DexCom, Inc. (DXCM)
Quantitative Summary
DeterministicAt 31.6x earnings — a 51% discount to the sector average of 65.2x — DXCM is in the lower valuation range. Financial health is average: Piotroski 6/9, Altman Z 6.4. DCF fair value of $56 implies 11% downside based on model assumptions.
Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.
Algorithmic Teardown
AI-GeneratedDexCom exhibits robust fundamental economics characterized by a substantial ROIC-WACC spread of 7.1%, indicating efficient capital allocation that outpaces the cost of equity. The DuPont decomposition reveals an ROE of 30.5% driven primarily by high net margins at 17.9% rather than leverage, with an asset turnover of 0.74x and a moderate equity multiplier of 2.31x suggesting earnings power is margin-led. Quality metrics reinforce this operational strength; the company maintains a Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 alongside a healthy Altman Z-Score of 6.5, while a Beneish M-Score of -2.69 signals low probability of financial manipulation. Gross margins remain elevated at 60.1%, supporting revenue growth of 15.6% year-over-year within the healthcare sector.
Valuation analysis presents a divergence between market pricing and intrinsic value models. The current P/E multiple of 29.8x trades below the sector average of 36.8x, yet it implies an aggressive forward trajectory consistent with the DCF model's assumption of 10-year free cash flow growth at 16.8%. However, this implied growth rate results in a calculated fair value of $57, suggesting downside potential relative to current levels rather than immediate upside. The market appears to be pricing in sustained expansion that exceeds historical averages for the firm, creating a scenario where valuation multiples compress if actual execution lags these high-growth assumptions despite the premium over sector peers.
Risk assessment highlights significant factor headwinds alongside insider activity signals. A Fama-French annual alpha of -11.53% indicates underperformance relative to standard risk factors, while recent insider flow shows $179,071 in net selling over 90 days, introducing uncertainty regarding management sentiment near current price levels. These elements suggest that despite strong profitability and margin expansion, the stock faces headwinds from factor-based underperformance and potential internal valuation concerns that could limit near-term momentum relative to its growth profile.
Generated by LLM from quantitative data inputs. May contain inaccuracies. Not investment advice.
DCF Sandbox
Interactive5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.
The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 16% YoY revenue.
Sensitivity Matrix
| TG ↓ / WACC → | 11.8% | 13.8% | 15.8% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2% | $65 | $53 | $44 |
| 3% | $71 | $56 | $47 |
| 4% | $78 | $61 | $49 |
Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $73.45.
Pre-computed DCF: WACC=13.8%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $56 (-10.5%). Not investment advice.
Valuation Context
Currently trading 4% below its 5-year average P/E of 31.9x.
Price Chart with Moving Averages
Technical Setup
AI GeneratedDexCom, Inc. (DXCM) is currently trading at $66.95 within the Healthcare sector, a position that invites analysis through the lens of relative value against its moving average envelope. Without specific SMA boundary data provided in this snapshot, the precise distance from dynamic support or resistance levels cannot be quantified; however, the current price point serves as the baseline for assessing mean-reversion potential. If historical volatility patterns suggest significant deviations from long-term averages often precede corrections toward those bands, one might hypothesize whether $66.95 represents an extended move away from equilibrium or a consolidation near it. The absence of explicit envelope breaches in this limited dataset prevents definitive conclusions regarding immediate overbought or oversold conditions relative to trend lines. Market participants examining this setup would need to correlate the $66.95 level with broader volatility indices and historical standard deviations to gauge if the stock is statistically distant from its mean. In a strict relative-value framework, prices trading far outside their moving average envelopes frequently exhibit tendencies to revert toward central tendency, whereas those hugging the bands may signal continued momentum or potential exhaustion depending on volume profiles not present here. The current valuation sits at a specific juncture where the interplay between recent price action and longer-term trend filters remains undefined without additional context on envelope width or slope. Ultimately, determining whether this level offers attractive entry points for mean-reversion strategies depends heavily on how $66.95 compares to the invisible boundaries
Quant Health Deep Dive
Profitability & Value Creation
DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition
Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.
Balance Sheet Health
Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)
Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.
Earnings Surprise History
EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.
Risk Profile
Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.
Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)
How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.
Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)
How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.
Fama-French 5-Factor Exposure
Academic factor model decomposition — what's really driving this stock's returns.
Fama-French 5-Factor Model. Data: Kenneth French Data Library. Regression over 3 years of daily returns.
Fundamentals
Passive Flow Attribution
ETF Draft EffectWhen investors buy or sell ETFs like XHE or VOT, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell DXCM shares regardless of DexCom, Inc.'s individual fundamentals. We estimate $4.1B of passive capital is structurally linked to DXCM through 8 tracked ETFs. Index rebalances and ETF creation/redemption cycles can create noticeable volume spikes unrelated to company news.
Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.
ETF Contagion Visualizer
Simulate a price drop in DexCom, Inc. to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.
If DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies ELI LILLY + CO (LLY) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 1 ETFs with DXCM. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.
Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 29 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.
DXCM Ownership Dynamics
Passive funds hold 1 in every 6 DXCM shares, reducing daily market volatility.
DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) exerts notable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.9% of the XHE (XHE) and 0.5% of the VOT (VOT). Across 29 tracked ETFs, approximately 69M shares (17.8% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. This level of passive ownership means index rebalances can create outsized volume events.
ETFs with Highest DXCM Exposure
Float lock-up computed from 29 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).
DXCM Institutional Volume Profile
252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks — the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.
The highest-volume price zone for DexCom, Inc. over the past year sits near $67.56 (13% of 252-day volume). The current price of $73.45 trades 8.7% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target. The highly concentrated volume profile (13% at POC) indicates strong consensus on fair value — institutional participants have repeatedly transacted near this price.
Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.
DXCM Capital Efficiency
How efficiently does DexCom, Inc. convert operating profits into free cash? The FCF Conversion ratio measures the gap between accounting earnings and real cash generation.
DexCom, Inc. converts 79% of its EBITDA into free cash flow, an exceptional conversion rate indicating an asset-light business model with minimal capital reinvestment drag. The positive ROIC-WACC spread of 7.0% confirms that reinvested capital creates shareholder value.
Capital efficiency = Free Cash Flow ÷ EBITDA. Reinvestment = (EBITDA − FCF) ÷ EBITDA. Metrics from latest annual filings. Not investment advice.
Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History
SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.
| Date | Failed Shares | Close Price | Notional Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 300 | $60.61 | $18,183 |
| 2026-05-06 | 7,439 | $59.48 | $442,471.72 |
| 2026-05-01 | 38 | $59.55 | $2,262.9 |
| 2026-04-30 | 820 | $57.56 | $47,199.2 |
| 2026-04-24 | 12 | $62.70 | $752.4 |
| 2026-04-20 | 1,597 | $63.98 | $102,176.06 |
| 2026-04-17 | 1,130 | $61.23 | $69,189.9 |
| 2026-04-16 | 8 | $61.54 | $492.32 |
| 2026-04-15 | 3 | $62.95 | $188.85 |
| 2026-04-14 | 1,572 | $63.12 | $99,224.64 |
| 2026-04-08 | 6,044 | $63.11 | $381,436.84 |
| 2026-04-07 | 6,070 | $63.21 | $383,684.7 |
| 2026-04-01 | 16 | $62.80 | $1,004.8 |
| 2026-03-25 | 668 | $66.60 | $44,488.8 |
| 2026-03-24 | 145,266 | $65.94 | $9.6M |
| 2026-03-23 | 487,024 | $66.95 | $32.6M |
| 2026-03-20 | 172,907 | $67.27 | $11.6M |
| 2026-03-17 | 63 | $66.34 | $4,179.42 |
| 2026-03-12 | 8,667 | $66.31 | $574,708.77 |
| 2026-03-11 | 162 | $67.79 | $10,981.98 |
| 2026-03-06 | 194,434 | $70.69 | $13.7M |
| 2026-03-02 | 37,849 | $73.43 | $2.8M |
| 2026-02-09 | 1,032 | $69.97 | $72,209.04 |
| 2026-02-03 | 60 | $72.53 | $4,351.8 |
| 2026-01-26 | 6,285 | $72.86 | $457,925.1 |
| 2026-01-20 | 400 | $69.54 | $27,816 |
| 2026-01-15 | 18,767 | $69.70 | $1.3M |
| 2026-01-13 | 45 | $70.98 | $3,194.1 |
| 2026-01-07 | 1,590 | $69.89 | $111,125.1 |
| 2026-01-06 | 1,705 | $67.65 | $115,343.25 |
Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.
Price Correlations
Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.
| Peer | 252-Day (1Y) | 126-Day (6M) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTGXX | NaN | NaN | |
| SYK | 0.360 | 0.414 | Moderate |
| ADPT | 0.355 | 0.255 | Moderate |
| ALGN | 0.340 | 0.329 | Moderate |
| RMD | 0.335 | 0.407 | Moderate |
| CUBE | 0.326 | 0.256 | Moderate |
| BEN | 0.322 | 0.302 | Moderate |
| BAX | 0.309 | 0.327 | Moderate |
| RXO | 0.308 | 0.334 | Moderate |
| ATI | 0.301 | 0.262 | Moderate |
Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.
Compare DXCM to Peers
Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.
SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.