Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 42.4x earnings — a 35% discount to the sector average of 65.0x — AMAT is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 16.2. DCF fair value of $38 implies 90% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedApplied Materials exhibits robust capital efficiency, evidenced by a substantial ROIC-WACC spread of 12.1%, which indicates strong value creation potential relative to its cost of capital. The DuPont decomposition reveals that this return on equity of 34.3% is primarily driven by exceptional net margins at 24.7%, supported by moderate asset turnover and leverage, while the Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 suggests solid fundamental stability despite recent growth deceleration to just 4.4%. Financial integrity appears high given an Altman Z-Score of 14.3 and a negative Beneish M-Score of -2.57, signaling low earnings manipulation risk alongside the high profitability factor metric, though the latter's negative value suggests specific sector headwinds may be pressuring returns relative to peers.
Valuation metrics present a complex picture where the current P/E ratio of 35.7x trades at a discount to the sector average of 42.2x, yet remains elevated in absolute terms. A DCF analysis implies significant downside pressure with a fair value estimate that is 88.9% below current levels, suggesting the market may be pricing in aggressive future expectations inconsistent with recent single-digit revenue growth or high implied free cash flow expansion rates of 42.6%. This divergence highlights a potential mispricing where historical momentum outweighs intrinsic valuation anchors derived from discounted cash flows.
Risk factors further complicate the investment thesis; while Fama-French alpha is exceptionally strong at 69.38% annually, indicating superior risk-adjusted returns over time, recent insider activity shows net selling of approximately $4.5 million within the last ninety days. Additionally, negative loadings on both the Value and Profitability factors suggest the stock carries growth-specific risks that may not be fully captured by traditional profitability screens, creating a scenario where strong historical alpha could face headwinds from deteriorating fundamental drivers or insider confidence shifts.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 4% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 12.6% | 14.6% | 16.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $43 | $36 | $30 |
| 3% | $46 | $38 | $32 |
| 4% | $50 | $40 | $34 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $490.05.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=14.6%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $38 (-90.5%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 47% below its 5-year average P/E of 77.9x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedApplied Materials, Inc. is currently trading at $432.16 within the technology sector, presenting a snapshot where price action and volume dynamics may reflect shifting institutional sentiment. While specific moving average crossover data or precise volume spikes are not provided in this isolated dataset, the absence of these key metrics prevents a definitive assessment of whether larger market participants are aggressively accumulating or distributing shares at current levels. In broader technical contexts, such crossovers often serve as confirmation points for trend changes driven by significant capital flows; without them visible here, one can only observe that the stock sits in a specific price zone where future volume trends will be critical to determining if institutional positioning is strengthening bullish momentum or signaling a potential reversal. The current valuation relative to historical technical structures remains undefined without additional moving average data, leaving ambiguity regarding whether the $432.16 level represents a support floor attracting buy orders from major funds or resistance capping further upside for aggressive capital. Institutional behavior typically leaves footprints in volume profiles and trendline interactions; consequently, any interpretation of how smart money is positioned must await more granular analysis of these specific indicators to distinguish between passive holding patterns and active strategy shifts. Observers should monitor subsequent trading sessions where the interplay between price movement and transaction volume may reveal clearer signals about whether large entities are viewing this asset as a core holding or an opportunity for exit, rather than drawing immediate conclusions from limited data points alone.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-21 | $0.5300 | +15.2% |
| 2026-02-19 | $0.4600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-20 | $0.4600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-21 | $0.4600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-22 | $0.4600 | +15.0% |
| 2025-02-20 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-21 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-22 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-22 | $0.4000 | +25.0% |
| 2024-02-21 | $0.3200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-22 | $0.3200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-23 | $0.3200 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
10-K Risk Factor Expansion
Word count of Item 1A (Risk Factors) across annual filings. Rising counts often signal new regulatory, competitive, or operational risks.
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like SOXX or SMH, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell AMAT shares regardless of Applied Materials, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $42.3B of passive capital is structurally linked to AMAT through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Applied Materials, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with AMAT. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 37 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
AMAT Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 AMAT shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 5.9% of the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) and 4.4% of the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH). Across 35 tracked ETFs, approximately 125M shares (15.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest AMAT Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 35 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
AMAT Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Applied Materials, Inc. over the past year sits near $162.41 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $490.05 trades 201.7% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
AMAT Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Applied Materials, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Applied Materials, Inc. converts 57% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 12.0% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 1 | $443.62 | $443.62 |
| 2026-05-06 | 8 | $410.82 | $3,286.56 |
| 2026-04-29 | 1 | $381.11 | $381.11 |
| 2026-04-24 | 6,514 | $403.91 | $2.6M |
| 2026-04-22 | 103 | $394.33 | $40,615.99 |
| 2026-04-21 | 1 | $391.62 | $391.62 |
| 2026-04-20 | 826 | $396.94 | $327,872.44 |
| 2026-04-15 | 19 | $395.64 | $7,517.16 |
| 2026-04-09 | 420 | $385.72 | $162,002.4 |
| 2026-04-08 | 744 | $354.31 | $263,606.64 |
| 2026-04-07 | 701 | $352.62 | $247,186.62 |
| 2026-03-30 | 2,694 | $337.17 | $908,335.98 |
| 2026-03-27 | 2,662 | $338.55 | $901,220.1 |
| 2026-03-25 | 82 | $373.99 | $30,667.18 |
| 2026-03-23 | 15,487 | $357.06 | $5.5M |
| 2026-03-17 | 2 | $346.18 | $692.36 |
| 2026-03-16 | 400 | $341.53 | $136,612 |
| 2026-03-10 | 4,514 | $338.94 | $1.5M |
| 2026-03-09 | 120,675 | $324.74 | $39.2M |
| 2026-03-03 | 11 | $372.18 | $4,093.98 |
| 2026-03-02 | 200 | $372.30 | $74,460 |
| 2026-02-26 | 2,489 | $394.95 | $983,030.55 |
| 2026-02-24 | 229 | $373.55 | $85,542.95 |
| 2026-02-23 | 200 | $375.38 | $75,076 |
| 2026-02-19 | 1,746 | $369.30 | $644,797.8 |
| 2026-02-17 | 1,200 | $354.91 | $425,892 |
| 2026-02-13 | 500 | $328.39 | $164,195 |
| 2026-02-12 | 806 | $339.88 | $273,943.28 |
| 2026-02-09 | 1 | $322.51 | $322.51 |
| 2026-02-04 | 8 | $318.67 | $2,549.36 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| LRCX | 0.868 | 0.880 | High co-movement |
| KLAC | 0.855 | 0.848 | High co-movement |
| ASML | 0.783 | 0.829 | High co-movement |
| USN070592100 | 0.783 | 0.829 | High co-movement |
| MPWR | 0.701 | 0.753 | High co-movement |
| TSM | 0.682 | 0.750 | Moderate |
| TER | 0.644 | 0.710 | Moderate |
| MU | 0.644 | 0.663 | Moderate |
| ADI | 0.618 | 0.641 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare AMAT to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.