Balchem Corporation (BCPC)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicBCPC trades at 35.4x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 36.7x. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 9/9, Altman Z 9.7 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold).
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedBalchem Corporation demonstrates exceptional fundamental quality, evidenced by a perfect Piotroski F-Score of 9/9 and an Altman Z-Score of 9.7, which collectively signal robust financial health with negligible distress risk and no signs of earnings manipulation as indicated by the Beneish M-Score of -2.46. The return on equity is primarily driven by superior operating efficiency rather than leverage or margin expansion alone; specifically, a net margin of 14.9% supported by strong revenue growth of 8.8% suggests that profitability improvements stem from high-margin product sales and effective asset turnover. However, the capital allocation efficiency remains modest given an ROIC-WACC spread of only +0.5%, indicating that while earnings generation is consistent, the company's ability to generate excess returns above its cost of capital is currently narrow compared to peers with wider spreads.
Valuation metrics present a mixed picture where the current P/E ratio of 35.4x trades slightly below the sector average of 37.1x, yet remains elevated relative to historical norms for basic materials companies. This premium multiple appears justified by the company's high-quality earnings profile and growth trajectory but suggests the market is pricing in continued execution success. A DCF analysis implies a fair value of $176 per share; determining whether current trading levels offer an attractive entry point requires comparing this intrinsic value against prevailing market prices, as the model assumes specific growth rates that may or may not materialize given the modest ROIC spread limiting compounding potential.
No additional risk factor deltas, insider activity data, or Fama-French alpha metrics were provided to further refine the risk-reward assessment beyond the fundamental scores and valuation gaps already analyzed.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
InteractiveSensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8.4% | 10.4% | 12.4% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $214 | $158 | $124 |
| 3% | $248 | $176 | $135 |
| 4% | $297 | $199 | $148 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs —.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.4%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $176 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like SLYG or VAW, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell BCPC shares regardless of Balchem Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $242M of passive capital is structurally linked to BCPC through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on BCPC's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Balchem Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Balchem Corporation (BCPC) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Linde plc (LIN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with BCPC. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 9 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
BCPC Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest BCPC Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 10 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
BCPC Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Balchem Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Balchem Corporation converts 68% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 0.5% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | 270 | $175.68 | $47,433.6 |
| 2026-04-02 | 18 | $171.88 | $3,093.84 |
| 2026-03-11 | 195 | $171.78 | $33,497.1 |
| 2026-03-10 | 9 | $172.65 | $1,553.85 |
| 2026-02-27 | 183 | $180.29 | $32,993.07 |
| 2026-02-20 | 7 | $175.00 | $1,225 |
| 2026-02-13 | 17 | $177.49 | $3,017.33 |
| 2026-02-12 | 7,996 | $178.68 | $1.4M |
| 2026-01-16 | 22 | $166.01 | $3,652.22 |
| 2026-01-08 | 366 | $154.69 | $56,616.54 |
| 2025-12-16 | 13 | $158.71 | $2,063.23 |
| 2025-12-05 | 54 | $153.35 | $8,280.9 |
| 2025-12-04 | 8,522 | $154.05 | $1.3M |
| 2025-11-10 | 4 | $152.56 | $610.24 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare BCPC to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.