FTDR (FTDR)

$3.8B
Market Cap
15.4
P/E Ratio
1.32
Beta
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 8/9Altman Z 3.5 SafeBeneish M -2.91 CleanROIC−WACC +8.1%

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 8/9, Altman Z 3.5 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold).

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Algorithmic Teardown

AI-Generated

The capital allocation efficiency for FTDR demonstrates robust fundamental quality, evidenced by an 18.9% return on invested capital that generates a substantial +8.1% spread over the weighted average cost of capital. This high-quality earnings generation is underpinned by exceptional profitability metrics, specifically a gross margin of 55.3% and a net margin of 12.2%, which drive returns without relying heavily on leverage or asset turnover acceleration. Creditworthiness appears strong with an Altman Z-Score of 3.5 indicating low bankruptcy risk, while the Beneish M-Score of -2.91 suggests earnings are likely free from manipulation. The Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 further corroborates a trajectory of financial improvement and operational stability, painting a picture of a business with durable competitive advantages and clean accounting practices.

Valuation metrics present a mixed signal relative to historical norms and intrinsic value models. The current P/E ratio of 15.4x requires comparison against sector averages and the company's own history to determine if it represents compression or expansion, though the market price appears significantly discounted compared to the calculated DCF fair value of $131 per share. This discrepancy implies that current pricing may not fully reflect the implied growth trajectory embedded in the cash flow model, potentially leaving room for re-rating as earnings quality is recognized by broader capital flows.

The risk-reward profile benefits from a strong defensive posture given the high Piotroski score and solid credit metrics, yet investors must weigh whether the market is appropriately pricing in future revenue growth of 13.5% YoY against potential downside risks not captured in static valuation models.

Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.

DCF Sandbox

Interactive

Sensitivity Matrix

TG ↓ / WACC →8.9%10.9%12.9%
2%$158$118$93
3%$182$131$100
4%$215$147$110

Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs .

Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $131 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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SMA 50 SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

8/9
Piotroski F-Score
Strong — high operational efficiency and profitability signals
3.5
Altman Z-Score
Safe Zone — above 3.0 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.
-2.91
Beneish M-Score
Below threshold — no statistical earnings quality concern per Beneish model. Threshold: <-2.22 = below threshold.

Profitability & Value Creation

55.3%
Gross Margin
12.2%
Net Margin
18.9%
ROIC
10.9%
WACC
ROIC − WACC Spread: +8.1%— Positive value creation spread.
+13.5%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+8.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
390.0M
Free Cash Flow

Balance Sheet Health

7.85x
Debt / Equity
1.55x
Current Ratio
5.3x
Interest Coverage
1.1x
Net Debt / EBITDA
8.89%
FCF Yield
506.0M
EBITDA

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✓ Beat
Est: $0.38
Act: $0.64
+69.5%
Q3
✓ Beat
Est: $1.45
Act: $1.63
+12.0%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $1.51
Act: $1.58
+4.6%
Q1
✓ Beat
Est: $0.13
Act: $0.23
+74.1%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

10.6
Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
15.48
Price/Book
608250
Avg Volume
$70.77
52W High
$35.61
52W Low
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$195M
Tracked Passive Exposure
7
ETFs Holding FTDR
0.11%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$174B
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like SLYG or SPSM, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell FTDR shares regardless of FTDR's individual fundamentals. We estimate $195M of passive capital is structurally linked to FTDR through 7 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on FTDR's daily trading dynamics.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 7 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in FTDR to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

FTDR Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
FTDREpicenterVXFETFVBKETFVTWOETFAMZNLow RiskTSLALow RiskHDLow RiskMCDLow RiskBELow Risk
FTDR Price Drop (%)0

If FTDR (FTDR) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with FTDR. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 7 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

FTDR Ownership Dynamics

Ticker
FTDR

Float lock-up computed from 7 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

FTDR Capital Efficiency

How efficiently does FTDR convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.

Free Cash Flow
$390M
EBITDA
$506M
FCF Conversion
77%
Reinvestment Rate
23%
77% of EBITDA → Free Cash
0% (cash burn)25% (low)50% (efficient)100% (pure cash)
ROIC
18.9%
ROIC − WACC Spread
8.1%

FTDR converts 77% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 8.1% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.

Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-05-141,082$62.64$67,776.48
2026-05-11508$64.62$32,826.96
2026-05-082,041$67.92$138,624.72
2026-05-073$66.12$198.36
2026-04-275$61.48$307.4
2026-04-201$62.14$62.14
2026-04-148$58.04$464.32
2026-03-3168$51.95$3,532.6
2026-03-3017$53.64$911.88
2026-03-279$55.84$502.56
2026-03-0517$67.90$1,154.3
2026-02-278$65.76$526.08
2025-12-295$58.61$293.05
2025-12-042,580$52.58$135,656.4
2025-11-1987$49.47$4,303.89
2025-11-1844$49.10$2,160.4
2025-11-1741$51.14$2,096.74
2025-11-0711$49.38$543.18

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

Compare FTDR to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.