SMCI (SMCI)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 4.1.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of the business are characterized by a robust asset efficiency profile, evidenced by an ROE of 16.6% driven primarily by high asset turnover at 1.57x rather than leverage or margin expansion. This operational velocity is supported by accelerating top-line growth of 46.6% year-over-yoer and healthy gross margins of 11.1%, though the net margin compression to 4.8% suggests rising operating costs relative to revenue scale. Creditworthiness appears stable with a Beneish M-Score of -2.45 indicating low earnings manipulation risk, while the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 reflects moderate financial strength without extreme distress signals; however, the ROIC-WACC spread remains unquantifiable as WACC data is absent from the provided metrics.
Valuation currently sits at a P/E multiple of 15.8x, which requires contextualization against sector peers to determine if it represents a discount or premium given the company's high-growth trajectory and positive insider flow neutrality over the last quarter. A DCF model implies an intrinsic value of $24, suggesting that current market pricing may be divergent from this calculated fair value depending on whether the implied growth assumptions align with the observed 46.6% revenue expansion. The market appears to be weighing the high turnover efficiency and strong top-line momentum against the modest net margin environment, resulting in a valuation multiple that does not immediately reflect extreme overvaluation but lacks sufficient comparative data for definitive positioning.
Risk assessment remains incomplete without sector-specific beta or Fama-French alpha figures, leaving the risk-reward profile partially undefined despite the neutral insider activity which neither signals aggressive accumulation nor distribution. The combination of low manipulation scores and solid turnover offers a degree of fundamental stability, yet investors must evaluate whether the 46.6% growth rate is sustainable given the thin net margins before concluding on long-term viability relative to the $24 fair value estimate.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
InteractiveSensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 9.3% | 11.3% | 13.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $27 | $22 | $18 |
| 3% | $30 | $24 | $19 |
| 4% | $35 | $26 | $21 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs —.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=11.3%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $24 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like ONEO or VOT, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell SMCI shares regardless of SMCI's individual fundamentals. We estimate $1.8B of passive capital is structurally linked to SMCI through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in SMCI to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If SMCI (SMCI) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NVIDIA CORP (NVDA) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with SMCI. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 24 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
SMCI Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest SMCI Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 26 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
SMCI Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does SMCI convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
SMCI converts 115% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.7%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 6,795 | $32.00 | $217,440 |
| 2026-05-13 | 5,170 | $32.79 | $169,524.3 |
| 2026-05-12 | 391 | $33.52 | $13,106.32 |
| 2026-05-11 | 14,800 | $35.37 | $523,476 |
| 2026-05-08 | 43,597 | $33.62 | $1.5M |
| 2026-05-07 | 122,903 | $34.66 | $4.3M |
| 2026-05-06 | 71,674 | $27.83 | $2.0M |
| 2026-05-04 | 11,214 | $27.09 | $303,787.26 |
| 2026-05-01 | 13,285 | $27.40 | $364,009 |
| 2026-04-27 | 3,300 | $29.08 | $95,964 |
| 2026-04-23 | 17,587 | $29.18 | $513,188.66 |
| 2026-04-21 | 141,970 | $28.81 | $4.1M |
| 2026-04-20 | 1,108,632 | $28.56 | $31.7M |
| 2026-04-17 | 63,913 | $28.40 | $1.8M |
| 2026-04-15 | 133,689 | $27.20 | $3.6M |
| 2026-04-13 | 90,561 | $25.26 | $2.3M |
| 2026-04-10 | 508 | $23.22 | $11,795.76 |
| 2026-04-09 | 327,999 | $23.37 | $7.7M |
| 2026-04-08 | 366,358 | $22.67 | $8.3M |
| 2026-04-07 | 532,385 | $22.05 | $11.7M |
| 2026-04-06 | 741,917 | $23.22 | $17.2M |
| 2026-04-02 | 369,236 | $22.51 | $8.3M |
| 2026-04-01 | 545,938 | $22.77 | $12.4M |
| 2026-03-31 | 97,098 | $21.06 | $2.0M |
| 2026-03-30 | 147,156 | $21.97 | $3.2M |
| 2026-03-27 | 6,312 | $22.21 | $140,189.52 |
| 2026-03-26 | 1,013,321 | $24.05 | $24.4M |
| 2026-03-25 | 29,815 | $22.23 | $662,787.45 |
| 2026-03-23 | 555,455 | $20.53 | $11.4M |
| 2026-03-20 | 173,280 | $30.79 | $5.3M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare SMCI to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.