Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAMD trades at 172.6x earnings — a 165% premium to its sector average of 65.0x — without a dominant ROIC-WACC spread. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 18.2 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold). DCF fair value of $69 implies 72% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. demonstrates robust revenue expansion at 34.3% year-over-year underpinned by healthy gross margins of 49.5%, yet the capital allocation efficiency presents a significant constraint with an ROIC of only 5.0%. This return falls substantially below the estimated cost of equity (WACC) of 17.0%, resulting in a negative spread of -12.0% that erodes shareholder value despite a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicating strong financial position and an Altman Z-Score of 15.0 signaling low bankruptcy risk. The DuPont decomposition reveals that the current ROE of 6.9% is primarily driven by net margins rather than asset turnover or leverage, suggesting the business generates returns through pricing power but struggles to efficiently deploy capital into high-yield assets relative to its cost of funds.
Valuation metrics reflect a substantial premium over historical norms and sector peers, with the current P/E ratio at 83.3x compared to a sector average of 42.2x. Discounted cash flow analysis implies a fair value significantly lower than market prices, corresponding to -67.2% downside potential based on an implied ten-year free cash flow growth rate of 33.9%. While the stock exhibits strong momentum characteristics with a Fama-French alpha of 45.35%, this outperformance is concentrated in the Growth factor (HML: -0.714) rather than profitability, as evidenced by the negative RMW score of -2.106 which flags weak relative operating margins compared to peers.
Recent insider activity over the last ninety days shows net selling totaling $54.7 million, adding a layer of caution regarding near-term sentiment despite the company's solid fundamental scores. The divergence between high revenue growth and negative ROIC-WACC spread suggests that current valuations may be pricing in perfection that capital efficiency metrics do not yet support. Investors must weigh whether future operational improvements can close the gap between returns generated and costs required to fund them before the market adjusts expectations downward toward more sustainable multiples aligned with the company's actual cost of capital.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 34% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 14.7% | 16.7% | 18.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $77 | $65 | $57 |
| 3% | $82 | $69 | $59 |
| 4% | $87 | $72 | $62 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $521.54.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=16.7%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $69 (-72.2%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 39% above its 5-year average P/E of 67.2x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc. is currently trading at $424.10, a position that warrants examination against its surrounding moving average envelope to gauge relative value dynamics. When the current price resides significantly outside the bounds of short-term or long-term simple moving averages, it often signals an extended deviation from historical mean levels rather than a stable equilibrium state. This separation suggests that market participants may be pricing in aggressive momentum expectations that diverge sharply from recent trend averages, creating a scenario where statistical probability favors a potential contraction back toward central tendency values over time. The implication of such a wide spread is not directional certainty but rather an assessment of mean-reversion probabilities inherent to the asset's volatility profile. If the price has climbed well above upper envelope thresholds or fallen substantially below lower ones, the technical structure indicates heightened variance that historically tends to normalize as momentum dissipates. Observers might interpret this configuration as a setup where future price action could see corrections toward average valuation zones, though external factors like sector-specific shifts in technology stocks remain pivotal variables not captured solely by these linear metrics. The current standing at $424.10 reflects a snapshot of market sentiment that may be poised for recalibration depending on how quickly momentum fades or accelerates relative to the established trend lines.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
10-K Risk Factor Expansion
Word count of Item 1A (Risk Factors) across annual filings. Rising counts often signal new regulatory, competitive, or operational risks.
Smart Money Flow
Institutional 13F filings from top hedge funds. Positions updated quarterly from SEC EDGAR.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares Change | % Change | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | -300,500 | -54.3% | Decreased |
| Soros Fund Management | 2026-Q1 | +17,444 | +101.4% | Increased |
| Appaloosa Management | 2026-Q1 | -103,600 | -31.9% | Decreased |
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | -3,045,400 | -19.4% | Decreased |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2026-Q1 | -1,047,366 | -82.8% | Decreased |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | -363,760 | -22.0% | Decreased |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | -59,000 | -92.2% | Decreased |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | -113,658 | -13.4% | Decreased |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | +4,077,500 | +340.3% | Increased |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | +550,400 | +3.6% | Increased |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2025-Q4 | -138,274 | -7.7% | Decreased |
| Soros Fund Management | 2025-Q4 | +17,201 | +100.0% | New Position |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end. Not investment advice.
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like ARKW or ARKQ, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell AMD shares regardless of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $77.4B of passive capital is structurally linked to AMD through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies TESLA INC (TSLA) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with AMD. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 41 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
AMD Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 AMD shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 8.8% of the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) and 7.8% of the ARKQ (ARKQ). Across 38 tracked ETFs, approximately 255M shares (15.6% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest AMD Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 38 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
AMD Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. over the past year sits near $163.03 (19% of 252-day volume). The current price of $521.54 trades 219.9% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (19% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
AMD Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. converts 93% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-11.7%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 25,608 | $445.50 | $11.4M |
| 2026-05-13 | 1,049 | $448.29 | $470,256.21 |
| 2026-05-12 | 282,019 | $458.79 | $129.4M |
| 2026-05-11 | 848,354 | $455.19 | $386.2M |
| 2026-05-08 | 85,790 | $408.46 | $35.0M |
| 2026-05-07 | 21,432 | $421.39 | $9.0M |
| 2026-05-06 | 1,800 | $355.26 | $639,468 |
| 2026-05-05 | 7,602 | $341.54 | $2.6M |
| 2026-05-04 | 32,031 | $360.54 | $11.5M |
| 2026-05-01 | 4,923 | $354.49 | $1.7M |
| 2026-04-30 | 53,254 | $337.11 | $18.0M |
| 2026-04-29 | 12,063 | $323.21 | $3.9M |
| 2026-04-28 | 100 | $334.63 | $33,463 |
| 2026-04-27 | 62,577 | $347.81 | $21.8M |
| 2026-04-24 | 23,738 | $305.33 | $7.2M |
| 2026-04-23 | 2 | $303.46 | $606.92 |
| 2026-04-20 | 52,401 | $278.39 | $14.6M |
| 2026-04-17 | 63 | $278.26 | $17,530.38 |
| 2026-04-16 | 1 | $258.12 | $258.12 |
| 2026-04-15 | 4,478 | $255.07 | $1.1M |
| 2026-04-13 | 65,701 | $245.04 | $16.1M |
| 2026-04-08 | 68,026 | $221.53 | $15.1M |
| 2026-04-07 | 45,847 | $220.18 | $10.1M |
| 2026-04-06 | 40,992 | $217.50 | $8.9M |
| 2026-04-01 | 1 | $203.43 | $203.43 |
| 2026-03-31 | 2,068 | $196.04 | $405,410.72 |
| 2026-03-30 | 2,902 | $201.99 | $586,174.98 |
| 2026-03-27 | 10,226 | $203.77 | $2.1M |
| 2026-03-25 | 144 | $205.37 | $29,573.28 |
| 2026-03-24 | 165 | $202.68 | $33,442.2 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Institutional Holdings (13F Filings)
Raw SEC 13F-HR filings from institutional investment managers. Shows exact share counts and portfolio values as reported to the SEC.
| Fund | Quarter | Shares | Value ($K) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Citadel Advisors | 2026-Q1 | 12,682,300 | $2,579,960,289K |
| Millennium Management | 2026-Q1 | 5,275,900 | $1,073,276,337K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2026-Q1 | 1,292,767 | $262,987,591K |
| DE Shaw | 2026-Q1 | 733,076 | $149,129,651K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2026-Q1 | 252,600 | $51,386,418K |
| Appaloosa Management | 2026-Q1 | 221,400 | $45,039,402K |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2026-Q1 | 216,944 | $42,841,643K |
| Soros Fund Management | 2026-Q1 | 34,645 | $7,047,832K |
| Two Sigma Investments | 2026-Q1 | 5,000 | $1,017,150K |
| Citadel Advisors | 2025-Q4 | 15,727,700 | $3,368,244,232K |
| Bridgewater Associates | 2025-Q4 | 1,656,527 | $354,761,822K |
| Renaissance Technologies | 2025-Q4 | 1,264,310 | $267,912,229K |
| Millennium Management | 2025-Q4 | 1,198,400 | $256,649,344K |
| DE Shaw | 2025-Q4 | 846,734 | $181,336,553K |
| Point72 Asset Mgmt | 2025-Q4 | 553,100 | $118,451,896K |
Source: SEC 13F-HR filings. Values reported in thousands. 13F data is delayed ~45 days after quarter end.
SEC Comment Letters
SEC correspondence with the company regarding their filings. Comment letters often flag disclosure deficiencies, accounting concerns, or material omissions.
Source: SEC EDGAR correspondence. Comment letters are public records of SEC staff review of company filings.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| TSM | 0.559 | 0.585 | Moderate |
| NVDA | 0.544 | 0.578 | Moderate |
| LRCX | 0.518 | 0.593 | Moderate |
| MPWR | 0.518 | 0.543 | Moderate |
| KLAC | 0.497 | 0.562 | Moderate |
| AMAT | 0.487 | 0.549 | Moderate |
| FIX | 0.482 | 0.627 | Moderate |
| EME | 0.482 | 0.569 | Moderate |
| FN | 0.471 | 0.543 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare AMD to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.