Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAKAM trades at 50.5x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 65.0x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9, Altman Z 2.3. DCF fair value of $65 implies 32% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of Akamai Technologies reveal a capital allocation challenge, evidenced by an ROIC-WACC spread of -3.4%, indicating that the firm is currently destroying value relative to its cost of equity. Despite a DuPont-decomposed Return on Equity of 9.1% driven primarily by leverage (Equity Multiplier of 2.31x) rather than operational efficiency, as asset turnover sits at only 0.37x, quality metrics present a mixed signal. While the Beneish M-Score of -2.83 suggests low earnings manipulation risk and the Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 indicates moderate financial strength, the Altman Z-Score of 2.5 places the company in the grey zone for potential distress. This structural inefficiency is further highlighted by a Profitability Factor (RMW) alpha of -0.543, signaling that recent profitability trends have underperformed relative to its sector peers despite maintaining healthy gross margins near 59%.
Valuation metrics suggest significant downside pressure when compared against intrinsic value models and historical benchmarks. Trading at a P/E multiple of 38.4x, the stock appears cheaper than the broader technology sector average of 56.8x; however, this relative discount is not supported by growth expectations or cash flow generation. A DCF analysis implies a fair value of $54, translating to an estimated -52.6% downside from current levels based on an assumed ten-year free cash flow growth rate of just 7.7%. This divergence suggests the market may be pricing in higher growth trajectories than what discounted cash flow models currently support, creating a valuation gap that warrants scrutiny before assuming undervaluation.
Risk factors and factor-based performance data introduce additional complexity to the investment thesis. Although the stock exhibits strong momentum characteristics with an annual Fama-French Alpha of 6.19%, this outperformance is partially offset by a Value Factor (HML) alpha of -0.622, confirming its classification as a pure growth tilt with limited value protection. Compounding these fundamental headwinds, insider activity over the last ninety days shows net selling totaling $12,394,373, which often signals management caution regarding near-term prospects or liquidity needs. The convergence of negative capital returns, weak profitability factor scores, and notable insider distribution presents a cautious risk-reward profile that investors must weigh against its defensive gross margins.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 5% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 6% | 7.5% | 9.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $79 | $52 | $33 |
| 3% | $107 | $65 | $39 |
| 4% | $163 | $85 | $47 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $160.32.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=7.5%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $65 (-31.7%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 5% above its 5-year average P/E of 28.4x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedThe current price of Akamai Technologies at $147.23 sits within a context where short-term moving averages appear to be converging with longer-term trends, potentially signaling a period of consolidation or indecision among larger market participants. While specific crossover events are not explicitly detailed in the provided snapshot, the proximity of these indicators often suggests that institutional capital may be pausing accumulation or distribution activities to reassess valuation levels relative to recent performance. This alignment can sometimes precede a directional shift as major players gauge whether current support holds against upward momentum or if resistance will cap further gains near this price point. Volume analysis in such scenarios typically serves as the critical filter for distinguishing between passive holding and active positioning by sophisticated investors. If trading activity remains subdued while prices hover around $147.23, it may indicate that large entities are waiting for a clearer catalyst before committing significant capital either way. Conversely, any sudden spike in volume without an immediate price breakout could imply that institutional sellers or buyers are aggressively repositioning their portfolios based on sector-wide developments rather than stock-specific fundamentals alone. The absence of definitive trend lines in the limited data suggests that larger players might be managing risk exposure carefully, balancing potential upside from technology sector growth against broader market volatility concerns before making decisive moves.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like CLOU or ONEV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell AKAM shares regardless of Akamai Technologies, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $1.8B of passive capital is structurally linked to AKAM through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Akamai Technologies, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. (25402D102) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with AKAM. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 22 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
AKAM Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 AKAM shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 6.7% of the CLOU (CLOU) and 0.7% of the ONEV (ONEV). Across 24 tracked ETFs, approximately 24M shares (16.3% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest AKAM Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 24 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
AKAM Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Akamai Technologies, Inc. over the past year sits near $76.95 (17% of 252-day volume). The current price of $160.32 trades 108.3% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (17% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
AKAM Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does Akamai Technologies, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
Akamai Technologies, Inc. converts 52% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a healthy conversion rate indicating efficient capital management — the business generates substantial cash after reinvestment. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-2.7%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | 18,977 | $153.01 | $2.9M |
| 2026-05-11 | 2,100 | $147.71 | $310,191 |
| 2026-05-08 | 2 | $116.69 | $233.38 |
| 2026-05-06 | 1,151 | $117.94 | $135,748.94 |
| 2026-05-05 | 1,480 | $105.78 | $156,554.4 |
| 2026-05-01 | 31,000 | $102.98 | $3.2M |
| 2026-04-30 | 78 | $99.80 | $7,784.4 |
| 2026-04-29 | 1,371 | $95.43 | $130,834.53 |
| 2026-04-28 | 5 | $95.93 | $479.65 |
| 2026-04-27 | 102 | $95.25 | $9,715.5 |
| 2026-04-21 | 2,454 | $97.62 | $239,559.48 |
| 2026-04-20 | 869,930 | $95.89 | $83.4M |
| 2026-04-17 | 2,776 | $96.81 | $268,744.56 |
| 2026-04-16 | 1 | $90.38 | $90.38 |
| 2026-04-14 | 41,147 | $94.94 | $3.9M |
| 2026-04-10 | 114 | $109.61 | $12,495.54 |
| 2026-04-09 | 365 | $116.00 | $42,340 |
| 2026-04-08 | 21,531 | $113.89 | $2.5M |
| 2026-04-07 | 8 | $114.60 | $916.8 |
| 2026-04-02 | 272 | $115.75 | $31,484 |
| 2026-03-31 | 677 | $110.22 | $74,618.94 |
| 2026-03-27 | 221 | $117.25 | $25,912.25 |
| 2026-03-25 | 14 | $114.50 | $1,603 |
| 2026-03-24 | 8,821 | $114.43 | $1.0M |
| 2026-03-23 | 2,300 | $110.48 | $254,104 |
| 2026-03-17 | 128 | $105.44 | $13,496.32 |
| 2026-03-16 | 22,477 | $107.67 | $2.4M |
| 2026-03-04 | 208 | $102.08 | $21,232.64 |
| 2026-03-03 | 29,397 | $97.64 | $2.9M |
| 2026-03-02 | 7,154 | $98.39 | $703,882.06 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| FSLY | 0.507 | 0.503 | Moderate |
| S | 0.488 | 0.481 | Moderate |
| NET | 0.419 | 0.481 | Moderate |
| OKTA | 0.406 | 0.395 | Moderate |
| TENB | 0.405 | 0.336 | Moderate |
| NDSN | 0.383 | 0.312 | Moderate |
| RDWR | 0.380 | 0.368 | Moderate |
| CRWD | 0.371 | 0.360 | Moderate |
| SNOW | 0.355 | 0.369 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare AKAM to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.