HWC (HWC)

$68.70
+2.02%
$5.5B
Market Cap
14.0
P/E Ratio
0.98
Beta
2.79%
Dividend Yield
Piotroski 7/9Altman Z 0.3 Distress

Quantitative Summary

Deterministic

Strong operational fundamentals (Piotroski 7/9) with Altman Z of 0.3. DCF fair value of $57 implies 16% downside based on model assumptions.

Generated deterministically from quant metrics and financial statements. Not a recommendation.

DCF Sandbox

Interactive
Market Price
$68.70
Fair Value
$57
Implied Upside
-16.4%
$57IMPLIED FAIR VALUEOVERVALUEDOVERUNDER
Growth Rate (Y1–5)-6%
-10%20%50%
Discount Rate (WACC)10.9%
5%12.5%20%

5-year two-stage DCF. Terminal growth 3%. Default sliders match the pre-computed base case. Drag to explore scenarios. Not investment advice.

Reverse DCFMarket-Implied
0.7%annual FCF growth priced in at $68.70

The growth rate the market implicitly expects over the next 10 years to justify today's price. Compare with historical growth of 5% YoY revenue.

Sensitivity Matrix

TG ↓ / WACC →8.9%10.9%12.9%
2%$66$53$45
3%$74$57$47
4%$84$62$50

Center = base case. Green = >10% upside, Red = >10% downside vs $68.70.

Pre-computed DCF: WACC=10.9%, terminal growth 3%. Fair value $57 (-15.6%). Not investment advice.

Price Chart with Moving Averages

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SMA 50 SMA 200

Technical Setup

AI Generated

The current price level of $66.66 for HWC presents a snapshot where immediate risk dynamics are difficult to fully contextualize without historical drawdown data or volatility metrics, as the provided figures lack the temporal depth required to distinguish between structural momentum and fragile positioning. In isolation, this single data point does not reveal whether recent gains have been supported by broad-based participation or concentrated in specific market segments that could be susceptible to sharp corrections if underlying fundamentals shift. The absence of trend indicators, such as moving averages or relative strength measures, leaves the trajectory undefined; consequently, it remains unclear if the asset is exhibiting resilience against broader market headwinds or merely riding a short-term speculative wave prone to rapid reversal. From a risk management perspective, the lack of volatility context means that potential downside scenarios cannot be quantified at this stage. Without knowing how sensitive the price has been to recent news flows or macroeconomic changes, one cannot assess whether the current valuation reflects intrinsic value or temporary market dislocation. The fundamental backdrop is equally opaque in this limited view, preventing an evaluation of whether earnings quality or sector tailwinds are providing a durable floor for the stock. Ultimately, while the price sits at $66.66, the technical narrative remains incomplete regarding sustainability, requiring further analysis of historical drawdowns and volatility profiles to determine if current momentum represents a robust trend or a precarious state awaiting external catalysts that could alter its direction significantly.

RSI (14)
SMA 50
SMA 200

Quant Health Deep Dive

7/9
Piotroski F-Score
Strong — high operational efficiency and profitability signals
0.3
Altman Z-Score
Distress Zone — below 1.8 threshold per academic model. Thresholds: >3 safe, 1.8–3 grey, <1.8 distress.

Profitability & Value Creation

32.2%
Net Margin
10.9%
WACC
+4.9%
Revenue Growth (YoY)
+5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
523.1M
Free Cash Flow
29%
FCF Payout Ratio

✅ Conservative payout — room for dividend increases.

DuPont Analysis — ROE Decomposition

Breaking down Return on Equity to see how the company generates its ROE — efficiency, margins, or leverage.

32.2%
Net Profit Margin
NI ÷ Revenue
×
0.04x
Asset Turnover
Revenue ÷ Assets
×
7.95x
Equity Multiplier
Assets ÷ Equity
=
10.9%
Return on Equity
⚠️ High equity multiplier — ROE is being amplified by leverage, not operational excellence.

Balance Sheet Health

6.95x
Debt / Equity
10.47%
FCF Yield

Insider Activity (Last 90 Days)

Net Insider Flow
-$5M
Net Selling
0
Buy Transactions
3
Sale Transactions
2026-02-27ACHARY MICHAEL MSold 2/8 qtrsGrant$386,418
2026-02-27HAIRSTON JOHN MICHAELSold 3/8 qtrsGrant$1M
2026-02-27LOPER DOUGLAS SHANEGrant$594,000
2026-02-27ZILUCA CHRISTOPHER S.Sold 1/8 qtrsGrant$240,034
2026-02-27OTERO MICHAELGrant$220,031

Open-market buys vs sells by company insiders. Source: yfinance.

Earnings Surprise History

Q4
✓ Beat
Est: $1.29
Act: $1.38
+7.1%
Q3
✗ Miss
Est: $1.36
Act: $1.32
-3.0%
Q2
✓ Beat
Est: $1.43
Act: $1.49
+4.0%
Q1
✗ Miss
Est: $1.49
Act: $1.49
-0.1%

EPS estimates vs actuals for the most recent reported quarters. Source: yfinance.

Dividend History

$0.5000
Latest Dividend
$1.80
2025 Total
+20.0%
YoY Growth
3 yrs
Consecutive Increases
Annual Dividends per Share
$0.72
2016
$0.96
2017
$1.02
2018
$1.08
2019
$1.08
2020
$1.08
2021
$1.08
2022
$1.20
2023
$1.50
2024
$1.80
2025
$0.50
2026
DateAmountChange
2026-03-05$0.5000+11.1%
2025-12-05$0.45000.0%
2025-09-05$0.45000.0%
2025-06-05$0.45000.0%
2025-03-05$0.4500+12.5%
2024-12-05$0.40000.0%
2024-09-05$0.40000.0%
2024-06-05$0.4000+33.3%
2024-03-04$0.30000.0%
2023-12-04$0.30000.0%
2023-09-01$0.30000.0%
2023-06-02$0.30000.0%
Stock Splits
2004-03-19: 2:12002-08-06: 1.5:11996-12-03: 1.15:11991-11-05: 2:1

Dividend and split data from SEC filings and market data. Amounts are per share, not adjusted for splits. Source: yfinance.

Risk Profile

33.7%
Annual Volatility
1.16
Sharpe (1Y)
0.74
Sharpe (3Y)
-25.8%
Max Drawdown (3Y)
-41.9%
Max Drawdown (5Y)

Sharpe = risk-adjusted return (higher is better). Max drawdown = largest peak-to-trough decline. 1,200+ trading days.

Underwater (Drawdown from Peak)

How far below the all-time high the price has been over time. Deeper = more pain for holders.

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Rolling 60-Day Beta vs S&P 500 (VOO)

How the stock's sensitivity to market moves changes over time. β > 1 = more volatile than the market.

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Rolling Beta Market (β = 1.0)

Fundamentals

9.4
Forward P/E
1.76
PEG Ratio
1.25
Price/Book
876630
Avg Volume
$75.43
52W High
$52.89
52W Low
70%
52W Range Position

Passive Flow Attribution

ETF Draft Effect
$452M
Tracked Passive Exposure
8
ETFs Holding HWC
0.09%
Avg Weight in ETFs
$494B
Total ETF AUM

When investors buy or sell ETFs like KRE or KBE, the fund manager is mechanically forced to buy or sell HWC shares regardless of HWC's individual fundamentals. We estimate $452M of passive capital is structurally linked to HWC through 8 tracked ETFs. Passive flows have a limited but growing influence on HWC's daily trading dynamics.

Passive exposure = Σ (ETF AUM × stock weight in ETF) across 8 tracked ETFs. Actual passive ownership is larger (includes mutual funds). Not investment advice.

ETF Contagion Visualizer

Simulate a price drop in HWC to visualize passive redemption contagion across ETFs and collateral stocks.

HWC Shock
-0%
Est. Passive Redemption
$0
Systemic Risk
STABLE
HWCEpicenterVBETFVYMETFVXFETFPNFPHigh RiskEWBCHigh RiskUMBFHigh RiskFHNHigh RiskWBSHigh Risk
HWC Price Drop (%)0

If HWC (HWC) experiences a significant drawdown, ETF redemptions can create collateral selling pressure on co-held stocks. Our model identifies PINNACLE FINANCIAL PARTNERS (PNFP) as the most exposed collateral stock, sharing 4 ETFs with HWC. This is the "Passive Contagion" effect described in the Inelastic Market Hypothesis.

Contagion model based on shared ETF exposure and constituent weights across 13 tracked ETFs. Estimated selling pressure is a simplified model — actual impact depends on market liquidity, ETF redemption mechanics, and market-maker activity.

HWC Ownership Dynamics

Passive funds hold 1 in every 11 HWC shares, reducing daily market volatility.

Ticker
HWC
Total Shares
81M
ETF Lock-Up
8.9%
Display Mode
Total Float Impact
8.9%Locked Float

HWC (HWC) exerts measurable gravity on the passive index market, currently representing 1.5% of the KRE (KRE) and 1.0% of the KBE (KBE). Across 13 tracked ETFs, approximately 7M shares (8.9% of float) are held by passive funds and rarely trade on the open market. As passive ownership grows, index inclusion changes may increasingly drive price discovery.

Float lock-up computed from 13 ETFs tracked by SecuritiesDB. Actual passive ownership is higher (includes mutual funds, pension funds, etc.).

HWC Institutional Volume Profile

252-day volume distribution by price level. The Point of Control (POC) marks the price where the most institutional volume transacted — an implicit support/resistance floor.

TICKER
HWC
PRICE
$68.70
FLOOR (POC)
$61.57
STRENGTH
Medium
$52$53$55$56$576%$586%$599%$60$62POC 11%$6310%$64$65$667%$6710%$696%$68.70$70$71$72$73$74
Focus Zone
Point of Control (POC) Support (below price) Resistance (above price) Current Price

The highest-volume price zone for HWC over the past year sits near $61.57 (11% of 252-day volume). The current price of $68.70 trades 11.6% above this institutional floor — a sign of upside momentum, though a pullback to the POC zone is a common reversion target.

Volume Profile computed from 252 trading days of OHLCV data. Volume allocated to price bins proportionally based on daily high-low range. Not investment advice.

Fails-to-Deliver (FTD) History

SEC-reported settlement failures. Elevated FTDs can indicate high short-selling pressure, operational settlement issues, or naked shorting activity.

DateFailed SharesClose PriceNotional Value
2026-05-11421$68.76$28,947.96
2026-04-1414$67.58$946.12
2026-04-10526$68.27$35,910.02
2026-04-029,114$64.11$584,298.54
2026-03-31900$62.38$56,142
2026-03-302$62.26$124.52
2026-03-1823$61.84$1,422.32
2026-03-0599$66.19$6,552.81
2026-02-2035$70.27$2,459.45
2026-02-126,035$71.41$430,959.35
2026-01-301,350$68.78$92,853
2026-01-2752$67.42$3,505.84
2026-01-263$67.17$201.51
2026-01-232,488$69.21$172,194.48
2026-01-1542$67.43$2,832.06
2026-01-0993$67.95$6,319.35
2025-12-31121$64.40$7,792.4
2025-12-231,678$65.90$110,580.2
2025-12-22281$65.82$18,495.42
2025-12-041$62.93$62.93
2025-12-022,091$61.97$129,579.27
2025-11-28768$60.77$46,671.36
2025-10-31249$56.14$13,978.86
2025-10-2417,258$55.73$961,788.34
2025-10-22464$56.74$26,327.36
2025-10-17794$54.52$43,288.88
2025-10-14395$60.49$23,893.55
2025-10-0715$63.08$946.2

Source: SEC Regulation SHO FTD data. Data is reported with a ~30 day delay. High FTD quantities relative to average daily volume may indicate settlement stress.

Price Correlations

Statistical correlation of daily returns with other stocks. High correlations indicate stocks that move together; negative correlations can offer diversification.

Peer252-Day (1Y)126-Day (6M)Direction
WTGXXNaNNaN
FNB0.8960.886High co-movement
ASB0.8910.872High co-movement
FULT0.8870.886High co-movement
ONB0.8840.882High co-movement
WTFC0.8800.874High co-movement
UMBF0.8730.859High co-movement
SSB0.8690.864High co-movement
ABCB0.8610.873High co-movement
AUB0.8570.841High co-movement

Pearson correlation of daily log returns. 252d ≈ 1 trading year. Computed from price history. Not investment advice.

Compare HWC to Peers

Quant metrics computed deterministically from financial statements and price data. Updated: 2026-06-02.

SecuritiesDB provides programmatic data aggregation for informational purposes only. None of the metrics, summaries, or algorithmic flags constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security.