Financial Services

The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG)

$16.8B
Market Cap
21.3
P/E Ratio
2.06
Beta
3.07%
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 1/9Altman Z 0.6 Distress

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

CG trades at 21.3x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 19.2x. Below-average fundamentals indicated by Piotroski score of 1/9; Altman Z of 0.6 falls in the academic distress zone.

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Valuation Context

21.3x
CG P/E
19.2x
Sector Avg
+11%
vs Sector

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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SMA 50 SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

1/9
Piotroski F-Score
Weak — below-average operational and profitability metrics
0.6
Altman Z-Score
Distress Zone — below 1.8 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.

Profitability & Value Creation

25.2%
Net Margin
11.3%
WACC
-5.6%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-20.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-3.4B
Free Cash Flow

DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition

Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.

25.2%
Net Profit Margin
NI ÷ Revenue
×
0.11x
Asset Turnover
Revenue ÷ Assets
×
4.13x
Equity Multiplier
Assets ÷ Equity
=
11.5%
Return on Equity
⚠️ High equity multiplier — ROE is being amplified by leverage, not operational excellence.

Balance Sheet Health

3.13x
Debt / Equity
-12.29%
FCF Yield

Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)

Net Insider Flow
-$23M
Net Selling
0
Buy Transactions
1
Sale Transactions
2026-03-19RUBENSTEIN DAVID MSold 2/8 qtrsOther100,000 shares
2026-03-19RUBENSTEIN DAVID MSold 2/8 qtrsSale$23M
2026-02-20FERGUSON JEFFREY WSold 2/8 qtrsGrant1,070 shares
2026-02-20JENKINS MARK DAVIDGrant6,424 shares
2026-02-20NEDELMAN JEFFREYGrant6,507 shares

Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✓ Beat
Est: $0.95
Act: $1.14
+19.9%
Q3
✓ Beat
Est: $0.89
Act: $0.91
+2.6%
Q2
✗ Miss
Est: $1.02
Act: $0.96
-5.8%
Q1
✓ Beat
Est: $0.99
Act: $1.01
+1.7%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

8.6
Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
2.88
Price/Book
3M
Avg Volume
$69.85
52W High
$33.02
52W Low
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$832M
Tracked Passive Exposure
8
ETFs Holding CG
0.15%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$547B
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like MDYV or SPMD, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CG shares regardless of The Carlyle Group Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $832M of passive capital is structurally linked to CG through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on CG's daily trading dynamics.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in The Carlyle Group Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

CG Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
CGEpicenterVBETFVYMETFVXFETFFLEXMed RiskFTILow RiskTWLOLow RiskCWLow RiskNVTLow Risk
CG Price Drop (%)0

If The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies FLEX LTD (FLEX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with CG. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 18 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

CG Ownership Dynamics

Ticker
CG

Float lock-up computed from 18 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-05-1311,242$50.04$562,549.68
2026-05-1212,457$49.46$616,123.22
2026-05-112,075$50.63$105,057.25
2026-04-295,891$47.72$281,118.52
2026-04-272,554$48.32$123,409.28
2026-04-2458$49.03$2,843.74
2026-04-09166$48.18$7,997.88
2026-04-0732$46.87$1,499.84
2026-03-311,529$46.42$70,976.18
2026-03-2433$47.68$1,573.44
2026-03-23136$47.13$6,409.68
2026-03-17191$46.38$8,858.58
2026-02-23990$53.23$52,697.7
2026-02-203$52.98$158.94
2026-02-102,724$59.21$161,288.04
2026-02-091,418$58.71$83,250.78
2026-02-0612,600$55.41$698,166
2026-02-044,342$58.27$253,008.34
2026-01-30174,906$59.50$10.4M
2026-01-262,108$61.28$129,178.24
2026-01-232,253$62.35$140,474.55
2026-01-205,991$65.62$393,129.42
2026-01-1243$65.41$2,812.63
2025-12-30122,024$60.33$7.4M
2025-12-22100$59.54$5,954
2025-12-191,475$58.85$86,803.75
2025-12-182,452$58.02$142,265.04
2025-12-171,540$57.78$88,981.2
2025-12-163,140$57.80$181,492
2025-12-041,034$55.79$57,686.86

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

Compare CG to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.