MMSI (MMSI)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 3.8 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold).
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe company's capital allocation efficiency is currently compromised, as evidenced by an ROIC of 6.4% falling below the cost of equity at 7.9%, resulting in a negative -1.5% spread that suggests value destruction despite solid operational metrics. While the high gross margin of 48.7% and net margin of 8.5% indicate strong pricing power or product mix, these profitability drivers appear insufficient to offset capital costs when combined with the observed revenue growth rate of 11.8%. Financial integrity remains robust according to the Beneish M-Score of -2.72, which signals low earnings manipulation risk, yet the Altman Z-Score of 3.8 places the firm in a marginal zone regarding bankruptcy probability, suggesting liquidity constraints may be present even if solvency is not immediately threatened.
Valuation appears stretched relative to implied growth potential and intrinsic value estimates. The current P/E ratio of 32.1x commands a premium that exceeds typical benchmarks for firms with sub-par ROIC-WACC spreads, implying the market is pricing in aggressive future margin expansion or leverage increases rather than relying on current capital efficiency. This disconnect between the high multiple and the DCF-derived fair value of $180 suggests significant downside risk if growth assumptions fail to materialize or if operating leverage does not improve the return profile sufficiently to justify the cost of capital.
The Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicates strong fundamental health and momentum, yet this score must be weighed against the negative ROIC-WACC spread which acts as a headwind on shareholder value creation. The divergence between high profitability margins and inefficient capital returns creates an asymmetric risk profile where earnings quality is supported by financial scores but undermined by capital structure inefficiencies. Investors must determine whether the current valuation premium adequately compensates for the drag on absolute returns caused by operating below the hurdle rate, or if the strong F-Score momentum will eventually drive operational improvements that narrow this spread.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
InteractiveSensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.9% | 9.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $233 | $152 | $110 |
| 3% | $305 | $180 | $123 |
| 4% | $449 | $222 | $142 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs —.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $180 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XHE or SLY, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell MMSI shares regardless of MMSI's individual fundamentals. We estimate $139M of passive capital is structurally linked to MMSI through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on MMSI's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in MMSI to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If MMSI (MMSI) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies GLAUKOS CORP (GKOS) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 4 ETFs with MMSI. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 9 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
MMSI Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest MMSI Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 8 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
MMSI Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does MMSI convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
MMSI converts 64% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-1.5%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | 351 | $68.58 | $24,071.58 |
| 2026-04-24 | 2,418 | $68.61 | $165,898.98 |
| 2026-04-17 | 71 | $70.10 | $4,977.1 |
| 2026-04-16 | 900 | $70.73 | $63,657 |
| 2026-04-15 | 2 | $70.54 | $141.08 |
| 2026-04-13 | 901 | $68.26 | $61,502.26 |
| 2026-04-01 | 1,508 | $68.93 | $103,946.44 |
| 2026-03-31 | 236 | $68.64 | $16,199.04 |
| 2026-03-23 | 14 | $66.71 | $933.94 |
| 2026-03-17 | 159 | $69.17 | $10,998.03 |
| 2026-03-13 | 31,330 | $68.17 | $2.1M |
| 2026-03-10 | 6,279 | $71.88 | $451,334.52 |
| 2026-03-05 | 5,430 | $74.16 | $402,688.8 |
| 2026-02-19 | 28,327 | $82.98 | $2.4M |
| 2026-02-17 | 921 | $81.66 | $75,208.86 |
| 2026-02-12 | 9 | $81.29 | $731.61 |
| 2026-02-09 | 20 | $82.50 | $1,650 |
| 2026-02-04 | 4 | $80.49 | $321.96 |
| 2026-01-13 | 9 | $83.25 | $749.25 |
| 2026-01-05 | 3 | $86.45 | $259.35 |
| 2025-12-26 | 15 | $87.39 | $1,310.85 |
| 2025-12-22 | 3 | $87.70 | $263.1 |
| 2025-12-17 | 99 | $86.85 | $8,598.15 |
| 2025-12-10 | 2,983 | $83.39 | $248,752.37 |
| 2025-12-08 | 398 | $83.43 | $33,205.14 |
| 2025-12-03 | 12 | $84.39 | $1,012.68 |
| 2025-11-26 | 3 | $87.60 | $262.8 |
| 2025-11-19 | 447 | $84.17 | $37,623.99 |
| 2025-11-17 | 35,117 | $85.09 | $3.0M |
| 2025-11-12 | 5 | $89.39 | $446.95 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare MMSI to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.