First Busey Corporation (BUSE)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 12.2x earnings — a 39% discount to the sector average of 20.0x — BUSE is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 5/9.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
DCF Sandbox
InteractiveSensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $32 | $24 | $20 |
| 3% | $38 | $27 | $21 |
| 4% | $45 | $30 | $23 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs —.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $27 (+0.0%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.
Balance Sheet Health
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like KBE or KRE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell BUSE shares regardless of First Busey Corporation's individual fundamentals. We estimate $48M of passive capital is structurally linked to BUSE through 5 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on BUSE's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 5 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in First Busey Corporation to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If First Busey Corporation (BUSE) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with BUSE. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 5 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
BUSE Ownership Dynamics
ETFs with Highest BUSE Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 5 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 76 | $27.57 | $2,095.32 |
| 2026-05-26 | 1 | $27.08 | $27.08 |
| 2026-05-22 | 383 | $26.84 | $10,279.72 |
| 2026-05-21 | 17 | $26.79 | $455.43 |
| 2026-05-06 | 197 | $26.56 | $5,232.32 |
| 2026-04-30 | 55 | $25.77 | $1,417.35 |
| 2026-04-24 | 38 | $26.52 | $1,007.76 |
| 2026-04-10 | 7 | $26.95 | $188.65 |
| 2026-03-30 | 897 | $24.62 | $22,084.14 |
| 2026-03-11 | 3,859 | $25.06 | $96,706.54 |
| 2026-03-10 | 437 | $25.04 | $10,942.48 |
| 2026-02-24 | 1,970 | $25.38 | $49,998.6 |
| 2026-02-13 | 262 | $26.44 | $6,927.28 |
| 2026-02-03 | 636 | $25.44 | $16,179.84 |
| 2026-01-28 | 749 | $25.05 | $18,762.45 |
| 2026-01-16 | 35 | $24.86 | $870.1 |
| 2026-01-15 | 69 | $24.20 | $1,669.8 |
| 2026-01-05 | 994 | $23.90 | $23,756.6 |
| 2025-12-31 | 30 | $24.02 | $720.6 |
| 2025-12-15 | 99 | $25.17 | $2,491.83 |
| 2025-12-08 | 132 | $24.02 | $3,170.64 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Compare BUSE to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: N/A.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.