HRMY (HRMY)

$1.6B
Market Cap
10.4
P/E Ratio
0.91
Beta
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 5/9Altman Z 4.5 SafeBeneish M -3.12 CleanROIC−WACC +7.9%

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 4.5.

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Algorithmic Teardown

AI-Generated

The capital allocation efficiency of HRMY demonstrates robust fundamental quality, evidenced by a 17.8% ROIC that significantly outperforms the weighted average cost of capital at 9.9%, generating a healthy +7.9% spread indicative of strong value creation potential. This return is primarily driven by exceptional profitability metrics rather than leverage or asset turnover; specifically, an 18.3% net margin and a commanding 77.2% gross margin suggest high pricing power within the business model. Financial integrity appears solid given a Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, while the Altman Z-Score of 4.5 places the firm in a safe zone regarding bankruptcy risk. Furthermore, the Beneish M-Score of -3.12 signals low probability of earnings manipulation, reinforcing confidence in the reported financials alongside consistent revenue growth of 21.5% year-over-year.

Valuation analysis presents a distinct divergence between current market pricing and intrinsic value estimates derived from discounted cash flow modeling. The stock currently trades at a P/E ratio of 10.4x, which appears compressed relative to its underlying earnings power given the high-margin profile and rapid growth trajectory. This discrepancy suggests the market may be pricing in conservative assumptions or sector-wide headwinds that do not fully reflect the company's specific operational advantages. The DCF model implies a fair value of $226 per share; without knowing the current trading price, this figure serves as an anchor for assessing whether the existing multiple adequately compensates investors for the risk-free rate plus the 7.9% spread generated by the firm's capital efficiency.

Risk assessment reveals a mixed picture where strong profitability metrics coexist with moderate financial stability indicators. While the low Beneish M-Score mitigates concerns regarding earnings quality, the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicates that while the balance sheet is healthy, there may be areas of operational weakness or declining fundamentals compared to peers, as a perfect score would reflect improvement across all nine criteria. The combination of high gross margins and significant revenue expansion supports the DCF valuation premise, yet investors must weigh these growth drivers against the potential for margin compression if competitive dynamics shift in an unknown sector environment where historical P/E comparisons are unavailable.

Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.

DCF Sandbox

Interactive

Sensitivity Matrix

TG ↓ / WACC →7.9%9.9%11.9%
2%$275$203$161
3%$322$226$174
4%$392$257$191

Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs .

Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $226 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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SMA 50 SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

5/9
Piotroski F-Score
Average — mixed operational signals
4.5
Altman Z-Score
Safe Zone — above 3.0 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.
-3.12
Beneish M-Score
Below threshold — no statistical earnings quality concern per Beneish model. Threshold: <-2.22 = below threshold.

Profitability & Value Creation

77.2%
Gross Margin
18.3%
Net Margin
17.8%
ROIC
9.9%
WACC
ROIC − WACC Spread: +7.9%— Positive value creation spread.
+21.5%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+9.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
347.9M
Free Cash Flow

Balance Sheet Health

0.46x
Debt / Equity
3.60x
Current Ratio
15.7x
Interest Coverage
-2.4x
Net Debt / EBITDA
34.01%
FCF Yield
255.0M
EBITDA

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✓ Beat
Est: $0.91
Act: $1.03
+12.7%
Q3
✗ Miss
Est: $0.96
Act: $0.92
-3.7%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $0.86
Act: $1.08
+25.4%
Q1
✗ Miss
Est: $1.07
Act: $0.57
-46.5%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

4.9
Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
1.87
Price/Book
881436
Avg Volume
$40.87
52W High
$25.52
52W Low
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$47M
Tracked Passive Exposure
8
ETFs Holding HRMY
0.05%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$90B
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like XPH or SLYG, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell HRMY shares regardless of HRMY's individual fundamentals. We estimate $47M of passive capital is structurally linked to HRMY through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on HRMY's daily trading dynamics.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in HRMY to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

HRMY Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
HRMYEpicenterVBKETFVHTETFSPSMETFCORTLow RiskOGNHigh RiskLQDAUnknownINDVUnknownAXSMUnknown
HRMY Price Drop (%)0

If HRMY (HRMY) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INC (CORT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with HRMY. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 8 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

HRMY Ownership Dynamics

Ticker
HRMY

Float lock-up computed from 8 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

HRMY Capital Efficiency

How efficiently does HRMY convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.

Free Cash Flow
$348M
EBITDA
$255M
FCF Conversion
136%
Reinvestment Rate
-36%
136% of EBITDA → Free Cash
0% (cash burn)25% (low)50% (efficient)100% (pure cash)
ROIC
17.8%
ROIC − WACC Spread
7.9%

HRMY converts 136% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 7.9% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.

Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-05-0583$32.59$2,704.97
2026-04-27107$30.80$3,295.6
2026-04-225$32.14$160.7
2026-04-2017$29.99$509.83
2026-03-25240$27.10$6,504
2026-03-2320$27.72$554.4
2026-02-263,987$28.19$112,393.53
2026-02-092,288$37.27$85,273.76
2026-02-059$37.32$335.88
2026-01-051,883$37.38$70,386.54
2025-12-3036$37.91$1,364.76
2025-12-233,278$38.86$127,383.08
2025-12-22404$37.81$15,275.24
2025-12-16164$38.92$6,382.88
2025-11-24173$34.31$5,935.63
2025-11-209$33.31$299.79
2025-11-199$33.99$305.91
2025-11-136,500$33.54$218,010
2025-11-0422,600$29.33$662,858
2025-11-0322,600$28.57$645,682

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

Compare HRMY to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.