American Express Company (AXP)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAXP trades at 22.6x earnings, roughly in line with its sector average of 20.0x. Financial health is average: Piotroski 4/9, Altman Z 0.9. DCF fair value of $258 implies 27% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 10% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 7.9% | 9.9% | 11.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $314 | $233 | $185 |
| 3% | $366 | $258 | $199 |
| 4% | $444 | $293 | $218 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $355.35.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=9.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $258 (-27.3%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 7% above its 5-year average P/E of 21.1x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedAmerican Express Company is currently trading at $313.48, a level that requires contextualization against its moving averages to determine the prevailing trend direction. Without specific average values provided in the available data, it remains unclear whether this price point sits above or below key short-to-medium-term benchmarks such as the 50-day or 200-day lines, which are critical for establishing bullish or bearish momentum. The absence of these comparative figures prevents a definitive assessment of where the stock stands relative to its recent historical performance trajectory at this specific moment in time. Regarding short-term momentum indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) status is not included in the current dataset, leaving an incomplete picture of immediate price velocity and potential overbought or oversold conditions. In a typical analysis, one would examine if the RSI suggests strong upward pressure near 70 or significant weakness below 30 to gauge market sentiment intensity. Since these specific metric values are unavailable, any conclusion regarding the strength or sustainability of recent price movements remains speculative without further quantitative input. The technical landscape for AXP in this snapshot is defined by incomplete trend and momentum data points necessary for a comprehensive evaluation. Investors would need additional information on moving average positions and RSI readings to form a robust view of whether the asset is exhibiting characteristics of an accelerating uptrend, a declining downtrend, or a period of consolidation based solely on standard technical frameworks.
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Dividend History
| Date | Amount | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-02 | $0.9500 | 0.0% |
| 2026-04-02 | $0.9500 | +15.9% |
| 2026-01-02 | $0.8200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-10-10 | $0.8200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-07-03 | $0.8200 | 0.0% |
| 2025-04-04 | $0.8200 | +17.1% |
| 2025-01-03 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-10-04 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-07-05 | $0.7000 | 0.0% |
| 2024-04-04 | $0.7000 | +16.7% |
| 2024-01-04 | $0.6000 | 0.0% |
| 2023-10-05 | $0.6000 | 0.0% |
Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like DIA or XLF, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell AXP shares regardless of American Express Company's individual fundamentals. We estimate $20.9B of passive capital is structurally linked to AXP through 8 tracked ETFs. This substantial passive exposure means that ETF inflows and outflows — not company fundamentals — can dominate daily volume on this stock.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in American Express Company to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If American Express Company (AXP) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC (GS) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with AXP. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 32 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
AXP Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 10 AXP shares, reducing daily market volatility.
American Express Company (AXP) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.1% of the DIA (DIA) and 2.4% of the State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF). Across 31 tracked ETFs, approximately 67M shares (9.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest AXP Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 31 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
AXP Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for American Express Company over the past year sits near $304.42 (9% of 252-day volume). The current price of $355.35 trades 16.7% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | 3,044 | $318.49 | $969,483.56 |
| 2026-06-10 | 404 | $318.38 | $128,625.52 |
| 2026-06-01 | 100 | $316.47 | $31,647 |
| 2026-05-26 | 2,539 | $311.78 | $791,609.42 |
| 2026-05-21 | 1,767 | $309.82 | $547,451.94 |
| 2026-05-18 | 100 | $313.48 | $31,348 |
| 2026-04-24 | 92 | $318.55 | $29,306.6 |
| 2026-04-23 | 747 | $332.90 | $248,676.3 |
| 2026-04-20 | 2,300 | $331.69 | $762,887 |
| 2026-03-25 | 54 | $302.00 | $16,308 |
| 2026-03-24 | 66 | $301.91 | $19,926.06 |
| 2026-03-23 | 20,803 | $295.50 | $6.1M |
| 2026-03-18 | 45 | $300.27 | $13,512.15 |
| 2026-03-13 | 4,333 | $301.89 | $1.3M |
| 2026-03-05 | 9,648 | $311.21 | $3.0M |
| 2026-02-26 | 6 | $327.09 | $1,962.54 |
| 2026-02-20 | 205 | $342.65 | $70,243.25 |
| 2026-02-09 | 205,078 | $359.15 | $73.7M |
| 2026-02-03 | 7 | $352.83 | $2,469.81 |
| 2026-01-21 | 61,410 | $352.19 | $21.6M |
| 2026-01-20 | 100 | $364.79 | $36,479 |
| 2026-01-12 | 2 | $375.61 | $751.22 |
| 2026-01-08 | 8 | $378.22 | $3,025.76 |
| 2026-01-02 | 11,872 | $369.95 | $4.4M |
| 2025-12-29 | 1 | $381.05 | $381.05 |
| 2025-12-26 | 488 | $383.11 | $186,957.68 |
| 2025-12-24 | 134 | $382.19 | $51,213.46 |
| 2025-12-19 | 1,142 | $375.52 | $428,843.84 |
| 2025-12-18 | 37,515 | $375.61 | $14.1M |
| 2025-12-16 | 5,983 | $382.57 | $2.3M |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| MGMXX | NaN | NaN | |
| GVMXX | NaN | NaN | |
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| COF | 0.778 | 0.791 | High co-movement |
| USB | 0.673 | 0.692 | Moderate |
| ASB | 0.670 | 0.665 | Moderate |
| CFG | 0.670 | 0.646 | Moderate |
| KEY | 0.664 | 0.701 | Moderate |
| FNB | 0.659 | 0.655 | Moderate |
| PNC | 0.654 | 0.649 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare AXP to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-07-17.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.