DT Midstream, Inc. (DTM)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicDTM trades at 31.7x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 34.8x. Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 8/9) with Altman Z of 2.1.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of DT Midstream, Inc. exhibit a high-quality earnings profile characterized by exceptional profitability and financial stability. A Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 combined with a Beneish M-Score of -2.64 signals robust operational strength while effectively ruling out manipulation risks. The DuPont decomposition reveals that the 9.0% ROE is primarily driven by superior net margins at 35.5%, rather than asset turnover or leverage, indicating efficient cost management within a regulated utility environment despite modest revenue growth of 26.7%. However, the return on invested capital stands at only 6.1%, which creates a notable divergence from typical high-growth infrastructure peers where ROIC often exceeds the cost of equity; this spread suggests that while accounting metrics are pristine, the underlying economic efficiency relative to total capital deployed may be constrained by sector-specific dynamics or asset base characteristics not fully captured in standard margin analysis.
Valuation metrics present a mixed picture where current multiples reflect significant growth expectations but trade near historical and peer averages on an earnings basis. With a P/E ratio of 31.7x closely mirroring the sector average of 31.4x, the market appears to price DTM as a standard industry participant rather than a distinct outlier, despite its superior margin profile. A Discounted Cash Flow analysis suggests a fair value of $164; comparing this intrinsic estimate against current trading levels requires assessing whether the implied growth rate embedded in the model aligns with the observed 26.7% revenue expansion or if it assumes mean reversion. The convergence of high margins and reasonable valuation multiples implies that investors are paying for quality, yet the gap between ROIC and WACC warrants scrutiny regarding long-term value creation potential relative to the capital structure's leverage multiplier of 2.07x.
Recent insider activity introduces a counterweight to the otherwise positive fundamental narrative, with $246,631 in net selling over the last 90 days potentially signaling management caution or portfolio rebalancing rather than lack of conviction given the strong F-Score. While the high gross margin of 79.2% underscores pricing power and operational leverage, the combination of modest ROIC growth and insider outflows suggests a risk/reward profile where downside protection relies heavily on regulatory stability rather than aggressive capital efficiency improvements. The data indicates a company with excellent earnings quality that may be facing headwinds in capital allocation efficiency or management sentiment, requiring careful assessment of whether current valuations adequately compensate for these specific operational nuances.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
InteractiveSensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.6% | 8.6% | 10.6% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $219 | $138 | $95 |
| 3% | $282 | $164 | $109 |
| 4% | $394 | $202 | $127 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs —.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.6%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $164 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like MDYG or VDE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell DTM shares regardless of DT Midstream, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $1.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to DTM through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in DT Midstream, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If DT Midstream, Inc. (DTM) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with DTM. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 17 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
DTM Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest DTM Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 17 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
DTM Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does DT Midstream, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
DT Midstream, Inc. converts 43% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 57% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.4%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 911 | $145.08 | $132,167.88 |
| 2026-05-08 | 1 | $144.13 | $144.13 |
| 2026-04-24 | 1,261 | $133.63 | $168,507.43 |
| 2026-04-01 | 2,443 | $134.67 | $328,998.81 |
| 2026-03-30 | 23,203 | $135.47 | $3.1M |
| 2026-03-27 | 10,000 | $137.13 | $1.4M |
| 2026-03-26 | 17,611 | $136.15 | $2.4M |
| 2026-03-24 | 294 | $137.04 | $40,289.76 |
| 2026-03-12 | 36 | $138.86 | $4,998.96 |
| 2026-03-05 | 901 | $142.41 | $128,311.41 |
| 2026-02-17 | 21,097 | $133.21 | $2.8M |
| 2026-01-15 | 29 | $117.80 | $3,416.2 |
| 2025-11-10 | 9,940 | $114.00 | $1.1M |
| 2025-11-07 | 35 | $111.63 | $3,907.05 |
| 2025-11-04 | 39 | $112.28 | $4,378.92 |
| 2025-10-27 | 1,559 | $105.61 | $164,645.99 |
| 2025-10-14 | 937 | $109.91 | $102,985.67 |
| 2025-10-06 | 16 | $114.49 | $1,831.84 |
| 2025-10-02 | 34,566 | $114.04 | $3.9M |
| 2025-10-01 | 34,758 | $113.06 | $3.9M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare DTM to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.