FSS (FSS)

$6.4B
Market Cap
26.1
P/E Ratio
1.33
Beta
0.56%
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 5/9Altman Z 6.2 SafeBeneish M -2.15 Flag (> −2.22)ROIC−WACC +0.4%

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 6.2. Beneish M-Score of -2.15 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Algorithmic Teardown

AI-Generated

The firm demonstrates robust profitability dynamics, anchored by an 11.3% net margin and a gross margin of 28.9%, while revenue expands at a compound annual rate of 17.1%. However, the capital allocation efficiency presents a nuanced picture; although Return on Invested Capital stands at 12.7%, it merely exceeds the Weighted Average Cost of Capital by a narrow 0.4% spread, suggesting limited excess returns generated from deployed equity. This operational profile is supported by strong solvency and earnings quality indicators, evidenced by an Altman Z-Score of 6.2 indicating low bankruptcy risk and a Beneish M-Score of -2.15 that signals minimal manipulation concerns. The Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 further corroborates moderate fundamental stability without the aggressive score improvements often seen in turnaround scenarios, implying steady but not necessarily accelerating financial health driven primarily by margin expansion rather than leverage or asset turnover shifts.

Valuation metrics suggest a premium pricing environment relative to historical norms and sector peers, as the current multiple of 26.1x implies significant market expectations for sustained growth that may outpace the observed 17.1% revenue trajectory. A Discounted Cash Flow analysis anchors fair value at $77, providing a quantitative benchmark against which current market pricing must be weighed to assess whether the premium is justified by future cash flow potential or represents an overextension of valuation models. The divergence between the implied growth required to support this multiple and the realized historical performance creates a critical juncture for determining if the stock's price reflects optimistic forward-looking assumptions or speculative positioning.

No specific risk factor deltas, insider trading activity, or Fama-French alpha data were provided in the input dataset; consequently, an assessment of idiosyncratic risks relative to market factors cannot be synthesized from the available information. The analysis remains confined to fundamental quality and valuation metrics, leaving the synthesis of broader systematic risks outside the scope of this evaluation based strictly on the supplied parameters.

Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.

DCF Sandbox

Interactive

Sensitivity Matrix

TG ↓ / WACC →10.2%12.2%14.2%
2%$91$70$56
3%$102$77$60
4%$117$85$65

Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs .

Pre-computed DCF: WACC=12.2%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $77 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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SMA 50 SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

5/9
Piotroski F-Score
Average — mixed operational signals
6.2
Altman Z-Score
Safe Zone — above 3.0 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.
-2.15
Beneish M-Score
Above threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review per Beneish model. Threshold: <-2.22 = below threshold.

Profitability & Value Creation

28.9%
Gross Margin
11.3%
Net Margin
12.7%
ROIC
12.2%
WACC
ROIC − WACC Spread: +0.4%— Positive spread.
+17.1%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+14.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
227.1M
Free Cash Flow
15%
FCF Payout Ratio

✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.

Balance Sheet Health

0.73x
Debt / Equity
3.02x
Current Ratio
24.0x
Interest Coverage
1.2x
Net Debt / EBITDA
3.30%
FCF Yield
419.1M
EBITDA

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✓ Beat
Est: $0.73
Act: $0.76
+3.9%
Q3
✓ Beat
Est: $1.06
Act: $1.17
+10.5%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $1.08
Act: $1.14
+5.6%
Q1
✓ Beat
Est: $1.09
Act: $1.16
+5.9%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

19.5
Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
4.61
Price/Book
446408
Avg Volume
$132.89
52W High
$66.47
52W Low
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$465M
Tracked Passive Exposure
8
ETFs Holding FSS
0.13%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$347B
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like SLYG or SPSM, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell FSS shares regardless of FSS's individual fundamentals. We estimate $465M of passive capital is structurally linked to FSS through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on FSS's daily trading dynamics.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in FSS to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

FSS Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
FSSEpicenterVBETFVXFETFVBKETFCATLow RiskGELow RiskGEVLow RiskBELow RiskRTXMed Risk
FSS Price Drop (%)0

If FSS (FSS) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with FSS. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 9 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

FSS Ownership Dynamics

Ticker
FSS

Float lock-up computed from 9 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

FSS Capital Efficiency

How efficiently does FSS convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.

Free Cash Flow
$227M
EBITDA
$419M
FCF Conversion
54%
Reinvestment Rate
46%
54% of EBITDA → Free Cash
0% (cash burn)25% (low)50% (efficient)100% (pure cash)
ROIC
12.7%
ROIC − WACC Spread
0.4%

FSS converts 54% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 0.4% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.

Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-05-133,983$115.43$459,757.69
2026-05-0613,860$121.51$1.7M
2026-04-2914$111.74$1,564.36
2026-04-211,045$115.28$120,467.6
2026-04-178$110.41$883.28
2026-04-162$113.15$226.3
2026-03-171,055$106.93$112,811.15
2026-03-131$106.82$106.82
2026-03-093,684$108.77$400,708.68
2026-02-11604$118.44$71,537.76
2026-02-093$116.71$350.13
2026-01-0227$108.59$2,931.93
2025-12-242,690$114.10$306,929
2025-12-2334$113.23$3,849.82
2025-12-014$114.00$456

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

Compare FSS to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.