Technology

DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. (DOCN)

$8.1B
Market Cap
30.8
P/E Ratio
1.76
Beta
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 8/9Altman Z 3.3 SafeBeneish M -2.25 CleanROIC−WACC +0.3%

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

At 30.8x earnings — a 53% discount to the sector average of 65.0x — DOCN is in the lower valuation range. Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 8/9, Altman Z 3.3 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold).

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Algorithmic Teardown

AI-Generated

DigitalOcean Holdings exhibits robust fundamental quality characterized by an exceptionally strong Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 and a Beneish M-Score of -2.25, signaling high financial integrity and low earnings manipulation risk. While the Altman Z-Score of 3.3 places the company in a safe zone regarding bankruptcy probability, capital efficiency metrics present a nuanced picture; the ROIC-WACC spread is narrow at +0.2%, indicating that while returns exceed cost of capital, the margin for error is slim compared to high-growth peers. Profitability drivers are clear within the DuPont framework, as an impressive 28.8% net margin and nearly 60% gross margin suggest superior pricing power or operational leverage, though revenue growth moderates at 15.5% year-over-year.

Valuation analysis reveals a significant divergence between current multiples and historical norms relative to the sector. The stock trades at a P/E of 30.8x, which stands in stark contrast to the technology sector average of 58.2x, suggesting the market is pricing in significantly lower growth expectations or assigning higher risk premiums than typical for the broader tech index. Although specific DCF inputs are not provided, this substantial discount to the peer median implies that current valuations may already be conservative relative to industry standards, yet the compressed ROIC spread limits upside potential if capital allocation does not improve. The market appears to have priced in a scenario where high margins do not translate into explosive top-line expansion at scale.

Risk assessment highlights a tension between operational stability and return generation efficiency. Despite strong balance sheet metrics indicated by the Altman score, the minimal 0.2% spread between ROIC and WACC suggests that future value creation depends heavily on either margin expansion or accelerated capital turnover rather than organic leverage. Investors must weigh the defensive characteristics of high margins against the constraint imposed by low incremental returns on invested capital when evaluating long-term equity risk premiums.

Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.

Valuation Context

30.8x
DOCN P/E
65.0x
Sector Avg
-53%
vs Sector

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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SMA 50 SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

8/9
Piotroski F-Score
Strong — high operational efficiency and profitability signals
3.3
Altman Z-Score
Safe Zone — above 3.0 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.
-2.25
Beneish M-Score
Below threshold — no statistical earnings quality concern per Beneish model. Threshold: <-2.22 = below threshold.

Profitability & Value Creation

59.9%
Gross Margin
28.8%
Net Margin
14.6%
ROIC
14.3%
WACC
ROIC − WACC Spread: +0.3%— Positive spread.
+15.5%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+206.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.1M
Free Cash Flow

Balance Sheet Health

-65.05x
Debt / Equity
0.69x
Current Ratio
12.5x
Interest Coverage
2.0x
Net Debt / EBITDA
0.47%
FCF Yield
362.1M
EBITDA

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✓ Beat
Est: $0.44
Act: $0.56
+26.3%
Q3
✓ Beat
Est: $0.47
Act: $0.59
+26.2%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $0.49
Act: $0.54
+9.5%
Q1
✓ Beat
Est: $0.38
Act: $0.44
+15.5%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

44.5
Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
-248.62
Price/Book
3M
Avg Volume
$88.84
52W High
$25.45
52W Low
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$636M
Tracked Passive Exposure
8
ETFs Holding DOCN
0.13%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$486B
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like MDYG or SPMD, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell DOCN shares regardless of DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $636M of passive capital is structurally linked to DOCN through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on DOCN's daily trading dynamics.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

DOCN Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
DOCNEpicenterVBETFVGTETFVXFETFFLEXMed RiskBELow RiskFTILow RiskTWLOLow RiskCWLow Risk
DOCN Price Drop (%)0

If DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. (DOCN) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies FLEX LTD (FLEX) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with DOCN. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 10 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

DOCN Ownership Dynamics

Ticker
DOCN

Float lock-up computed from 12 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

DOCN Capital Efficiency

How efficiently does DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.

Free Cash Flow
$41M
EBITDA
$362M
FCF Conversion
11%
Reinvestment Rate
89%
11% of EBITDA → Free Cash
0% (cash burn)25% (low)50% (efficient)100% (pure cash)
ROIC
14.6%
ROIC − WACC Spread
0.2%

DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. converts 11% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a low conversion rate suggesting heavy reinvestment. This may indicate a growth phase (building capacity) or structural capital intensity. The 89% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 0.2% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.

Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-05-14219$159.18$34,860.42
2026-05-1321,878$155.72$3.4M
2026-05-1134,098$163.95$5.6M
2026-05-07136$160.99$21,894.64
2026-05-0528,278$108.81$3.1M
2026-04-30398$96.87$38,554.26
2026-04-275,562$95.21$529,558.02
2026-04-21153,072$89.57$13.7M
2026-04-20167$85.63$14,300.21
2026-04-10746$87.17$65,028.82
2026-04-0981,083$89.38$7.2M
2026-04-0623,534$90.01$2.1M
2026-04-02193$87.68$16,922.24
2026-03-26314,021$87.00$27.3M
2026-03-24254$86.02$21,849.08
2026-03-2388,667$82.65$7.3M
2026-03-20253$85.35$21,593.55
2026-03-1920,045$82.48$1.7M
2026-03-17670$72.01$48,246.7
2026-03-1677,991$68.63$5.4M
2026-03-0653,485$53.83$2.9M
2026-03-0343,237$58.24$2.5M
2026-02-261,945$59.27$115,280.15
2026-02-258,247$62.74$517,416.78
2026-02-23240,926$63.63$15.3M
2026-02-18381$67.66$25,778.46
2026-02-174,720$68.16$321,715.2
2026-02-13240$63.78$15,307.2
2026-02-1110,722$64.08$687,065.76
2026-02-1050,972$64.74$3.3M

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

Compare DOCN to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.