Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 40.1x earnings — a 38% discount to the sector average of 65.0x — CSCO is in the lower valuation range. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 8/9, Altman Z 3.4 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $71 implies 14% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedCisco Systems demonstrates robust fundamental quality, characterized by a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and an Altman Z-Score of 3.2 that collectively signal strong financial health with low distress risk. The equity return profile is primarily margin-driven rather than leverage-dependent; while the Equity Multiplier contributes to a DuPont ROE of 21.7%, this is underpinned by expansive net margins of 18.0% and substantial gross margins near 65%. Despite generating an ROIC-WACC spread of +1.9%, indicating value creation above cost of capital, the company's growth trajectory appears constrained with revenue expanding at only 5.3% year-over-year, suggesting a mature operational phase where efficiency gains are more critical than top-line expansion.
Valuation metrics present a divergence between market pricing and intrinsic models. The current P/E ratio of 28.4x trades significantly below the sector average of 42.2x, yet it implies an aggressive growth expectation relative to its modest revenue run rate. This disconnect is highlighted by a DCF fair value estimate that suggests -9.5% downside from current levels, implying the market may be pricing in higher implied free cash flow growth than the model supports at 8.8% over ten years. Consequently, while the stock appears discounted relative to peers, fundamental valuation models indicate limited immediate upside potential based on projected cash flows and historical performance benchmarks.
Risk-adjusted return profiles reveal a nuanced picture where factor tilts suggest specific investment characteristics rather than broad alpha generation. The Fama-French annualized alpha of 7.88% indicates strong risk-adjusted outperformance, yet this is partially offset by a negative Profitability Factor (RMW) score of -0.051 and a Value Factor tilt of 0.274, suggesting the stock behaves more like a value asset than a high-quality growth compounder in factor models. Furthermore, insider activity over the past ninety days shows net selling totaling $4,760,541, which typically warrants scrutiny regarding management's view on near-term valuation levels or capital allocation priorities when weighed against the otherwise solid balance sheet metrics.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 5% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.5% | 9.5% | 11.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $88 | $63 | $48 |
| 3% | $105 | $71 | $53 |
| 4% | $131 | $82 | $58 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $128.00.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $71 (-14.3%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 9% above its 5-year average P/E of 27.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCisco Systems, Inc. is currently trading at $118.88 within the technology sector. Without specific data regarding Simple Moving Average (SMA) envelopes or historical price bands for this particular timeframe, a precise assessment of whether the current valuation represents an extreme deviation from its mean cannot be definitively calculated here. In general technical analysis frameworks, relative value is often gauged by observing where the spot price sits in relation to these moving averages; prices trading near the upper band may suggest overextension and potential mean-reversion toward the centerline, while those hugging lower bands might indicate oversold conditions preceding a bounce back toward equilibrium. The absence of explicit envelope parameters prevents a quantitative determination of immediate reversal probability for CSCO at this specific price point. Analysts typically monitor these relationships to identify statistical probabilities rather than certainties; if the stock were significantly displaced from its long-term average, market mechanics often drive prices back toward historical norms as volatility contracts or mean reversion strategies are executed by algorithmic traders. Conversely, sustained trading outside standard bands can sometimes signal a trend continuation phase where traditional mean-reversion signals lose efficacy until a defined pivot occurs. Ultimately, the current positioning of $118.88 requires comparison against dynamic moving average lines to fully evaluate its relative standing. Market participants should observe whether price action remains contained within expected statistical limits or if it breaches them, as such deviations often precede corrective movements designed to restore balance between supply and demand dynamics inherent in the technology
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | $0.4200 | +2.4% |
| 2026-01-02 | $0.4100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-03 | $0.4100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-03 | $0.4100 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-03 | $0.4100 | +2.5% |
| 2025-01-03 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-02 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-05 | $0.4000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-03 | $0.4000 | +2.6% |
| 2024-01-03 | $0.3900 | 0.0% |
| 2023-10-03 | $0.3900 | 0.0% |
| 2023-07-05 | $0.3900 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
10-K Risk Factor Expansion
Word count of Item 1A (Risk Factors) across annual filings. Rising counts often signal new regulatory, competitive, or operational risks.
Smart Money Flow
Institutional 13F filings from top hedge funds. Positions updated quarterly from SEC EDGAR.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares Change | % Change | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | -3,091,400 | -52.3% | Decreased |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | +360,625 | +78.0% | Increased |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | +55,400 | +71.3% | Increased |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | +295,504 | +103.4% | Increased |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | +3,109,469 | +283.6% | Increased |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | +440,600 | +1168.7% | Increased |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | +1,383,000 | +30.6% | Increased |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2025-Q4 | -20,800 | -35.6% | Decreased |
| Millennium Management | 2025-Q4 | -494,500 | -31.1% | Decreased |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | -340,400 | -54.4% | Decreased |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2025-Q4 | -1,541,505 | -100.0% | Exited |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2025-Q4 | +43,800 | +129.2% | Increased |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end. Not investment advice.
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like IYZ or FDN, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CSCO shares regardless of Cisco Systems, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $54.5B of passive capital is structurally linked to CSCO through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Cisco Systems, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Verizon Communications Inc (VZ) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with CSCO. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 42 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CSCO Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 CSCO shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 21.1% of the IYZ (IYZ) and 7.1% of the FDN (FDN). Across 39 tracked ETFs, approximately 631M shares (16.0% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest CSCO Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 39 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CSCO Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Cisco Systems, Inc. over the past year sits near $66.63 (24% of 252-day volume). The current price of $128.00 trades 92.1% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (24% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
CSCO Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Cisco Systems, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Cisco Systems, Inc. converts 86% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 2.0% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 9,225 | $101.87 | $939,750.75 |
| 2026-05-12 | 2 | $98.72 | $197.44 |
| 2026-05-11 | 500 | $96.57 | $48,285 |
| 2026-05-08 | 8,856 | $92.16 | $816,168.96 |
| 2026-05-04 | 50 | $91.85 | $4,592.5 |
| 2026-05-01 | 26 | $91.50 | $2,379 |
| 2026-04-30 | 10,147 | $89.57 | $908,866.79 |
| 2026-04-27 | 5 | $89.01 | $445.05 |
| 2026-04-23 | 3 | $89.80 | $269.4 |
| 2026-04-22 | 30 | $89.70 | $2,691 |
| 2026-04-20 | 247,924 | $86.25 | $21.4M |
| 2026-04-17 | 2,676 | $84.50 | $226,122 |
| 2026-04-16 | 6 | $82.36 | $494.16 |
| 2026-04-15 | 30 | $82.61 | $2,478.3 |
| 2026-04-10 | 1,925 | $83.17 | $160,102.25 |
| 2026-04-09 | 2,391 | $83.70 | $200,126.7 |
| 2026-04-07 | 165 | $80.44 | $13,272.6 |
| 2026-04-06 | 100 | $79.02 | $7,902 |
| 2026-03-30 | 419,760 | $79.92 | $33.5M |
| 2026-03-25 | 58,030 | $80.86 | $4.7M |
| 2026-03-24 | 713 | $78.82 | $56,198.66 |
| 2026-03-23 | 1,646,136 | $77.65 | $127.8M |
| 2026-03-19 | 2,407 | $77.60 | $186,783.2 |
| 2026-03-16 | 26,495 | $78.33 | $2.1M |
| 2026-03-06 | 4,528 | $80.01 | $362,285.28 |
| 2026-03-05 | 3,567 | $80.87 | $288,463.29 |
| 2026-03-04 | 916 | $78.96 | $72,327.36 |
| 2026-03-02 | 597 | $79.46 | $47,437.62 |
| 2026-02-23 | 1,700 | $79.20 | $134,640 |
| 2026-02-19 | 66,938 | $78.18 | $5.2M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Institutional Holdings (13F Filings)
Raw SEC 13F-HR filings from institutional investment managers. Shows exact share counts and portfolio values as reported to the SEC.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares | Value ($K) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | 4,205,969 | $326,341,135K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | 2,815,500 | $218,454,645K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | 822,892 | $63,848,190K |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | 581,204 | $45,095,618K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | 478,300 | $37,111,297K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | 133,100 | $10,327,229K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | 5,906,900 | $455,008,507K |
| Millennium Management | 2025-Q4 | 1,096,500 | $84,463,395K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2025-Q4 | 462,267 | $35,608,427K |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | 285,700 | $22,007,471K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2025-Q4 | 77,700 | $5,985,231K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2025-Q4 | 37,700 | $2,904,031K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q3 | 4,523,900 | $309,525,238K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2025-Q3 | 1,786,488 | $122,231,509K |
| Millennium Management | 2025-Q3 | 1,591,000 | $108,856,220K |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. Values reported in thousands. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| EXTR | 0.504 | 0.463 | Moderate |
| BK | 0.492 | 0.467 | Moderate |
| C | 0.481 | 0.467 | Moderate |
| MS | 0.454 | 0.391 | Moderate |
| ANET | 0.412 | 0.365 | Moderate |
| AMAT | 0.408 | 0.358 | Moderate |
| GWW | 0.401 | 0.431 | Moderate |
| ATEN | 0.398 | 0.354 | Moderate |
| TEL | 0.396 | 0.372 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CSCO to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.