Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAUB trades at 16.1x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 19.2x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 0.2. DCF fair value of $645 implies 1581% upside from current prices based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 68% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.1% | 9.1% | 11.1% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $809 | $567 | $432 |
| 3% | $983 | $645 | $474 |
| 4% | $1269 | $753 | $529 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $37.65.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.1%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $645 (+1581.4%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 16% above its 5-year average P/E of 16.2x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedAtlantic Union Bankshares Corporation currently trades at $36.33 within the Financial Services sector, presenting a snapshot where price action must be weighed against underlying volatility and fundamental context to gauge true momentum strength. While the specific drawdown metrics are not provided in this isolated data point, any recent decline from higher peaks would require careful analysis of whether it represents a temporary correction or a structural shift driven by broader banking sector headwinds. The current valuation level sits as a pivotal reference point where market sentiment regarding interest rate sensitivity and loan growth could be tested against historical volatility patterns typical for the industry. The interplay between this price position and unseen recent range expansion suggests that momentum may currently appear fragile if supported solely by short-term technicals rather than robust fundamental earnings revisions or capital adequacy improvements. Financial institutions often exhibit distinct risk dynamics where minor deviations in asset quality or net interest margins can disproportionately impact stock performance, making the $36.33 level a critical zone for observing whether buying pressure is organic or merely reactive to market noise. Without corroborating data on volume profiles or macroeconomic triggers specific to this timeframe, it remains unclear if the current trajectory reflects a sustainable trend line or a precarious equilibrium susceptible to sudden reversals given the inherent cyclicality of banking operations.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | $0.3700 | 0.0% |
| 2026-02-13 | $0.3700 | 0.0% |
| 2025-11-14 | $0.3700 | +8.8% |
| 2025-08-04 | $0.3400 | 0.0% |
| 2025-05-23 | $0.3400 | 0.0% |
| 2025-02-14 | $0.3400 | 0.0% |
| 2024-11-08 | $0.3400 | +6.3% |
| 2024-08-09 | $0.3200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-05-23 | $0.3200 | 0.0% |
| 2024-02-08 | $0.3200 | 0.0% |
| 2023-11-09 | $0.3200 | +6.7% |
| 2023-08-10 | $0.3000 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like KRE or KBE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell AUB shares regardless of Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $335M of passive capital is structurally linked to AUB through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on AUB's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies AMERIS BANCORP (ABCB) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 4 ETFs with AUB. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 15 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
AUB Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 14 AUB shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.5% of the KRE (KRE) and 1.0% of the KBE (KBE). Across 15 tracked ETFs, approximately 10M shares (7.0% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest AUB Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 15 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
AUB Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation over the past year sits near $32.12 (10% of 252-day volume). The current price of $37.65 trades 17.2% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-13 | 220 | $37.04 | $8,148.8 |
| 2026-04-07 | 2 | $36.33 | $72.66 |
| 2026-04-06 | 2 | $36.09 | $72.18 |
| 2026-03-23 | 16,906 | $34.27 | $579,368.62 |
| 2026-03-16 | 75 | $34.30 | $2,572.5 |
| 2026-02-13 | 1,637 | $40.30 | $65,971.1 |
| 2026-02-10 | 13,095 | $41.76 | $546,847.2 |
| 2026-02-04 | 20 | $40.52 | $810.4 |
| 2026-02-02 | 83,978 | $38.84 | $3.3M |
| 2026-01-28 | 214 | $39.32 | $8,414.48 |
| 2026-01-22 | 17 | $39.99 | $679.83 |
| 2026-01-20 | 29,749 | $38.34 | $1.1M |
| 2026-01-16 | 9,599 | $38.36 | $368,217.64 |
| 2026-01-14 | 583 | $36.65 | $21,366.95 |
| 2026-01-13 | 30,901 | $36.75 | $1.1M |
| 2026-01-12 | 4,850 | $37.44 | $181,584 |
| 2026-01-09 | 36,463 | $37.48 | $1.4M |
| 2026-01-05 | 46 | $35.52 | $1,633.92 |
| 2025-12-30 | 2,567 | $36.16 | $92,822.72 |
| 2025-12-23 | 7,341 | $36.53 | $268,166.73 |
| 2025-12-18 | 25,223 | $36.89 | $930,476.47 |
| 2025-12-17 | 11,703 | $36.62 | $428,563.86 |
| 2025-12-16 | 47 | $36.85 | $1,731.95 |
| 2025-12-05 | 4,074 | $34.98 | $142,508.52 |
| 2025-11-28 | 10 | $34.03 | $340.3 |
| 2025-11-26 | 11,254 | $34.26 | $385,562.04 |
| 2025-11-14 | 69,861 | $32.73 | $2.3M |
| 2025-11-13 | 69,861 | $32.71 | $2.3M |
| 2025-11-07 | 295 | $32.36 | $9,546.2 |
| 2025-11-04 | 3,237 | $32.99 | $106,788.63 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| FULT | 0.887 | 0.880 | High co-movement |
| SSB | 0.878 | 0.909 | High co-movement |
| ASB | 0.870 | 0.863 | High co-movement |
| ONB | 0.865 | 0.884 | High co-movement |
| BKU | 0.862 | 0.858 | High co-movement |
| CFG | 0.859 | 0.866 | High co-movement |
| HWC | 0.857 | 0.841 | High co-movement |
| FNB | 0.856 | 0.852 | High co-movement |
| ABCB | 0.855 | 0.861 | High co-movement |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare AUB to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.