RDN (RDN)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 2.2.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe capital allocation efficiency of this entity presents a distinct dichotomy between high profitability and modest asset generation. While the DuPont decomposition reveals an exceptional net margin of 48.7%, driving overall ROE to 12.2% through significant financial leverage rather than operational scale, the return on invested capital sits at merely 8.3%. This gap suggests that while earnings per share are robust due to low asset turnover, the underlying economic moat may be narrower than the headline margin implies. The Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 further contextualizes this profile as a mixed fundamental picture, lacking the strong momentum typically associated with high-quality compounders, even as revenue remains relatively stable despite minor year-over-year contraction.
Valuation metrics suggest the market is pricing in significant downside risk relative to intrinsic value models. Trading at a current P/E of 7.5x, which appears depressed compared to typical quality standards given the margin profile, the stock trades below its calculated DCF fair value of $3. This discrepancy indicates that investors are likely discounting future cash flows heavily due to concerns over the negative revenue trajectory and limited growth prospects inherent in a low asset turnover model. The market consensus seems anchored by fears of stagnation rather than an appreciation for the company's pricing power, creating a valuation environment where upside potential is theoretically capped unless fundamental drivers like leverage or margins materially improve.
Risk assessment data points to a neutral insider stance with zero flow over the last 90 days, offering no clear signal of management conviction regarding future catalysts. Without additional risk factors such as Fama-French alpha exposure or specific sector volatility metrics provided in this dataset, the investment case rests entirely on whether the current low multiple adequately compensates for the lack of growth and mediocre ROIC spread. The absence of insider activity combined with a sub-9% return on capital suggests that the primary value driver is the margin expansion rather than scalable business growth, requiring careful scrutiny of sustainability before assuming further upside.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
InteractiveSensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6.5% | 8.5% | 10.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $5 | $2 | $0 |
| 3% | $8 | $3 | $0 |
| 4% | $13 | $4 | $1 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs —.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=8.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $3 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
⚠️ Dividend consumes >80% of FCF — sustainability risk.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like KBE or SLYG, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell RDN shares regardless of RDN's individual fundamentals. We estimate $247M of passive capital is structurally linked to RDN through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on RDN's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in RDN to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If RDN (RDN) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies SEMTECH CORP (SMTC) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with RDN. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 11 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
RDN Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest RDN Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 11 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
RDN Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does RDN convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
RDN converts 13% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a low conversion rate suggesting heavy reinvestment. This may indicate a growth phase (building capacity) or structural capital intensity. The 87% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-0.1%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | 710 | $35.43 | $25,155.3 |
| 2026-04-23 | 595 | $35.58 | $21,170.1 |
| 2026-04-13 | 5,300 | $34.17 | $181,101 |
| 2026-04-07 | 30 | $33.97 | $1,019.1 |
| 2026-03-26 | 1 | $32.97 | $32.97 |
| 2026-03-23 | 96,425 | $32.47 | $3.1M |
| 2026-03-18 | 2,290 | $33.06 | $75,707.4 |
| 2026-02-27 | 34 | $35.32 | $1,200.88 |
| 2026-02-18 | 120 | $32.73 | $3,927.6 |
| 2026-02-04 | 11 | $32.72 | $359.92 |
| 2026-01-05 | 47 | $35.92 | $1,688.24 |
| 2025-12-10 | 389 | $34.36 | $13,366.04 |
| 2025-12-08 | 1,416 | $34.73 | $49,177.68 |
| 2025-10-31 | 117 | $33.75 | $3,948.75 |
| 2025-10-29 | 1 | $33.39 | $33.39 |
| 2025-10-14 | 1,979 | $33.35 | $65,999.65 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare RDN to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.