Element Solutions Inc (ESI)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicESI trades at 42.6x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 36.7x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 2.8.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Element Solutions Inc reveal a significant capital efficiency gap, where the return on invested capital of 5.4% falls materially short of the weighted average cost of capital at 11.1%, generating a negative spread of -5.7%. This structural inefficiency is compounded by modest revenue growth of only 3.8% year-over-year and a net margin compression to 7.5%, despite maintaining robust gross margins near 42%. While the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 suggests moderate financial strength, the Altman Z-Score of 2.8 places the company in a gray zone approaching distress territory, whereas the negative Beneish M-Score of -2.41 indicates low probability of earnings manipulation; however, these qualitative signals cannot offset the quantitative reality that current operations are destroying value rather than creating it relative to capital employed.
Valuation metrics present a stark divergence between market pricing and intrinsic worth derived from discounted cash flow analysis. The stock currently trades at 42.6x forward earnings, which commands a substantial premium over the sector average of 37.3x, suggesting investors are pricing in aggressive future expansion that has not yet materialized in financial results. This elevated multiple is difficult to reconcile with the DCF fair value estimate of $5 per share, implying that current market prices assume growth rates and margin expansions significantly higher than those supported by recent historical performance or capital allocation efficiency.
The risk profile appears heightened given the negative ROIC-WACC spread combined with a valuation premium priced into limited revenue expansion. While the low Beneish M-Score offers some comfort regarding earnings integrity, the fundamental disconnect between high multiple expectations and sub-optimal capital returns creates an asymmetric setup where downside protection is eroded by overvaluation while upside potential remains constrained by operational headwinds until capital efficiency improves or growth accelerates materially beyond current trajectories.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
InteractiveSensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9.1% | 11.1% | 13.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $7 | $4 | $3 |
| 3% | $8 | $5 | $3 |
| 4% | $10 | $6 | $4 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs —.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.1%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $5 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like VAW or IJR, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ESI shares regardless of Element Solutions Inc's individual fundamentals. We estimate $1.2B of passive capital is structurally linked to ESI through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Element Solutions Inc to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Element Solutions Inc (ESI) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Linde plc (LIN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with ESI. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 12 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ESI Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest ESI Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 11 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ESI Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Element Solutions Inc convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Element Solutions Inc converts 48% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The 52% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-5.7%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 32,322 | $44.23 | $1.4M |
| 2026-05-13 | 79,165 | $43.95 | $3.5M |
| 2026-05-08 | 23,009 | $42.27 | $972,590.43 |
| 2026-05-07 | 16,247 | $44.24 | $718,767.28 |
| 2026-05-05 | 90 | $42.80 | $3,852 |
| 2026-05-01 | 29,485 | $42.59 | $1.3M |
| 2026-04-27 | 5,551 | $40.34 | $223,927.34 |
| 2026-04-15 | 471 | $38.19 | $17,987.49 |
| 2026-04-13 | 13,154 | $37.59 | $494,458.86 |
| 2026-03-25 | 260 | $33.76 | $8,777.6 |
| 2026-03-23 | 20 | $31.04 | $620.8 |
| 2026-03-20 | 25 | $31.80 | $795 |
| 2026-03-09 | 61,498 | $30.73 | $1.9M |
| 2026-03-03 | 45,097 | $34.68 | $1.6M |
| 2026-02-25 | 78,726 | $36.71 | $2.9M |
| 2026-02-24 | 4,050 | $36.17 | $146,488.5 |
| 2026-02-23 | 14,690 | $35.44 | $520,613.6 |
| 2026-02-20 | 327,790 | $35.50 | $11.6M |
| 2026-02-18 | 125 | $32.31 | $4,038.75 |
| 2026-02-09 | 6,887 | $29.94 | $206,196.78 |
| 2026-02-02 | 177 | $29.10 | $5,150.7 |
| 2026-01-09 | 70,055 | $27.56 | $1.9M |
| 2025-12-26 | 15 | $25.72 | $385.8 |
| 2025-12-19 | 3,580 | $25.18 | $90,144.4 |
| 2025-12-12 | 460 | $27.63 | $12,709.8 |
| 2025-12-09 | 423 | $26.29 | $11,120.67 |
| 2025-12-04 | 241 | $25.95 | $6,253.95 |
| 2025-11-13 | 3 | $27.52 | $82.56 |
| 2025-11-10 | 2,917 | $27.66 | $80,684.22 |
| 2025-11-07 | 1,605 | $26.77 | $42,965.85 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare ESI to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.