EXTR (EXTR)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 1.1. DCF fair value of $18 suggests 4% upside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency for EXTR is severely compromised, as indicated by a negative ROIC-WACC spread of -11.2%, signaling that the firm destroys value relative to its cost of capital despite maintaining robust gross margins at 62.2%. This divergence suggests operational inefficiencies are eroding profitability; specifically, net margins have contracted to -0.7% while revenue growth remains stagnant at just 2.1% year-over-year, preventing the high top-line spread from translating into bottom-line accretion. While the Beneish M-Score of -2.76 points toward low earnings manipulation risk and a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 reflects moderate fundamental strength, an Altman Z-Score of 1.1 places the entity in the "grey zone," implying heightened distress risk that contradicts the superficial stability suggested by the margin structure.
Valuation metrics present a stark disconnect between current market pricing and intrinsic value models derived from cash flow projections. The stock trades at an extraordinary P/E multiple of 299.8x, which is significantly elevated relative to historical norms and sector peers, suggesting the market is pricing in aggressive future expansion that has not yet materialized given the tepid revenue trajectory. Conversely, discounted cash flow analysis anchors fair value at $18 with only a marginal 4.1% upside from current levels, implying that the existing premium fails to account for the deteriorating net margin dynamics and the negative return on invested capital.
The risk/reward profile is skewed heavily toward downside volatility given the tension between high valuation multiples and weak fundamental generation of free cash flow. Although the implied ten-year FCF growth rate stands at 14.9%, this forward-looking metric appears disconnected from current operational realities, creating a potential mean reversion scenario if earnings fail to accelerate materially. Investors must weigh whether the low manipulation risk indicated by the Beneish score provides enough safety margin against the liquidity and solvency concerns flagged by the Altman Z-Score in an environment where capital deployment continues to underperform the cost of equity.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 2% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 12% | 14% | 16% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $21 | $17 | $15 |
| 3% | $23 | $18 | $15 |
| 4% | $25 | $20 | $16 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $29.48.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=14.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $18 (+4.1%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current trading price of $23.54 for EXTR establishes a specific point within its recent valuation range, offering a snapshot of where the asset sits relative to its moving average envelope boundaries. Without precise upper and lower bound data in this isolated view, the absolute positioning cannot be definitively mapped against historical volatility bands, yet the proximity of the price to these statistical limits is often where mean-reversion dynamics become most relevant. If the current level approaches an extreme band boundary, it theoretically suggests a potential compression phase that could precede a pullback toward the central tendency represented by the simple moving average. Conversely, if the price resides comfortably within the mid-section of the envelope, the setup may indicate sustained momentum rather than an imminent reversal. Technical analysis in this context relies heavily on identifying whether deviations from the mean are statistically significant or merely transient noise. The $23.54 figure serves as a critical anchor for assessing these relative values, implying that traders might scrutinize recent volatility patterns to gauge if the asset is overextended. In environments where prices frequently touch envelope extremes before correcting, observing how EXTR behaves near current levels could provide insight into its historical tendency toward mean reversion versus trend continuation. Ultimately, the significance of this price point depends on the width and slope of the surrounding moving average bands, which dictate whether the current valuation represents a statistical outlier or a normalized state within the asset's recent trajectory.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XTL or SLYG, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell EXTR shares regardless of EXTR's individual fundamentals. We estimate $152M of passive capital is structurally linked to EXTR through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on EXTR's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in EXTR to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If EXTR (EXTR) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies VIAVI SOLUTIONS INC (VIAV) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with EXTR. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 9 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
EXTR Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 16 EXTR shares, reducing daily market volatility.
EXTR (EXTR) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.5% of the XTL (XTL) and 0.3% of the SLYG (SLYG). Across 9 tracked ETFs, approximately 8M shares (6.4% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest EXTR Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 9 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
EXTR Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for EXTR over the past year sits near $17.08 (14% of 252-day volume). The current price of $29.48 trades 72.6% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (14% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
EXTR Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does EXTR convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
EXTR converts 323% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-11.2%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 12 | $22.77 | $273.24 |
| 2026-04-30 | 899 | $21.85 | $19,643.15 |
| 2026-04-29 | 49,922 | $17.05 | $851,170.1 |
| 2026-04-14 | 21,537 | $17.64 | $379,912.68 |
| 2026-03-30 | 4 | $15.26 | $61.04 |
| 2026-03-24 | 1,467 | $15.17 | $22,254.39 |
| 2026-03-23 | 39,013 | $14.71 | $573,881.23 |
| 2026-03-19 | 2,007 | $14.93 | $29,964.51 |
| 2026-03-16 | 71 | $14.49 | $1,028.79 |
| 2026-03-03 | 70 | $14.25 | $997.5 |
| 2026-02-10 | 276 | $15.44 | $4,261.44 |
| 2026-02-04 | 2,400 | $14.89 | $35,736 |
| 2026-01-08 | 7,912 | $16.14 | $127,699.68 |
| 2026-01-07 | 8,423 | $16.41 | $138,221.43 |
| 2026-01-05 | 24 | $16.54 | $396.96 |
| 2025-12-31 | 101 | $16.89 | $1,705.89 |
| 2025-12-23 | 3 | $16.99 | $50.97 |
| 2025-12-22 | 2,800 | $16.85 | $47,180 |
| 2025-12-09 | 1,067 | $18.15 | $19,366.05 |
| 2025-12-05 | 476 | $17.45 | $8,306.2 |
| 2025-11-13 | 1,186 | $18.27 | $21,668.22 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| ATEN | 0.514 | 0.447 | Moderate |
| CSCO | 0.504 | 0.463 | Moderate |
| MC | 0.498 | 0.508 | Moderate |
| SHOP | 0.483 | 0.292 | Moderate |
| ANET | 0.477 | 0.304 | Moderate |
| GRMN | 0.471 | 0.509 | Moderate |
| TRMB | 0.461 | 0.395 | Moderate |
| C | 0.447 | 0.424 | Moderate |
| STT | 0.447 | 0.461 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare EXTR to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.