Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicFinancial health is average: Piotroski 4/9.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $62 | $47 | $37 |
| 3% | $72 | $51 | $40 |
| 4% | $87 | $58 | $44 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $61.84.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $51 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XSD or VTWO, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell AMBA shares regardless of Ambarella, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $159M of passive capital is structurally linked to AMBA through 4 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on AMBA's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 4 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Ambarella, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with AMBA. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 4 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
AMBA Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 15 AMBA shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Ambarella, Inc. (AMBA) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 2.6% of the XSD (XSD) and 0.1% of the VTWO (VTWO). Across 4 tracked ETFs, approximately 3M shares (6.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest AMBA Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 4 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
AMBA Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Ambarella, Inc. over the past year sits near $71.29 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $61.84 sits 13.3% below the POC — suggesting potential mean-reversion upside if institutional demand reasserts at this level.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | 110 | $63.52 | $6,987.2 |
| 2026-06-05 | 16,507 | $72.05 | $1.2M |
| 2026-05-26 | 242 | $87.55 | $21,187.1 |
| 2026-05-13 | 12,455 | $78.19 | $973,856.45 |
| 2026-05-08 | 49,772 | $74.27 | $3.7M |
| 2026-05-07 | 49,807 | $75.48 | $3.8M |
| 2026-04-27 | 71 | $66.87 | $4,747.77 |
| 2026-04-15 | 25 | $56.20 | $1,405 |
| 2026-04-01 | 257 | $51.48 | $13,230.36 |
| 2026-03-27 | 576 | $52.67 | $30,337.92 |
| 2026-03-20 | 171 | $55.86 | $9,552.06 |
| 2026-03-04 | 78 | $57.45 | $4,481.1 |
| 2026-03-03 | 330 | $61.04 | $20,143.2 |
| 2026-03-02 | 1,953 | $60.34 | $117,844.02 |
| 2026-02-12 | 11 | $66.87 | $735.57 |
| 2026-02-06 | 53 | $59.45 | $3,150.85 |
| 2026-01-12 | 734 | $69.25 | $50,829.5 |
| 2025-12-30 | 77 | $70.07 | $5,395.39 |
| 2025-12-22 | 1,000 | $72.52 | $72,520 |
| 2025-12-17 | 20 | $71.98 | $1,439.6 |
| 2025-12-04 | 5,419 | $70.11 | $379,926.09 |
| 2025-12-03 | 10,682 | $71.09 | $759,383.38 |
| 2025-12-02 | 15,362 | $70.92 | $1.1M |
| 2025-11-24 | 1,238 | $86.14 | $106,641.32 |
| 2025-11-17 | 1,726 | $87.84 | $151,611.84 |
| 2025-11-13 | 6 | $95.51 | $573.06 |
| 2025-11-12 | 35,775 | $93.53 | $3.3M |
| 2025-11-06 | 108 | $86.50 | $9,342 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| GVMXX | NaN | NaN | |
| MGMXX | NaN | NaN | |
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| KYG037AX1015 | 0.999 | 0.998 | High co-movement |
| MPWR | 0.538 | 0.593 | Moderate |
| ALGM | 0.528 | 0.591 | Moderate |
| LRCX | 0.517 | 0.558 | Moderate |
| TSM | 0.500 | 0.529 | Moderate |
| RMBS | 0.497 | 0.584 | Moderate |
| PENG | 0.484 | 0.572 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare AMBA to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-07-17.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.