A10 Networks, Inc. (ATEN)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicATEN trades at 49.4x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 65.0x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 3.9. DCF fair value of $21 implies 16% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedThe fundamental economics of A10 Networks reveal a tension between robust operational efficiency and capital allocation constraints. While the company demonstrates strong margin expansion with gross margins at 79.3% and net margins holding steady at 14.5%, driven by high-margin software revenue, its return on invested capital sits at 9.4%. This figure falls below the estimated weighted average cost of capital of 10.7%, resulting in a negative spread that suggests value destruction relative to the hurdle rate for new investments. Despite this efficiency gap, financial stability indicators remain mixed; the Altman Z-Score of 3.9 indicates a safe distance from insolvency, yet the Piotroski F-Score of 4/9 signals moderate fundamental deterioration or lack of recent improvement in quality metrics. The Beneish M-Score of -3.14 points to low earnings manipulation risk, supporting confidence in the reported profitability despite the ROIC shortfall.
Valuation analysis presents a divergent picture depending on whether one relies on historical multiples or intrinsic value models. Trading at 48.3x forward earnings, the stock commands a premium over its five-year average of roughly 19% and trades significantly below the broader technology sector average of 63.0x, implying the market may be pricing in specific execution risks rather than applying a blanket tech multiple. However, discounted cash flow modeling suggests these premiums are not fully justified by current fundamentals, with a fair value estimate indicating approximately 16% downside potential from current levels. This valuation compression occurs even as implied free cash flow growth expectations remain aggressive at an annualized 17.2%, creating a disconnect between the market's forward-looking assumptions and the DCF-derived reality based on available data points.
Risk factor analysis introduces complexity to the risk-reward profile through specific style factors rather than broad beta exposure. The stock exhibits a Fama-French alpha of 4.40% annually, suggesting it has historically outperformed its benchmark after adjusting for market and size risks. However, this performance comes with distinct characteristic exposures: a Value Factor (HML) of -0.122 confirms a pronounced growth tilt that typically incurs higher volatility during value-oriented market regimes, while the Profitability Factor (RMW) score of -0.064 indicates neutral positioning relative to high-profitability peers. These factor tilts imply that future returns will be highly sensitive to shifts in investor sentiment toward growth versus value strategies and profitability premiums within the technology sector.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 11% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8.7% | 10.7% | 12.7% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $26 | $19 | $15 |
| 3% | $30 | $21 | $16 |
| 4% | $35 | $24 | $17 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $32.64.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.7%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $21 (-16.1%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 18% above its 5-year average P/E of 35.5x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedATEN is currently trading at $27.95, a position that requires contextual analysis against its historical moving averages to determine if the asset is in an uptrend or downtrend phase without specific average values provided. The absence of defined price levels for short-term and long-term moving averages prevents a definitive statement on whether current pricing sits above or below these critical support and resistance benchmarks. Consequently, the immediate trend direction cannot be established solely from the single data point offered. Regarding momentum indicators, no Relative Strength Index (RSI) value is available in the provided dataset to assess short-term market sentiment or potential overbought and oversold conditions. Without this specific metric, it remains unclear whether buying pressure has intensified significantly or if selling dominance might be emerging in the near term. The singular price figure of $27.95 offers a snapshot of valuation but lacks the comparative timeframe data necessary to gauge velocity or trend strength. Investors must await further technical confirmation regarding moving average crossovers and RSI readings before forming a conclusive view on ATEN's trajectory. The current information highlights only the absolute price level within the Technology sector, leaving the dynamic relationship between price action and momentum indicators undefined until additional data points are incorporated into the analysis.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | $0.0600 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-13 | $0.0600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-17 | $0.0600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-08-15 | $0.0600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-15 | $0.0600 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-14 | $0.0600 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-18 | $0.0600 | 0.0% |
| 2024-08-15 | $0.0600 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-14 | $0.0600 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-15 | $0.0600 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-16 | $0.0600 | 0.0% |
| 2023-08-14 | $0.0600 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like HACK or XSW, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell ATEN shares regardless of A10 Networks, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $126M of passive capital is structurally linked to ATEN through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on ATEN's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in A10 Networks, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If A10 Networks, Inc. (ATEN) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies Broadcom Inc (AVGO) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with ATEN. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 8 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
ATEN Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 11 ATEN shares, reducing daily market volatility.
A10 Networks, Inc. (ATEN) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 3.1% of the Amplify Cybersecurity ETF (HACK) and 1.0% of the XSW (XSW). Across 8 tracked ETFs, approximately 7M shares (9.3% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest ATEN Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 8 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
ATEN Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for A10 Networks, Inc. over the past year sits near $17.71 (31% of 252-day volume). The current price of $32.64 trades 84.3% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (31% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
ATEN Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does A10 Networks, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
A10 Networks, Inc. converts 88% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. However, the ROIC-WACC spread is negative (-1.3%), suggesting reinvested capital is destroying shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 25,379 | $27.35 | $694,115.65 |
| 2026-05-12 | 489 | $28.02 | $13,701.78 |
| 2026-05-08 | 967 | $27.27 | $26,370.09 |
| 2026-05-01 | 31,708 | $26.68 | $845,969.44 |
| 2026-04-30 | 5,082 | $26.63 | $135,333.66 |
| 2026-04-20 | 79,787 | $27.55 | $2.2M |
| 2026-04-17 | 79,860 | $26.52 | $2.1M |
| 2026-04-14 | 872 | $24.93 | $21,738.96 |
| 2026-03-31 | 56,300 | $22.36 | $1.3M |
| 2026-03-23 | 217 | $21.46 | $4,656.82 |
| 2026-03-19 | 17,134 | $21.48 | $368,038.32 |
| 2026-02-27 | 4,674 | $19.26 | $90,021.24 |
| 2026-02-25 | 1,195 | $18.99 | $22,693.05 |
| 2026-02-24 | 1,195 | $18.94 | $22,633.3 |
| 2026-02-23 | 1,195 | $19.98 | $23,876.1 |
| 2026-02-09 | 37 | $19.67 | $727.79 |
| 2026-02-06 | 4 | $19.33 | $77.32 |
| 2026-01-22 | 55 | $17.13 | $942.15 |
| 2026-01-07 | 12 | $17.46 | $209.52 |
| 2025-12-26 | 49,942 | $18.00 | $898,956 |
| 2025-12-24 | 44,400 | $18.00 | $799,200 |
| 2025-12-17 | 113 | $18.03 | $2,037.39 |
| 2025-12-15 | 21 | $18.12 | $380.52 |
| 2025-12-10 | 632 | $18.14 | $11,464.48 |
| 2025-11-26 | 4,256 | $17.07 | $72,649.92 |
| 2025-11-14 | 1 | $17.13 | $17.13 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| RDWR | 0.589 | 0.619 | Moderate |
| TENB | 0.517 | 0.472 | Moderate |
| EXTR | 0.514 | 0.447 | Moderate |
| OKTA | 0.486 | 0.483 | Moderate |
| FFIV | 0.470 | 0.457 | Moderate |
| FTNT | 0.464 | 0.404 | Moderate |
| CDNS | 0.454 | 0.445 | Moderate |
| TRMB | 0.432 | 0.391 | Moderate |
| SHOP | 0.431 | 0.374 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare ATEN to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.