Circle Internet Group (CRCL)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicBelow-average fundamentals indicated by Piotroski score of 3/9; Altman Z of 0.2 falls in the academic distress zone. DCF fair value of $76 implies 23% downside based on model assumptions. Beneish M-Score of -0.80 exceeds the -2.22 academic threshold — earnings quality may warrant further review.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedCircle Internet Group presents a fundamental profile characterized by significant operational losses and weak capital efficiency, evidenced by an ROIC of -2.4% and a negative DuPont ROE driven primarily by a -2.5% net margin rather than asset turnover or leverage inefficiencies. While the Beneish M-Score of -0.80 suggests low earnings manipulation risk, the Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 indicates deteriorating financial health relative to sector peers. Despite these profitability headwinds, revenue growth remains robust at 63.9% year-over-year with gross margins holding steady at 8.7%, creating a dichotomy between top-line expansion and bottom-line erosion that currently suppresses the return on equity.
Valuation metrics reveal substantial divergence from intrinsic value models; while the stock trades below the sector average P/E of 18.0x, it commands a significant premium relative to its calculated fair value of $76 per share according to DCF analysis. This pricing implies an aggressive expectation for future cash flow growth averaging 18.2% annually over the next decade, yet current fundamentals do not support such optimism given the negative spread between ROIC and WACC. The market appears to be pricing in a turnaround narrative that assumes margin expansion will eventually materialize from today's -2.5% net loss position, despite the DCF model currently indicating implied downside of approximately 20.6%.
Risk factors further complicate the investment thesis through negative momentum signals embedded in factor models and insider activity. The stock exhibits a pronounced Fama-French alpha drag of -11.74% annually, coupled with a severe weakness in the profitability factor (RMW) at -3.592, suggesting poor risk-adjusted returns relative to its size and value characteristics. Although it displays a positive value tilt score of 0.965, recent insider flow data showing $59 million in net selling over the last ninety days reinforces concerns about management's confidence in near-term execution or future cash generation capabilities.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 64% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 8% | 10% | 12% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $91 | $68 | $55 |
| 3% | $106 | $76 | $59 |
| 4% | $128 | $85 | $64 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $100.85.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.0%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $76 (-23.3%). Not investment advice.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedCircle Internet Group is currently trading at $111.39, a level that warrants examination against its established moving average envelope to gauge relative positioning within the broader trend structure. Without specific upper and lower band values provided in this snapshot, the precise degree of deviation from recent mean prices remains undefined, yet the current price point serves as a critical reference for assessing potential volatility compression or expansion phases. In financial services equities, such proximity to significant moving averages often signals a period where momentum may be consolidating before a directional shift occurs. The absence of immediate context regarding band width limits speculation on whether this price acts as a resistance ceiling near the upper envelope or support floor near the lower boundary, both scenarios offering distinct implications for future price discovery mechanisms. The interplay between the current valuation and historical averages suggests that market participants are monitoring mean-reversion dynamics closely, particularly given the sector's typical sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts. If the $111.39 level represents a significant divergence from long-term norms, statistical probability often favors a return toward equilibrium unless accompanied by sustained fundamental catalysts or volume anomalies not visible in this isolated data point. Conversely, if this price aligns closely with recent central tendencies, it may indicate a continuation of existing trends rather than an impending reversal. Observers should note that technical setups derived solely from current pricing without historical band parameters require caution when projecting future movements, as the full spectrum of mean-reversion potential depends heavily on where these averages have been positioned over preceding trading
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like ARKK or ARKW, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell CRCL shares regardless of Circle Internet Group's individual fundamentals. We estimate $920M of passive capital is structurally linked to CRCL through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on CRCL's daily trading dynamics.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in Circle Internet Group to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If Circle Internet Group (CRCL) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies TESLA INC (TSLA) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 2 ETFs with CRCL. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 10 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
CRCL Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 23 CRCL shares, reducing daily market volatility.
Circle Internet Group (CRCL) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 4.8% of the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) and 4.7% of the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW). Across 11 tracked ETFs, approximately 10M shares (4.3% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.
ETFs with Highest CRCL Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 11 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
CRCL Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for Circle Internet Group over the past year sits near $81.03 (15% of 252-day volume). The current price of $100.85 trades 24.5% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (15% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 4,506 | $126.57 | $570,324.42 |
| 2026-05-13 | 2,599 | $123.65 | $321,366.35 |
| 2026-05-11 | 281 | $113.67 | $31,941.27 |
| 2026-05-05 | 3,087 | $119.53 | $368,989.11 |
| 2026-05-04 | 2,999 | $99.70 | $299,000.3 |
| 2026-04-30 | 16 | $95.56 | $1,528.96 |
| 2026-04-21 | 547 | $106.36 | $58,178.92 |
| 2026-04-20 | 18,794 | $105.91 | $2.0M |
| 2026-04-14 | 105,134 | $98.68 | $10.4M |
| 2026-04-02 | 49 | $90.74 | $4,446.26 |
| 2026-03-30 | 200 | $93.66 | $18,732 |
| 2026-03-26 | 2,524 | $103.86 | $262,142.64 |
| 2026-03-25 | 2,624 | $101.17 | $265,470.08 |
| 2026-03-24 | 566,838 | $126.64 | $71.8M |
| 2026-03-23 | 2,499 | $126.03 | $314,948.97 |
| 2026-03-20 | 2,303 | $128.33 | $295,543.99 |
| 2026-03-18 | 4,491 | $132.31 | $594,204.21 |
| 2026-03-17 | 315 | $125.83 | $39,636.45 |
| 2026-03-16 | 44,286 | $115.38 | $5.1M |
| 2026-03-13 | 33,455 | $114.18 | $3.8M |
| 2026-03-12 | 54,397 | $112.81 | $6.1M |
| 2026-03-09 | 8,473 | $101.91 | $863,483.43 |
| 2026-03-06 | 23,843 | $105.74 | $2.5M |
| 2026-03-04 | 464 | $99.63 | $46,228.32 |
| 2026-03-03 | 2,543 | $96.14 | $244,484.02 |
| 2026-03-02 | 31,411 | $83.44 | $2.6M |
| 2026-02-27 | 32,219 | $87.21 | $2.8M |
| 2026-02-26 | 61,234 | $83.14 | $5.1M |
| 2026-02-24 | 239,149 | $61.17 | $14.6M |
| 2026-02-23 | 12,566 | $63.02 | $791,909.32 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| COIN | 0.591 | 0.734 | Moderate |
| HOOD | 0.408 | 0.613 | Moderate |
| RKLB | 0.403 | 0.444 | Moderate |
| ARKB | 0.401 | 0.633 | Moderate |
| PLTR | 0.386 | 0.459 | Moderate |
| RXRX | 0.363 | 0.413 | Moderate |
| TOST | 0.358 | 0.452 | Moderate |
| LEU | 0.357 | 0.397 | Moderate |
| RDWR | 0.352 | 0.337 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare CRCL to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.