ArcBest Corporation (ARCB)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicARCB trades at 56.0x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 44.7x. Below-average fundamentals indicated by Piotroski score of 3/9.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of ArcBest Corporation reveal a significant divergence between capital efficiency and profitability, characterized by a negative ROIC-WACC spread of -8.9%. This indicates that the company is currently destroying value relative to its cost of capital, as returns on invested capital at 4.2% fall well short of the required hurdle rate of 13.1%. While the DuPont components are not explicitly broken out into margin and turnover drivers here, the net margin compression to 1.5% against a gross margin of 6.9% suggests operational pressure in translating revenue into bottom-line earnings. Financial health metrics present a mixed picture: the Altman Z-Score of 3.7 signals a moderate safety buffer above bankruptcy distress thresholds, yet the low Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 highlights weak financial strength and deteriorating fundamentals compared to peer standards.
Valuation metrics display a notable discrepancy between current market pricing and intrinsic value estimates derived from discounted cash flow analysis. The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 35.3x, which sits meaningfully below the sector average of 45.7x, suggesting relative valuation compression within the Industrials space. However, this discount appears misaligned with the underlying capital destruction implied by the negative ROIC spread; instead, it aligns closely with a DCF fair value estimate of $29 per share. This implies that while the market is not pricing in exorbitant multiples compared to peers, it may be failing to fully account for the risk premium associated with declining revenue growth of -4.0% and subpar capital allocation efficiency.
Risk assessment further complicates the investment thesis through conflicting signals regarding management integrity versus solvency. The Beneish M-Score of -2.76 points toward low earnings manipulation risk, providing some confidence in reported figures despite the poor Piotroski score. Conversely, the combination of negative revenue growth and a wide gap between actual returns and the cost of capital creates an elevated downside scenario where future cash flows may struggle to justify current equity valuations without significant operational turnaround or strategic restructuring.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 11.1% | 13.1% | 15.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $33 | $27 | $23 |
| 3% | $36 | $29 | $24 |
| 4% | $40 | $31 | $25 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $141.85.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=13.1%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $29 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedArcBest Corporation is currently trading at $118.70, presenting a specific snapshot of its relative valuation within the broader technical framework. Without explicit data regarding the immediate Simple Moving Average (SMA) envelope boundaries or recent volatility bands, a precise assessment of mean-reversion potential cannot be mathematically quantified in this instance. The current price level exists as an isolated data point; determining whether it represents a statistical deviation from historical norms requires knowledge of the surrounding average trends and standard deviations that define the trading range. In the absence of defined envelope parameters, observers must evaluate how this $118.70 figure aligns with longer-term moving averages to gauge potential support or resistance zones. If future analysis reveals the price is significantly distant from its central tendency, it might suggest a higher probability of reverting toward the mean, whereas proximity could indicate consolidation around established values. The sector classification as Industrials provides context for macroeconomic influences but does not alter the intrinsic mechanics of relative value calculation at this specific moment. Ultimately, the technical setup remains incomplete without additional metrics defining the SMA envelope's upper and lower limits. Traders analyzing this profile would need to integrate further data points to determine if the current price action signals an overextended condition ripe for correction or a stable equilibrium within normal parameters. The factual observation is simply that $118.70 is the present market valuation, awaiting comparison against dynamic averages to fully assess its position relative to historical norms and potential future movements.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | $0.1200 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-10 | $0.1200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-14 | $0.1200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-08 | $0.1200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-09 | $0.1200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-11 | $0.1200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-13 | $0.1200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-13 | $0.1200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-09 | $0.1200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-15 | $0.1200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-07 | $0.1200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-08 | $0.1200 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XTN or SLYV, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ARCB shares regardless of ArcBest Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $99M of passive capital is structurally linked to ARCB through 7 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on ARCB's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 7 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in ArcBest Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies RXO INC (RXO) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 3 ETFs with ARCB. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 7 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ARCB Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 26 ARCB shares, reducing daily market volatility.
ArcBest Corporation (ARCB) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.1% of the XTN (XTN) and 0.3% of the SLYV (SLYV). Across 7 tracked ETFs, approximately 1M shares (3.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest ARCB Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 7 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ARCB Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for ArcBest Corporation over the past year sits near $73.94 (17% of 252-day volume). The current price of $141.85 trades 91.8% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (17% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
ARCB Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does ArcBest Corporation convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
ArcBest Corporation converts 38% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, a moderate conversion rate — significant EBITDA is consumed by capital expenditures, working capital changes, or interest payments. The 62% reinvestment rate signals aggressive capacity expansion. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-8.9%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 597 | $127.06 | $75,854.82 |
| 2026-04-27 | 4 | $122.50 | $490 |
| 2026-04-23 | 201 | $118.45 | $23,808.45 |
| 2026-04-15 | 1,243 | $110.16 | $136,928.88 |
| 2026-04-10 | 47 | $109.22 | $5,133.34 |
| 2026-03-31 | 20 | $93.45 | $1,869 |
| 2026-03-24 | 3 | $92.03 | $276.09 |
| 2026-03-23 | 327 | $87.58 | $28,638.66 |
| 2026-03-20 | 169 | $89.26 | $15,084.94 |
| 2026-02-10 | 3 | $108.68 | $326.04 |
| 2026-02-09 | 22 | $111.96 | $2,463.12 |
| 2026-02-06 | 3,453 | $109.65 | $378,621.45 |
| 2026-02-05 | 126 | $109.55 | $13,803.3 |
| 2026-02-03 | 6,687 | $99.75 | $667,028.25 |
| 2026-01-20 | 1,142 | $90.55 | $103,408.1 |
| 2026-01-14 | 4 | $87.51 | $350.04 |
| 2026-01-13 | 76 | $87.80 | $6,672.8 |
| 2026-01-12 | 3,794 | $87.57 | $332,240.58 |
| 2026-01-09 | 119 | $86.74 | $10,322.06 |
| 2026-01-07 | 5 | $86.51 | $432.55 |
| 2026-01-05 | 3 | $77.17 | $231.51 |
| 2025-12-31 | 788 | $75.50 | $59,494 |
| 2025-12-19 | 106 | $80.47 | $8,529.82 |
| 2025-12-18 | 20 | $79.52 | $1,590.4 |
| 2025-12-16 | 2,691 | $77.19 | $207,718.29 |
| 2025-12-08 | 1,768 | $71.19 | $125,863.92 |
| 2025-12-05 | 54,631 | $69.55 | $3.8M |
| 2025-12-04 | 62,573 | $68.62 | $4.3M |
| 2025-12-02 | 4 | $65.63 | $262.52 |
| 2025-11-10 | 1 | $66.99 | $66.99 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare ARCB to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.