 | $146.50 | $879 |
| 2026-04-06 | 100 | $147.92 | $14,792 |
| 2026-03-30 | 100 | $136.81 | $13,681 |
| 2026-03-25 | 8,667 | $142.01 | $1.2M |
| 2026-03-23 | 128,908 | $124.58 | $16.1M |
| 2026-03-13 | 9,360 | $129.77 | $1.2M |
| 2026-03-09 | 66,241 | $123.29 | $8.2M |
| 2026-03-04 | 6,948 | $147.57 | $1.0M |
| 2026-03-03 | 10,369 | $157.86 | $1.6M |
| 2026-03-02 | 3,301 | $150.38 | $496,404.38 |
| 2026-02-27 | 580 | $150.30 | $87,174 |
| 2026-02-23 | 900 | $139.51 | $125,559 |
| 2026-02-19 | 36 | $132.01 | $4,752.36 |
| 2026-02-17 | 8,000 | $133.46 | $1.1M |
| 2026-02-13 | 25,565 | $131.50 | $3.4M |
| 2026-02-12 | 26,328 | $132.90 | $3.5M |
| 2026-02-06 | 1,300 | $112.79 | $146,627 |
| 2026-02-03 | 3,079 | $110.36 | $339,798.44 |
| 2026-02-02 | 10,107 | $103.25 | $1.0M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| FN | 0.670 | 0.741 | Moderate |
| COHR | 0.654 | 0.741 | Moderate |
| CIEN | 0.618 | 0.717 | Moderate |
| LITE | 0.617 | 0.648 | Moderate |
| LRCX | 0.567 | 0.646 | Moderate |
| CAT | 0.551 | 0.601 | Moderate |
| TSM | 0.550 | 0.628 | Moderate |
| TER | 0.546 | 0.652 | Moderate |
| ETN | 0.536 | 0.613 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare GLW to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.