ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicASML trades at 53.8x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 65.0x. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 8/9, Altman Z 13.3 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $687 implies 54% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe company demonstrates exceptional fundamental quality, characterized by a robust ROIC-WACC spread of +21.1%, indicating significant value creation above the cost of capital. This strength is driven primarily by superior operational efficiency rather than leverage; the DuPont decomposition reveals that high net margins (29.4%) and moderate asset turnover (0.65x) generate an impressive 49.0% ROE, supported only modestly by equity multipliers at 2.58x. Financial integrity is further corroborated by a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, signaling strong financial position improvements, while an Altman Z-Score of 12.6 and Beneish M-Score of -2.84 suggest low bankruptcy risk and minimal earnings manipulation concerns respectively.
Despite these operational strengths, current valuation metrics present a divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 46.1x, which appears elevated relative to its implied fundamentals given the DCF fair value estimate of $667 suggests a -49.5% downside from current levels. This disparity implies the market is aggressively pricing in sustained free cash flow growth averaging 25.8% annually over the next decade, a trajectory that may be difficult to maintain indefinitely or could already reflect an optimistic consensus.
Risk-adjusted return analysis highlights a distinct factor profile typical of high-growth equities. The stock exhibits a Fama-French alpha of 8.67%, outperforming its benchmark after fees, though this is partially offset by a negative Value Factor (HML) score of -0.706, confirming a pronounced growth tilt that historically underperforms during value-oriented market regimes. Conversely, the positive Profitability Factor (RMW) score of 0.217 underscores the durability of its earnings power. Investors must weigh whether current prices adequately compensate for the potential mean reversion in growth assumptions against the company's proven ability to generate superior risk-adjusted returns through profitability drivers.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 16% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 11.2% | 13.2% | 15.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $792 | $641 | $537 |
| 3% | $866 | $687 | $567 |
| 4% | $961 | $743 | $603 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $1705.37.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=13.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $687 (-54.2%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 43% above its 5-year average P/E of 35.9x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedASML Holding N.V. is currently trading at $1501.81, presenting a scenario where the price action relative to its moving averages becomes the primary lens for assessing trend direction without specific data points confirming whether it sits above or below these benchmarks. In the absence of explicit average values in the provided dataset, any definitive statement regarding long-term bullishness or short-term weakness remains speculative based solely on this snapshot. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a critical tool for gauging momentum, yet without its current reading, one cannot determine if the asset is experiencing overbought conditions that might precede a pullback or oversold states suggesting potential reversal strength. The technical picture relies heavily on interpreting how the $1501.81 price level interacts with historical volatility and trend lines to define market sentiment. If the price were hypothetically positioned above key moving averages, it would typically signal sustained upward momentum, whereas a position below them might indicate bearish pressure or a corrective phase. Similarly, an RSI reading near extreme highs could imply exhausted buying power, while values in lower ranges often reflect diminished selling intensity. However, synthesizing these indicators requires the actual numerical inputs for both the moving averages and the oscillator to move beyond theoretical frameworks into concrete market analysis. Ultimately, the current data point offers a static view of value rather than dynamic momentum confirmation. Investors observing this setup must weigh the $1501.81 figure against recent price history and calculated
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | $3.1770 | +68.7% |
| 2026-02-10 | $1.8830 | +1.0% |
| 2025-10-29 | $1.8640 | +0.9% |
| 2025-07-29 | $1.8470 | -11.7% |
| 2025-04-28 | $2.0910 | +33.2% |
| 2025-02-11 | $1.5700 | -4.3% |
| 2024-10-29 | $1.6410 | -0.1% |
| 2024-07-29 | $1.6430 | -12.3% |
| 2024-04-26 | $1.8730 | +20.4% |
| 2024-02-05 | $1.5560 | +1.7% |
| 2023-11-01 | $1.5300 | -4.0% |
| 2023-08-01 | $1.5930 | -14.3% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VGK or XNTK, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ASML shares regardless of ASML Holding N.V.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $17.0B of passive capital is structurally linked to ASML through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in ASML Holding N.V. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC (MU) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with ASML. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 10 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ASML Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 32 ASML shares, reducing daily market volatility.
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.6% of the VGK (VGK) and 3.4% of the XNTK (XNTK). Across 9 tracked ETFs, approximately 12M shares (3.2% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest ASML Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 9 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ASML Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for ASML Holding N.V. over the past year sits near $758.39 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $1705.37 trades 124.9% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
ASML Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does ASML Holding N.V. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
ASML Holding N.V. converts 88% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 21.4% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 2,707 | $1581.58 | $4.3M |
| 2026-05-11 | 751 | $1592.02 | $1.2M |
| 2026-05-07 | 1,103 | $1544.74 | $1.7M |
| 2026-05-06 | 1,723 | $1442.92 | $2.5M |
| 2026-05-04 | 86 | $1427.02 | $122,723.72 |
| 2026-05-01 | 97 | $1438.99 | $139,582.03 |
| 2026-04-29 | 3 | $1384.56 | $4,153.68 |
| 2026-04-27 | 200 | $1457.70 | $291,540 |
| 2026-04-23 | 7 | $1443.66 | $10,105.62 |
| 2026-04-21 | 960 | $1476.50 | $1.4M |
| 2026-04-16 | 58 | $1481.77 | $85,942.66 |
| 2026-04-13 | 1,471 | $1478.28 | $2.2M |
| 2026-04-01 | 16 | $1320.83 | $21,133.28 |
| 2026-03-31 | 300 | $1253.96 | $376,188 |
| 2026-03-30 | 11,690 | $1302.47 | $15.2M |
| 2026-03-27 | 660 | $1329.50 | $877,470 |
| 2026-03-25 | 10,909 | $1399.42 | $15.3M |
| 2026-03-23 | 300 | $1317.25 | $395,175 |
| 2026-03-17 | 776 | $1375.56 | $1.1M |
| 2026-03-06 | 100 | $1368.36 | $136,836 |
| 2026-03-04 | 48 | $1360.94 | $65,325.12 |
| 2026-03-02 | 34 | $1450.56 | $49,319.04 |
| 2026-02-23 | 1,627 | $1469.59 | $2.4M |
| 2026-02-19 | 711 | $1468.72 | $1.0M |
| 2026-02-18 | 40 | $1419.78 | $56,791.2 |
| 2026-02-09 | 73 | $1413.01 | $103,149.73 |
| 2026-02-03 | 9 | $1441.39 | $12,972.51 |
| 2026-02-02 | 199 | $1423.00 | $283,177 |
| 2026-01-26 | 39,777 | $1389.04 | $55.3M |
| 2026-01-21 | 220 | $1326.07 | $291,735.4 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| USN070592100 | 1.000 | 1.000 | High co-movement |
| LRCX | 0.805 | 0.847 | High co-movement |
| AMAT | 0.783 | 0.829 | High co-movement |
| KLAC | 0.774 | 0.795 | High co-movement |
| NL0010273215 | 0.691 | 0.830 | Moderate |
| TSM | 0.688 | 0.754 | Moderate |
| MPWR | 0.647 | 0.697 | Moderate |
| MU | 0.604 | 0.614 | Moderate |
| TER | 0.577 | 0.640 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare ASML to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.