Consumer Cyclical

DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS)

$17.2B
Market Cap
19.1
P/E Ratio
1.25
Beta
2.64%
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 4/9Altman Z 2.8 Gray ZoneBeneish M -0.97 Flag (> −2.22)ROIC−WACC -4.2%

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

At 19.1x earnings — a 45% discount to the sector average of 35.0x — DKS is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 2.8. Beneish M-Score of -0.97 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Algorithmic Teardown

AI-Generated

The capital allocation efficiency of DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. is underscored by a robust Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 16.8%, indicating that the firm generates returns exceeding typical cost of equity benchmarks. This strength is driven primarily by high asset turnover at 1.29x and significant financial leverage with an equity multiplier of 3.27x, which together amplify a net margin of 8.7% into a DuPont ROE of 36.4%. While the Beneish M-Score of -1.78 suggests low earnings manipulation risk, the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 reflects moderate fundamental stability relative to peers, supported by healthy gross margins near 36%, though revenue growth remains subdued at 3.5% year-over-year.

Valuation metrics present a notable divergence from sector norms; trading at a current P/E ratio of 19.1x, the stock is priced significantly below the consumer cyclical average of 42.1x. This discount implies that market participants are pricing in slower growth trajectories or elevated execution risks compared to industry counterparts. A discounted cash flow analysis estimates a fair value of $22, which serves as an anchor for assessing whether current prices reflect realistic long-term assumptions given the modest revenue expansion rate and reliance on leverage to drive profitability.

Insider activity over the past 90 days shows neutral flows with no significant buying or selling pressure, offering limited insight into management's immediate sentiment regarding future prospects. The combination of a subpar growth profile against a deeply discounted valuation creates a scenario where risk-adjusted returns depend heavily on whether margin expansion can accelerate to justify the current multiple compression relative to historical and sector benchmarks.

Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.

DCF Sandbox

Interactive

Sensitivity Matrix

TG ↓ / WACC →9.7%11.7%13.7%
2%$27$20$16
3%$30$22$18
4%$34$25$19

Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs .

Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.7%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $22 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.

Valuation Context

19.1x
DKS P/E
35.0x
Sector Avg
-45%
vs Sector

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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SMA 50 SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

4/9
Piotroski F-Score
Average — mixed operational signals
2.8
Altman Z-Score
Grey Zone — between 1.8 and 3.0 thresholds. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.
-0.97
Beneish M-Score
Above threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review per Beneish model. Threshold: <-2.22 = below threshold.

Profitability & Value Creation

32.9%
Gross Margin
4.9%
Net Margin
7.5%
ROIC
11.7%
WACC
ROIC − WACC Spread: -4.2%— Negative spread.
+28.1%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-27.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
400.2M
Free Cash Flow
103%
FCF Payout Ratio

⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.

DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition

Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.

8.7%
Net Profit Margin
NI ÷ Revenue
×
1.29x
Asset Turnover
Revenue ÷ Assets
×
3.27x
Equity Multiplier
Assets ÷ Equity
=
36.4%
Return on Equity
⚠️ High equity multiplier — ROE is being amplified by leverage, not operational excellence.

Balance Sheet Health

2.14x
Debt / Equity
1.53x
Current Ratio
18.8x
Interest Coverage
0.3x
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.26%
FCF Yield
1.7B
EBITDA

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✓ Beat
Est: $3.21
Act: $3.37
+4.9%
Q3
✓ Beat
Est: $4.30
Act: $4.38
+1.9%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $2.71
Act: $2.78
+2.7%
Q1
✓ Beat
Est: $2.95
Act: $3.45
+17.0%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

11.8
Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
3.06
Price/Book
1M
Avg Volume
$237.31
52W High
$166.37
52W Low
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$1.0B
Tracked Passive Exposure
8
ETFs Holding DKS
0.16%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$636B
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like XRT or MDYV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell DKS shares regardless of DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $1.0B of passive capital is structurally linked to DKS through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

DKS Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
DKSEpicenterVBETFVIGETFVYMETFTGTLow RiskMUSALow RiskBJLow RiskBURLLow RiskEBAYLow Risk
DKS Price Drop (%)0

If DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies TARGET CORP (TGT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with DKS. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 21 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

DKS Ownership Dynamics

Ticker
DKS

Float lock-up computed from 21 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

DKS Capital Efficiency

How efficiently does DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.

Free Cash Flow
$400M
EBITDA
$1.7B
FCF Conversion
24%
Reinvestment Rate
76%
24% of EBITDA → Free Cash
0% (cash burn)25% (low)50% (efficient)100% (pure cash)
ROIC
7.5%
ROIC − WACC Spread
-4.2%

DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc. converts 24% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 76% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-4.2%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.

Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-05-13302$219.42$66,264.84
2026-05-0747,597$226.50$10.8M
2026-04-29450$226.34$101,853
2026-04-233,873$228.21$883,857.33
2026-04-2244$228.81$10,067.64
2026-04-2010,484$224.36$2.4M
2026-04-165,249$216.98$1.1M
2026-04-1414$210.57$2,947.98
2026-04-134,469$212.46$949,483.74
2026-04-101$212.62$212.62
2026-04-0920,103$204.75$4.1M
2026-04-08119$200.35$23,841.65
2026-04-0712,392$199.66$2.5M
2026-04-01204,040$198.29$40.5M
2026-03-316,760$190.62$1.3M
2026-03-26806$194.01$156,372.06
2026-03-25312$193.77$60,456.24
2026-03-2430$192.51$5,775.3
2026-03-231,814$190.01$344,678.14
2026-03-2016,209$193.04$3.1M
2026-03-12128$195.53$25,027.84
2026-03-113,161$194.59$615,098.99
2026-03-1012,475$195.90$2.4M
2026-02-2335$206.23$7,218.05
2026-02-182,225$206.15$458,683.75
2026-02-171,145$201.25$230,431.25
2026-02-101,988$201.92$401,416.96
2026-01-29133$205.68$27,355.44
2026-01-281,625$205.81$334,441.25
2026-01-226,420$211.98$1.4M

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

Compare DKS to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.