DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. (DOCN)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 30.8x earnings — a 53% discount to the sector average of 65.0x — DOCN is in the lower valuation range. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 8/9, Altman Z 3.3 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold).
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedDigitalOcean Holdings exhibits robust fundamental quality characterized by an exceptionally strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a Beneish M-Score of -2.25, signaling high financial integrity and low earnings manipulation risk. While the Altman Z-Score of 3.3 places the company in a safe zone regarding bankruptcy probability, capital efficiency metrics present a nuanced picture; the ROIC-WACC spread is narrow at +0.2%, indicating that while returns exceed cost of capital, the margin for error is slim compared to high-growth peers. Profitability drivers are clear within the DuPont framework, as an impressive 28.8% net margin and nearly 60% gross margin suggest superior pricing power or operational leverage, though revenue growth moderates at 15.5% year-over-year.
Valuation analysis reveals a significant divergence between current multiples and historical norms relative to the sector. The stock trades at a P/E of 30.8x, which stands in stark contrast to the technology sector average of 58.2x, suggesting the market is pricing in significantly lower growth expectations or assigning higher risk premiums than typical for the broader tech index. Although specific DCF inputs are not provided, this substantial discount to the peer median implies that current valuations may already be conservative relative to industry standards, yet the compressed ROIC spread limits upside potential if capital allocation does not improve. The market appears to have priced in a scenario where high margins do not translate into explosive top-line expansion at scale.
Risk assessment highlights a tension between operational stability and return generation efficiency. Despite strong balance sheet metrics indicated by the Altman score, the minimal 0.2% spread between ROIC and WACC suggests that future value creation depends heavily on either margin expansion or accelerated capital turnover rather than organic leverage. Investors must weigh the defensive characteristics of high margins against the constraint imposed by low incremental returns on invested capital when evaluating long-term equity risk premiums.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like MDYG or SPMD, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell DOCN shares regardless of DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $636M of passive capital is structurally linked to DOCN through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on DOCN's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. (DOCN) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies FLEX LTD (FLEX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with DOCN. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 10 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
DOCN Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest DOCN Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 12 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
DOCN Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. converts 11% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a low conversion rate suggesting heavy reinvestment. This may indicate a growth phase (building capacity) or structural capital intensity. The 89% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 0.2% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 219 | $159.18 | $34,860.42 |
| 2026-05-13 | 21,878 | $155.72 | $3.4M |
| 2026-05-11 | 34,098 | $163.95 | $5.6M |
| 2026-05-07 | 136 | $160.99 | $21,894.64 |
| 2026-05-05 | 28,278 | $108.81 | $3.1M |
| 2026-04-30 | 398 | $96.87 | $38,554.26 |
| 2026-04-27 | 5,562 | $95.21 | $529,558.02 |
| 2026-04-21 | 153,072 | $89.57 | $13.7M |
| 2026-04-20 | 167 | $85.63 | $14,300.21 |
| 2026-04-10 | 746 | $87.17 | $65,028.82 |
| 2026-04-09 | 81,083 | $89.38 | $7.2M |
| 2026-04-06 | 23,534 | $90.01 | $2.1M |
| 2026-04-02 | 193 | $87.68 | $16,922.24 |
| 2026-03-26 | 314,021 | $87.00 | $27.3M |
| 2026-03-24 | 254 | $86.02 | $21,849.08 |
| 2026-03-23 | 88,667 | $82.65 | $7.3M |
| 2026-03-20 | 253 | $85.35 | $21,593.55 |
| 2026-03-19 | 20,045 | $82.48 | $1.7M |
| 2026-03-17 | 670 | $72.01 | $48,246.7 |
| 2026-03-16 | 77,991 | $68.63 | $5.4M |
| 2026-03-06 | 53,485 | $53.83 | $2.9M |
| 2026-03-03 | 43,237 | $58.24 | $2.5M |
| 2026-02-26 | 1,945 | $59.27 | $115,280.15 |
| 2026-02-25 | 8,247 | $62.74 | $517,416.78 |
| 2026-02-23 | 240,926 | $63.63 | $15.3M |
| 2026-02-18 | 381 | $67.66 | $25,778.46 |
| 2026-02-17 | 4,720 | $68.16 | $321,715.2 |
| 2026-02-13 | 240 | $63.78 | $15,307.2 |
| 2026-02-11 | 10,722 | $64.08 | $687,065.76 |
| 2026-02-10 | 50,972 | $64.74 | $3.3M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare DOCN to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.