Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (CPRX)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 18.0x earnings — a 72% discount to the sector average of 65.2x — CPRX is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9. Beneish M-Score of -1.78 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe company demonstrates robust capital efficiency with an ROIC of 21.3%, indicating strong value creation relative to the cost of equity, while high gross margins at 85.2% and net margins of 36.4% suggest a dominant pricing power or low variable costs within its healthcare sector. The DuPont decomposition implies that this return is driven primarily by exceptional margin expansion rather than asset turnover or financial leverage. Credibility metrics further support the quality of earnings, as evidenced by a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 and a Beneish M-Score of -1.78, which collectively signal low manipulation risk and solid fundamental integrity despite moderate revenue growth of 19.8% year-over-year.
Valuation metrics present a stark divergence between the stock's current pricing and broader sector norms or intrinsic value models. Trading at an 18.0x P/E multiple, the security is priced significantly below the healthcare sector average of 60.4x, suggesting the market may be applying a discount not fully justified by its superior margin profile compared to peers. Furthermore, the DCF analysis assigns a fair value of $66, implying that current pricing likely undervalues future cash flow potential if growth assumptions hold steady; however, this wide gap indicates substantial room for re-rating or conversely, hidden risks regarding long-term sustainability not captured in the static model inputs.
While specific risk factor deltas and insider activity data were not provided to complete a full risk/reward synthesis, the combination of high margins and low valuation multiples creates an asymmetric setup often associated with mean-reversion opportunities. The divergence between intrinsic value estimates and market price suggests that sentiment or liquidity constraints may be suppressing the stock relative to its fundamental economics, though investors must remain cognizant that such deep discounts can persist if sector headwinds materialize.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
InteractiveSensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $79 | $60 | $48 |
| 3% | $92 | $66 | $51 |
| 4% | $111 | $74 | $56 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs —.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $66 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XBI or SLYG, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CPRX shares regardless of Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $144M of passive capital is structurally linked to CPRX through 7 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on CPRX's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 7 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (CPRX) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies KRYSTAL BIOTECH INC (KRYS) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with CPRX. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 7 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CPRX Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest CPRX Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 7 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CPRX Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. converts 71% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 20 | $30.52 | $610.4 |
| 2026-05-01 | 1 | $28.13 | $28.13 |
| 2026-04-30 | 98,833 | $28.26 | $2.8M |
| 2026-04-23 | 4 | $25.94 | $103.76 |
| 2026-04-20 | 453,627 | $26.26 | $11.9M |
| 2026-04-13 | 1,000 | $24.94 | $24,940 |
| 2026-03-27 | 10,277 | $24.25 | $249,217.25 |
| 2026-03-25 | 10,760 | $23.07 | $248,233.2 |
| 2026-03-23 | 18 | $22.79 | $410.22 |
| 2026-03-17 | 51,438 | $23.30 | $1.2M |
| 2026-03-11 | 594 | $24.77 | $14,713.38 |
| 2026-03-06 | 136 | $24.32 | $3,307.52 |
| 2026-03-05 | 114 | $24.69 | $2,814.66 |
| 2026-03-03 | 2,434 | $23.88 | $58,123.92 |
| 2026-03-02 | 644 | $23.08 | $14,863.52 |
| 2026-02-27 | 6,726 | $24.88 | $167,342.88 |
| 2026-02-09 | 298 | $24.44 | $7,283.12 |
| 2026-02-05 | 18 | $25.06 | $451.08 |
| 2026-02-04 | 717 | $25.22 | $18,082.74 |
| 2026-02-02 | 4,606 | $24.30 | $111,925.8 |
| 2026-01-30 | 6 | $24.58 | $147.48 |
| 2026-01-28 | 63 | $24.07 | $1,516.41 |
| 2026-01-23 | 1,029 | $24.45 | $25,159.05 |
| 2026-01-06 | 2,468 | $22.80 | $56,270.4 |
| 2026-01-05 | 18 | $23.15 | $416.7 |
| 2026-01-02 | 1,861 | $23.34 | $43,435.74 |
| 2025-11-26 | 4,698 | $23.59 | $110,825.82 |
| 2025-11-25 | 1,604 | $23.51 | $37,710.04 |
| 2025-11-24 | 968 | $23.28 | $22,535.04 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare CPRX to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.