Enova International, Inc. (ENVA)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicENVA trades at 13.7x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 19.2x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedEnova International's capital allocation efficiency presents a notable constraint, as the 5.3% return on invested capital falls significantly short of typical hurdle rates required for value creation in financial services. Despite this compressed ROIC-WACC spread, profitability drivers remain robust with net margins expanding to 9.8% and gross margins holding steady at 47.3%, suggesting strong pricing power or cost discipline within the lending model. The Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicates a moderate quality profile without clear deterioration signals, while the Beneish M-Score of -3.44 points to low earnings manipulation risk; however, these qualitative strengths are partially offset by revenue growth that, at 18.6% year-over-year, has not yet translated into superior capital efficiency relative to peers.
Valuation metrics currently reflect a market discount compared to sector norms, with the stock trading at 13.7x earnings versus an industry average of 18.0x. This compression implies that investors are pricing in lower growth sustainability or higher operational risk than observed in the broader financial services cohort. Conversely, discounted cash flow analysis suggests a substantial upside potential if current assumptions regarding long-term cash flows and terminal value hold true, with implied fair value calculated at $1229. The divergence between the depressed multiple and elevated DCF target indicates that the market may be undervaluing the company's margin expansion capabilities or is compensating for perceived balance sheet fragility not fully captured in current earnings multiples.
While specific risk factor deltas regarding Fama-French alpha, insider activity, or volatility shifts are absent from the provided dataset, the fundamental disconnect between low ROIC and high revenue growth warrants scrutiny regarding capital intensity trends. The combination of a moderate Piotroski score and a wide gap between trading price and DCF fair value creates an asymmetric setup where future performance hinges on whether management can improve return generation to match top-line expansion rates. Investors must weigh the attractive entry point against the historical lack of efficient capital deployment before concluding that current valuation levels adequately reflect underlying economic realities.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
InteractiveSensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $1523 | $1090 | $831 |
| 3% | $1802 | $1229 | $912 |
| 4% | $2221 | $1414 | $1012 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs —.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $1229 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like SLYG or SPSM, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ENVA shares regardless of Enova International, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $78M of passive capital is structurally linked to ENVA through 6 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on ENVA's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 6 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Enova International, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Enova International, Inc. (ENVA) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with ENVA. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 6 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ENVA Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest ENVA Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 6 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ENVA Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Enova International, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Enova International, Inc. converts 395% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 8,973 | $166.88 | $1.5M |
| 2026-04-24 | 341 | $169.42 | $57,772.22 |
| 2026-04-20 | 2,922 | $162.81 | $475,730.82 |
| 2026-03-31 | 35 | $131.26 | $4,594.1 |
| 2026-03-23 | 6 | $134.99 | $809.94 |
| 2026-03-18 | 39 | $137.21 | $5,351.19 |
| 2026-03-10 | 9,375 | $138.91 | $1.3M |
| 2026-02-27 | 1,722 | $148.36 | $255,475.92 |
| 2026-02-02 | 7 | $165.17 | $1,156.19 |
| 2026-01-08 | 44 | $163.30 | $7,185.2 |
| 2026-01-05 | 498 | $161.96 | $80,656.08 |
| 2025-12-22 | 8,382 | $163.85 | $1.4M |
| 2025-12-08 | 1,169 | $135.38 | $158,259.22 |
| 2025-12-05 | 1,140 | $136.16 | $155,222.4 |
| 2025-12-04 | 437 | $135.40 | $59,169.8 |
| 2025-11-24 | 400 | $124.18 | $49,672 |
| 2025-11-17 | 80 | $125.69 | $10,055.2 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare ENVA to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.