MYRG (MYRG)

$4.1B
Market Cap
35.3
P/E Ratio
1.11
Beta
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 7/9Altman Z 5.7 SafeBeneish M -3.27 CleanROIC−WACC +4.0%

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

Financial health metrics are strong: Piotroski 7/9, Altman Z 5.7 (above 3.0 safe zone threshold).

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

Algorithmic Teardown

AI-Generated

The fundamental economics of MYRG demonstrate a robust capital allocation framework, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of +4.0%, indicating that the firm generates returns exceeding its cost of capital. This efficiency is underpinned by strong financial health metrics; a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 signals superior operational stability and balance sheet quality, while an Altman Z-Score of 5.7 suggests a low probability of distress. Furthermore, the Beneish M-Score of -3.27 points to minimal earnings manipulation risks. However, the DuPont decomposition reveals that profitability is constrained by thin margins, with net returns at just 3.2% and gross margins compressing to 11.6%, despite revenue growing at an 8.8% annualized rate. This divergence suggests growth is currently being achieved through volume rather than margin expansion or significant leverage effects.

Valuation metrics present a notable discrepancy between market pricing and intrinsic value models. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 35.3x, which appears elevated relative to the implied growth trajectory if one considers current profitability levels. Conversely, DCF analysis assigns a fair value of $430 per share, implying that the market may be discounting future cash flows more aggressively than the model assumes or pricing in lower long-term sustainability given the modest margin profile. Whether this premium is justified depends on whether investors believe management can successfully convert revenue growth into higher net margins over time to support such a multiple.

No risk factor deltas, insider activity data, or Fama-French alpha statistics were provided for this analysis; therefore, no synthesis of specific short-term catalysts or style-based performance drivers relative to the broader market is possible based on the available information.

Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.

DCF Sandbox

Interactive

Sensitivity Matrix

TG ↓ / WACC →9.6%11.6%13.6%
2%$509$394$320
3%$573$430$342
4%$659$476$370

Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs .

Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.6%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $430 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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SMA 50 SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

7/9
Piotroski F-Score
Strong — high operational efficiency and profitability signals
5.7
Altman Z-Score
Safe Zone — above 3.0 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.
-3.27
Beneish M-Score
Below threshold — no statistical earnings quality concern per Beneish model. Threshold: <-2.22 = below threshold.

Profitability & Value Creation

11.6%
Gross Margin
3.2%
Net Margin
15.5%
ROIC
11.6%
WACC
ROIC − WACC Spread: +4.0%— Positive spread.
+8.8%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+291.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
232.2M
Free Cash Flow

Balance Sheet Health

1.49x
Debt / Equity
1.33x
Current Ratio
29.6x
Interest Coverage
-0.4x
Net Debt / EBITDA
5.76%
FCF Yield
233.4M
EBITDA

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✓ Beat
Est: $1.20
Act: $1.45
+21.0%
Q3
✓ Beat
Est: $1.52
Act: $1.70
+12.1%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $1.92
Act: $2.05
+7.0%
Q1
✓ Beat
Est: $1.86
Act: $2.33
+25.5%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

24.8
Forward P/E
PEG Ratio
6.24
Price/Book
243869
Avg Volume
$290.87
52W High
$97.72
52W Low
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$193M
Tracked Passive Exposure
7
ETFs Holding MYRG
0.14%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$136B
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like SLYG or SPSM, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell MYRG shares regardless of MYRG's individual fundamentals. We estimate $193M of passive capital is structurally linked to MYRG through 7 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on MYRG's daily trading dynamics.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 7 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in MYRG to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

MYRG Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
MYRGEpicenterVXFETFVTWOETFSPSMETFCATLow RiskGELow RiskGEVLow RiskRTXMed RiskTTLow Risk
MYRG Price Drop (%)0

If MYRG (MYRG) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with MYRG. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 7 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

MYRG Ownership Dynamics

Ticker
MYRG

Float lock-up computed from 7 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

MYRG Capital Efficiency

How efficiently does MYRG convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.

Free Cash Flow
$232M
EBITDA
$233M
FCF Conversion
99%
Reinvestment Rate
1%
99% of EBITDA → Free Cash
0% (cash burn)25% (low)50% (efficient)100% (pure cash)
ROIC
15.5%
ROIC − WACC Spread
4.0%

MYRG converts 99% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 4.0% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.

Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-05-1438$467.97$17,782.86
2026-05-041,399$433.49$606,452.51
2026-05-01956$404.81$386,998.36
2026-04-284,274$346.37$1.5M
2026-04-2163$332.14$20,924.82
2026-03-304$273.47$1,093.88
2026-03-24120$274.39$32,926.8
2026-03-0943$260.90$11,218.7
2026-02-1344$267.81$11,783.64
2026-02-04463$263.96$122,213.48
2026-01-1375$225.99$16,949.25
2026-01-0949$221.80$10,868.2
2025-12-191,505$216.64$326,043.2
2025-12-127$226.32$1,584.24
2025-11-2164$204.45$13,084.8
2025-11-201,454$216.41$314,660.14
2025-11-17571$229.44$131,010.24
2025-11-04139$227.46$31,616.94

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

Compare MYRG to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.